Robert B. Lewis Stakes PPs
 

Betting against gunmetal here. Baffert horse looks like this is the maximum distance he will want. Getting beat by 5 lengths to improbable looks good on paper but idk if I'm sold.

I'll look to take a stab with the Sadler horse Nolo Contesto. Will begrudgingly use GG underneath as well as Kid Cantina who will make his second start on fast dirt and looks to close from off the pace.

Doesn't look to be anything in here that can go with Baffert's horse on the front end. For that reason I think Mucho Gusto wins, to easy for him early on.



I like Gunmetal Gray better in the long run though.

I don't have much to add here. Looks like a weak field. I expect the Baffert to to attempt a theft as there is no other horse that has flashed the same 3/4 speed. I was not impressed with Gunmetal's Sham win but will give credit for making a 4-wide move and get the job done. He could have some company closing from Nolo Contesto and possibly Magnificent Cool if the last out turf tactics are reapplied here.

I'll probably play a :5:/:4::6: trifecta and sprinkle in the :2::3: in the super. Maybe throw the :5: on top a ticket or two in case I get outclassed again.

May be a sloppy track.

That's almost a given unless the race is rescheduled. They cancelled a card couple weeks ago for heavy rain.

Magnificent McCool looks like an interesting play. Turf to dirt. Prat and O'Neill combo 80% win last 60 days. Worked 59.3 5f handily on 19 January.

Soft LP w/an off track . . .
 

Hard to deny the Baffert colt Mucho Gusto in this one.

He shows a nice series of works but none quite Baffert like - blistering w/bullets. I've seen Baffert work em' 7f in 1:25 n/c so the 1:26.2 is nice but relatively soft - the standard being 1:27; the 1:12.3 is sharp. What about his pattern of development? Why enter him @ only 40k, then a G3 @7f? The G1 Los Al was the next logical step, but he was up against it deep stretch w/Improbable. His Achilles appears to be his LP, he may be vulnerable to a late charge deep stretch.

If MG gets the uncontested lead, game over he wires em'. Nolo Contesto shows a good turn of foot early in his last. If Nolo, or anyone else goes w/MG early, MG may be vulnerable late. I figure Sadler sends Nolo, doesn't have any other choice. If Nolo goes w/MG, sets up for Gunmetal Gray. Sad thing is GG's recent speed figures aren't particularly inspiring - he'll need to step up here. Rain most of the afternoon, w/a 70% chance post time.

:4:
:5:
:6:

Mucho Gusto has the high TimeformUS number. He's the one to beat.

Gunmetal Gray's running style isn't good for this pace scenario. If Mucho Gusto fails, it feels like Nolo Contesto is the one since he will get first run.

Easy Shot has a small chance, but I believe the Sham was a weak race.

I just dont see a tremendous amount of talent here unless a horse makes a giant leap forward.

sow's ear
 

I have similar thoughts concerning Nolo Contesto vs. Gunmetal Gray.

Will certainly* glance at the exacta probables to see if 'all' the money comes in for Gunmetal Gray in the exacta under Mucho Gusto,... but it's going to be slim pickings in this short field of six, with only three viable contenders...



*actually change that "certainly" to; "if I'm not busy, or headed out of the house by that time"... Not enough value on paper for me to change my schedule. If I'm not headed out yet, I'll give it a glance...

Can Nolo win outright? Sure, but there's no real negative to Mucho, and it's a poor field(for betting) with little upside(again, for betting, not commentary on Mucho or Nolo). It may be a horse race, and Nolo could happen to win, but it's not any great overlay.

Disappointing because Gunmetal Gray was ripe for a bet-against. He's a very popular horse, and he comes off a great trip vs Coliseum. If I'm lucky Mucho and Nolo will duel and Gunmetal Gray will plod into a pace collapse win, so I can bet against him next time in a full field... but I doubt it.

Gun metal Gray fits the mold of the horse who rounds out the derby super finishing 4th.

Nolo Contesto is scratched.

Track is wet

No surprise that Mucho Gusto won it. Gun Metal Gray had a piece of the back of his left front hoof (looked like it was grabbed) chunked out after the race. Kid Cantina was euthanized.

Anyone see interesting derby prospect Omaha Beach break his maiden yesterday flying by 10... Want to see him step up in class but one to keep an eye on for sure.