Pace Scenario Question
 

What value would you put on the 1/4 mile call in a sprint?
How would you use it with the 1/2 mile call?

What value would you put on the 1/2 mile call in a route?
How would you use it with the 3/4 mile call?

In a sprint, a bettor who ignores the first quarter is going to have a very hard time showing a profit. It is not everything, but on some days it is darn close. (85%)
In a route on the dirt, you have worry about a horse stealing the race. The longer the race, the more you have to worry with cheap horses. (20%)
In a turf route, it does not mean much, I think. I have a lot of trouble with turf routes so I am not dead certain of anything. (5%?)
The usual word of caution here about the lengths back at these calls. Unless you are using Trakus, they are unreliable even at major tracks.
I have never found the second call very useful, but there are people who have.
For Sprints, the BRIS pace rating is very useful but only at the exact same distance over a fast track. I look at the last three races under those conditions and come up with a number I like. Generally two of the three are pretty close together. I average those two. If the third number is higher and the horse quit badly in that race, I know that horse will tie into to a faster horse if it can. I look for horses who have a five point( 2 and 1/2 lengths) or more lead over the rest of the field. They are pretty close to automatic bets. If I see a eight point lead and I can't find a reason not to bet it, then I step my usual bet size a few notches.

In one sense, these are questions which could easily give you the wrong perspective and leave you not being able to see the forest from the trees.

Are you looking to learn pace handicapping, or, are you looking to find a magic bullet. No one piece of data stands alone.

IF we knew the answer we would all retire rich.

My own point of view is that a horse reaches a spot where it can not win unless God himself makes a decree. I prefer my pick to have demonstrated he can stay in the mix or in striking distance.

At the wire 5 lengths go by really fast. The further back the better the horse has to run.

I do not think there is one definitive answer on how to use these calls.

As for first call, a horse that is 10 lengths behind at that point you need to ask yourself, "why am I betting this horse"? You had better know why. In a 6f race you are 1/3 done. See where I am going with this?

RG is right with this one.

GL

Really?

No mention of the pace of the race, so, how can you say that beaten 10 lengths at the first call would be cause for concern?

No mention of what I would refer to as class, nothing about what others has called pace pressure or even the size of the field.

As I said, no data item stands alone and it only becomes relevant when taken in context.

I want to use a pace balancing scheme with some other techniques but I don't want to make my own figures so I'm thinking about using Equibase speed and pace figures which are used in the DRF's simulcast books which is called the Daily Racing Program.

The problem is I need pace figures based on the second call ie; 1/2 mile in sprints and 3/4 mile in routes. The Daily Racing Programs pace figures are based on the 1/4 mile in sprints and 1/2 mile in routes.

I'm thinking I can extract the variant for the 1/4 mile figure and use it to gen up a second call pace figure. But as long as the DRP is giving me a figure for these early points someone may have some insight on a good way to use them which maybe I can consider also using.

Thanks

PBS is a good approach when starting out and making/using your own figures. There are others which will disagree but you have to start somewhere.

PBS does not use the first call, only the second call and final call, at least as I learned it way back when. I'm an old Sartinista (read PIRCO member) and learned PBS and used some of the other tools (TPR) from that era. These preceded what became Energy! which does use all 3 calls.

I believe using PBS and making your own "figures" is a first step. It will give you an appreciation for the process and the raw data itself.

Moving onto using figures from other sources will always be the next step but a word of caution: do you know exactly how those figures are created?

Computing variants for all of the calls is something I can not speak to, perhaps others such as cj would give you some guidance.

What I say is purely a subjective opinion...so feel free to ignore it if you so wish. You will be disappointed with the Equibase figures...and the Equibase pace ratings will disappoint you even more. The 1/4 mile figure is so misleading, that any projection that you make from it is likely to be terribly misleading as well.

That's the theory.
In my own handicapping, I seldom pay attention to the first quarter in sprints.
I find the second call the most important, for my purposes. I do quite well, thank you.

This is my opinion too. Yes...the first quarter appears significant in retrospect...but it has lousy predictive value...IMO. You can't reliably predict the controlling speed today by looking at prior first-quarter times.

I bet you have some good stories.

I respect your opinion thaskalos. Then, what do? What figures do you like?

My experience in 6F sprints is that if a quality speed horse gets away with a very easy first quarter, the race will pick up sharply in the 2nd quarter and make it very difficult for closers to get into the game. If they try, they get used very hard. When the first quarter is very fast, the fast pace often carries over to the 1/2 mile time. However, at 6F, the speed will often carry to a win anyway.

Since you mention pace scenario, how do you incorporate the horse's running style?

I'm really uncertain how you're using the Equibase numbers. And, I did read your subsequent post in this thread.

HERE IS a common type 6f race:

Horse A 23.34 47.00 59.00 71.00
Since Horse B broke 10 lengths off lead;
Horse B 25.34 48.00 59.45 70.90
which means the horse is 5 lengths off lead at call 2 and is running 11.3 second per furlong.

The horse has to run 11.4 for another quater mile.

Impossible...no but you are asking this horse to run 11.35 for 4 furlongs.

gonna be tough