The Derby
 

:1: Finnick the Fierce (50-1)
:2: Max Player (30-1)
:3: Enforceable (30-1)
:4: Storm the Court (50-1)
:5: Major Fed (50-1)
:6: King Guillermo (20-1)
:7: Money Moves (30-1)
:8: South Bend (50-1)
:9: Mr. Big News (50-1)
:10: Thousand Words (15-1)
:11: Necker Island (50-1)
:12: Sole Volante (30-1)
:13: Attachment Rate (50-1)
:14: Winning Impression (50-1)
:15: NY Traffic (20-1)
:16: Honor A.P. (5-1)
:17: Tiz The Law (3-5)
:18: Authentic (8-1)

You either have to beat Tiz or try some bombers in the gimmicks where there the differences are not that large. I'll cap this more when the updated PPs come out but early thoughts are the :2::10::15::16: are reasonable underneath plays.

Tiz the Law may get Bayern'ed at the start.

easy to put a line through many of these horses

Interesting draw. The three best horses in many fans minds all draw the three outside posts.

Tiz the Law remains my main selection.

Initial thought is:

$1 tri

:17:

w/

:10::15::16:

w/

:2::6::10::12::15::16::18:


$1 tri

:10::15::16:

w/

:17:

w/

:2::6::10::12::15::16::18:

the only thing that amazes me is that there are 18 horses entered this saturday.

3/5 in this field and the post position is basically stealing.

Sad for Art Collector and the connections.

Also cannot believe that one-eyed Finnick the Fierce drew the one hole AGAIN in a big stake!

One hole in the 13 horse Lecomte at Fair Grounds
One hole in the 9 horse Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby
and now
One hole in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby

If not for bad luck ...

Something I've been thinking is what has been the worst prep for a normal derby over the last 20 years? The Wood Memorial easily, even the polytrack Blue Grass has thrown more ITM Derby finishers I believe.

So now we have a horse who has prepped solely in NY and the other thing that caught my eye is those who ran against him and finished way up the track seemed to run tops on bris figures even when out of it (saw this a lot in Wood Memorial figures).

The only difference is what appeared to be a great Travers, so conflicted.

most of finnicks good races came from the rail.

there's no denying his last race was a big turd

It could be worse, #1 post in an 18 horse field is #2 in a 20 horse field, #1 and #20 should be open gates

good info
 

Why does everyone always say this? Post 1 has had 8 winners. That's the 3rd highest number of winners in the KY Derby history. (others being 10 wins and 9 wins).


Post 6, 11, 14, 18 only 2 winners.


Post :17: 0 winners. :eek:

Wonder how the new gate will affect things......


But maybe #1 is his lucky number, since it comes up so often for him? Trying to think of another horse(s) who keep drawing same numbers..........

My issue with the one hole has nothing to do with the statistics.

It was more the idea that he is one LEFT eyed horse - so has no vision to his right. I was hoping to see him to the outside where he could better see the competition. In addition, one of the reports after the Bluegrass was that he ran so poorly because he was getting kickback into his one good eye:

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...entucky-derby/

He'll definitely get that on the inside unless he is go, go, go. I was hoping that on the outside he'd get a little less kickback and be able to give the most true account of himself. Not that I'm expecting him to win, but I think he has a chance to run well.

I love how people say, take back tuck in an save some ground. You may get real lucky but from that far outside with that many horses inside you chances are you are losing ground, and I suspect that Honor AP if they are next to each other is not going to make it easy for him to get inside of him.

Maybe the horse is just that handy he can take back in hand, but even then he needs some luck.

He is lengths better than this field so its probably still ok to be wide on the first turn, needs to save some second turn.

That’s the thing. Yeah, those preps you mentioned have come up weak recently but there’s no mystery about the distance. The Fla Derby has been huge though. He made them look stupid in the Travers. There were a couple good horses in there and they weren’t in the same zip code. You mix him in with some prices and if he has bad racing luck and comes in second ....... it will be a nice payday. It’s like people forget that anything can happen in any horse race. Just last year was one of the wackiest results ever in the history of the Derby. And I have my doubts about the second and third choices after seeing that Travers. I don’t know if Authentic will get the distance and Honor AP is good enough. I’ll be using with prices.