Jockey influence on pace scenario
 

Hi all,

I would be curious as to your thoughts on the following two questions:

1) How do jockeys think/ride tactically based on how they view the potential early speed dynamic of the race (as discerned from the racing form)?

2) Is there anyway to consistently anticipate their riding / pacing strategy?

I have seen examples where the ex-ante pace scenario seems like it would shape up as a fierce pace duel, only to have one of the early runners taken back to stalk. I get that some of this is due to how the horse is feeling that day or my miscalculation of the early pace scenario, but it seems to happen frequently enough to imply that jockey tactics are relevant.

Appreciate any insights into this. If there are any trainers on the board, would be curious as to your view as to how the trainers influence the jockey in this regard as well.

Thanks!

In my limited experience as an owner I can tell you I discuss the probable pace and any possible bias with the general partner before we enter the paddock. He then talks to the trainer. The trainer and rider have also typically reviewed the likely pace scenario. It all gets discussed in the paddock before the race, but the trainer makes the call on instructions based on that specific horse.

Once the gate opens all bets are off. It's kind of like what Mike Tyson says about boxing. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.

If I had to guess I'd say a lot of connections are doing the same thing. That's why you sometimes get races that don't go anything like you expected.

That said, some riders are clearly more aggressive than others and some may be more prepared going into the race by looking at the PPs.

Nothing more powerful than a rider who thinks it is a smart thing to do to totally negate a good speed horse's main advantage by strangling him out of the gate.

Whatever track you play, watch some races - one of the most important factors is how the knucklehead in the saddle decides to ride. Chokers can be thrown out many time and pushers can be played.

Watch some races with Luis Saez and Irad Ortiz for examples.
Maybe some Kendrick Carmouche.

You pace set up evaluation must include the rider.

I would say a choker trumps a good speed horse everyday.

can't wait to address this-when I get time. great topic.

Thanks for the good insights, Tom and classhandicapper. Would love to hear your insights on this too when you get a chance, Mountainman.

I try to put myself in the jockey, trainer, or owner's shoes on this one and envision a few scenarios with my horse:

1) My horse has the best natural speed in the race. To Tom's point, the optimal strategy from the connections perspective would be for the jockey to ride for speed, get the early lead, and hopefully hold off the closers

2) My horse would be a contender for the early lead if he went for it, but I could see others going for the lead (and gaining it) as well. Couple of options here. First, I could roll the dice and hope that the other riders are more passive going after the lead and maybe I could sneak away. Two, I could hold back a bit at the start, get a sense for what the other early speed runners are doing, and then make a decision based on that whether to go to the lead or press.

3) My horse will not likely make the lead (either he's not fast enough early or there are too many other likely speed horses that my odds of ending up in a pace battle are fairly high). In this case, it would seem the only solution is to go mid-pack in a pressing position.

It seems like this could be a fairly complicated game theory question.

Appreciate your reactions to this or any other original thoughts you might have.

Here is some basic Jockey Data for NYRA.

It breaks down each rider by Turf and Dirt for just his mounts at the NYRA tracks over the last 5 years or so. Only riders with a minimum of 25 mounts are included.

It gives his horses' average positions at the 1st call, 2nd call, and finish. It also gives the average field size and average distance. That should give you a good feel for the level of aggressiveness for each rider on average.

I can break this down by specific track, specific distance, specific course, in races where the horse was the only speed, in races where there was a lot of speed etc.. I could also check ROI in any of those combinations, but the more you refine it, the smaller the samples get.

I have always felt that for the most part a horse is a prisoner of his running style. The truly versatile runner is much rarer. The jockey tactics are relevant in the outcomes but predicting them with any accuracy is doubtful for the most part I would think. I mean I have no idea what the jock is thinking or what the trainer is telling him. Horses sometimes resent being held back and then won't run or get discouraged etc. When I see confirmed speed horses or closers I just figure that is they way they are basically going to run.

agree. Its also a rare horse who can be turned into a different run style (closer into front runner, front runner into closer) and run a top race.

The other thing is that these are not machines and they are animals, running in races that are developing dynamically. Its very easy to say this horse should have been here or whatever but in reality its not that easy.

This is spot on, imo. In writing my own pace analysis program, trying to predict trainer intent or jockey riding is more likely to introduce more error than any actual benefit.

Here's an update broken down by the horse's running style with ROI figures (which probably aren't particularly useful given the small sample sizes).

But at least you can see how aggressive each rider was on certain types of horses on each surface (minimum 25 starts). Running styles are adjusted for distance, surface, and give extra weight to more recent races over older ones.

PS = Pure Speed - horses that have been going for the lead almost every time

FR = Front Runner - horses that have been going the lead or are comfortable sitting a close 2nd

NFR = Near Front Runner - horse that have been laying close to the pace

OFF = all others

Impact
 

Perfect example in the last race, Race 4 at Parx today
the 5 is a speed horse, no doubt about it, and the 3-2 Fav, the Jockey is a 6% win Jock and personally have seen him asleep more than once out of the gate and the only reason I didn't play, the horse was just slow enough out of the gate to get hung between two Midpack horses, and behind a closer, then Garcia let him go after the horses ahead burning the horse up running against his natural style, should have cleared this field easily but because of a mediocre-Poor Gate Jock, it wasnt a lot just a slight delay getting out, it lost all chance, so many times a day a million things can happen because of a simple, split second Human error or decisions, it has a huge impact on the outcome of just about every race. IMO anyway