Nyquist's Vulnerability
 

Lets talk Nyquist's vulnerability:

1) Nyquist has not run out of this world beyer speed figures that would separate him greatly from the field. Matter of fact his best beyer of a 101 was run in a race of less than a mile at 7 furlongs.His Florida Derby win received a 94 beyer, his second best, in comparison Mohaymen has run a 95 3 times, Exaggerator has run a 103, albeit on an off track, 96, and a 98. Creator, Mor Spirit, and Destin have all run multiple races in the mid 90’s.

2) If Nyquist win the Derby he will have the worst dosage points out of all derby winners ever. His pedigree suggest he is distance limited.



what else you got?

Only 2 real preps, one at 7F (WTF was that?) and the other in a romp.

He has beat everybody put in front of him, including some of his generations best in Brody, Exaggerator that he beat in the BC Juvenile, and Mohaymen in a supposed match race in the Florida Derby.

The real question is if he has gotten better, or if a horse (or many) have surpassed him.

He just feels so weak with his connections limping him into this race after only 1 solid prep. He simply screams Verrazano to me.

If he gets into position smoothly behind a moderate pace, he's going to be a handful.

Grade 1 stakes horse.

Very well said and so true. If the pace is moderate and he has no problem sitting right off the lead he likely wins.

The problem I see with Nyquist is he just hasn't run fast enough yet to justify favoritism. Even if this crop is subpar, there are many faster than him.

-Let's use 2 of the more reputable services for figures.. Beyer and TG.
-Let's use the modern era (last 15 years)
-Let's only consider only main track routes (no sprints)

Of the Derby winners in the last 15 years, here are the horses that had slower figures than Nyquist...

Gaicomo- TG only

Mine that Bird- TG and Beyer

Animal Kingdom- TG only (by 1/4 pt) * this was poly which will compress figures

These horses were 50-1, 50-1 and 20-1


Personally I like to get value for my wagers and while speed figures are not the end all be all, I'm not taking 7/2 in a 20 horse field when the horse needs to improve.

Can he win? Sure. Doesn't mean he isn't a horrific underlay.

Once again, 3 favorites in a row and AP winning the triple crown have made some people lose their grip on reality.

just to play devils advocate...

He's beated Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Brody's Cause. If we are talking figures then you cant put a Louisiana Derby horse over him. Destin hasnt even run a 1 1/8 and the Tampa surface is a quircky thing. The Arkansas derby top 2 finishers were closers and Creator ran a 94. Closers rarely win the derby. So i just dont see who can beat him, not this crop. Sure if you put him in a few other crops there are horses Id take over Nyquist that didnt win their respective derbies but this is a weak crop. Its hard for me to pick that many horses that can beat him. The one that comes to mind that I can make a best case for would be Mohaymen if you wanna chalk up the Florida Derby to 2 bad minutes or blame it on the surface he went into that race running 3 beyers of 95. But Nyquist did put him away with ease. I dont know. Pace is gonna make the race, like the previous poster stated if he gets a moderate pace and has no issues sitting right off of them then he is gonna be tough. He has never been passed... ever.

Fair enough. For me it all comes down to odds though. Tough to swallow 7/2 or less...

Let me ask you this though... After Nyquist and Mohaymen, who would you say are the next most likely winners. Not to fill out the tri/super necessarily but for the win spot only.

Man its tough. Im not even totally sold on Mohaymen i mean that Florida derby was terrible and he really hasnt beat anyone.

Creator seems to be improving at the right time but closers in the derby dont usually win.

Exaggerator maybe? I just dont know.


Let ask you a question then if you knew the pace was going to be moderate and Nyquist was going to smoothly get to sit behind the lead would you take 7/2?

What gives Mohayman any shot at all? Why is he on anyone's list of 'most likely winners'?

The big advantage nyquist has is that he just seems to figure out ways to win. He's not my cup of tea but he keeps beating me, I've tried to beat him before to no avail. I think in this race you grit your teeth and bet on a longshot but I wouldn't be surprised if he is right there at the wire Again.

He is on my likely to win short list.
Draw a line through his last race. Beating Nyquist in Florida was not the objective. Beating Nyquist in Kentucky is.

Only two horses have run a faster TFUS fig than Nyquist this year. His red flag is only one 2-turn race for a prep. Does he have the foundation he will need?
I will not leave him off the exotic tickets.

I personally wouldn't take 7/2 even under that scenario. To me, if the pace is moderate, Danzing Candy would be a big threat. I'd make him at least as likely as Nyquist at that point which makes Nyquist 8 to 5 to beat everyone else. I just think there are better options under any pace scenario

[QUOTE=PowerUpPaynter]Man its tough. Im not even totally sold on Mohaymen i mean that Florida derby was terrible and he really hasnt beat anyone.

Creator seems to be improving at the right time but closers in the derby dont usually win.




You're right. Closers never win the Kentucky Derby.

Unless..., in the last 15 years their names happen to be: Monarchos, Giacomo, Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, or Orb.

[QUOTE=Lemon Drop Husker]
would you really say Big Brown, Street Sense, Animal Kingdom, and Orb are closers???

Im talking deep closers not stalkers or mid pack horses

what if....

the pace is moderate, because it always seems we expect a hot pace and it dont turn out that way as of recent, Nyquist's distance limitations come to fruition, and Danzing Candy wires the field? All horses would of floundered based on the pace he ran in the Santa Anita derby...


just a what if..