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-   -   Monday Funday Longshots (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137640)

Ray2000 04-10-2017 07:03 AM

Monday Funday Longshots
 
If the Good day/Bad day pattern continues, this should be a "Good day" :D

Dover R2.........#1 Northern Rocknroll-6/1........Davis, Allan

Meadows R2.......#7 Miss Pinky Pie-8/1............Wilder, Mike
Meadows R3.......#1 Royaltyhasarrived-6/1.......Brown, Brady
Meadows R8.......#1 My Femme Fatale-6/1......Wilder, Mike
Meadows R13......#7 If I Didnt Dream-6/1.......Zendt, Brian

Miami Valley R2..#4 Mattox'S Western-20/1....Sutton, Josh

Northfield R2....#7 Boytown-12/1.....................Smith, Trevor
Northfield R8....#5 Mr De Luca-6/1...................Wrenn, Ronnie Jr
Northfield R11...#9 Finding Terror-6/1...............Stahl, Ryan

Pocono R2........#8 Fresh Squeezed-6/1.............Napolitano, Geo
Pocono R13.......#4 Pointe Of Honour-9/2..........Napolitano, Geo

Pompano R8.......#3 Mckenzie'S Star-7/1...........Paquet, Fern Jr

Plainridge R6....#2 Fancy Footwork-6/1............Merton, Gregory

Woodbine R4......#8 Ocaptain Mycaptain-5/1....Drury, Jonathan L
Woodbine R5......#6 Pick Up The Tab-8/1..........Macdonald, James A
Woodbine R6......#2 Lisvinnie-5/1....................Roy, Louis Philippe

Good Luck All

sharkey11 04-10-2017 09:53 AM

lets hope so ray :headbanger: ray ive got one for your database to look at try horses coming off a bad qualifyer 4th or worse and going off @ 4-1 and up thanks

EdZone 04-10-2017 11:52 AM

Monday, April 10 Longshots
Betting Win/Place/Show

Monticello
R3 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps41fd60b9.jpg I Deal Vic (8-1) (1:30)

Miami Valley
R5 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psa26dd8f8.jpg Pepstepn' Penelope (15-1) (3:35)

The Meadows
R11 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg Global Appeal (12-1) (4:20)
R12 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psa26dd8f8.jpg Bad Glamour Girl (6-1) (4:40)

Western Fair
R4 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg The Roadies (7-2) (7:15)

Northfield
R8 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg Mr De Luca (5-1) (8:20)

Woodbine
R5 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps7e38cdc5.jpg Rose Run Reanna (9-1) (8:50)

Yonkers
R9 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps6ae6ebd1.jpg Shortstory Hanover (15-1) (9:50)

Good Luck Ray, hope you change the pattern today.
I truly believe bad luck mode to good luck mode.

LottaKash 04-10-2017 12:32 PM

Throwin my hat in the ring today..

10R - MVR... #10 - GENTLEMAN FRIEND...

A very cheap and paceless bunch in here...

#10 - This 10yr-old is making only his 3rd start off of a layoff since Aug-16. but seems very fit now..
- Has a super good TM-SR in last, and a Pace-pattern to boot to go along with that...
- Good solid try in last..
- Picks up a nice driver change to boot...suggesting more will come today..
- Need only be in position turning the last corner, or, a well timed jump/move should be enough vs. these..
- Price, probably overbet, we'll see..

Ray2000 04-10-2017 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkey11 (Post 2150953)
lets hope so ray :headbanger: ray ive got one for your database to look at try horses coming off a bad qualifyer 4th or worse and going off @ 4-1 and up thanks

sharkey11
Bad Qualifier and going off long? Just checking, maybe you meant < 4/1

sharkey11 04-10-2017 03:56 PM

finshing 4th or worse in qual. and next race after the qual. race with 4-1 or higher odds . thanks

Ray2000 04-10-2017 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkey11 (Post 2151062)
finshing 4th or worse in qual. and next race after the qual. race with 4-1 or higher odds . thanks

Removed double, triple qualifiers, base is last 14 months
Code:

               
6311        # of starters finishing >=4 in Qualifier       
5447        # of starters off at >=4 odds next race       
211        Won        3.3%
 $3,436        Return       
0.63        ROI on betting the 5,447 starters

Did this quick, hope it's correct

sharkey11 04-10-2017 06:34 PM

thank you sir looks good to me .but not the results i was hoping for oh well ill try to find another angle .again many thanks :bang: too much chalk in this game i guess

Ray2000 04-10-2017 07:20 PM

Slight correction. I had to eliminate some double Qs where the condition was Qua T, QUA 2yr etc that did effect the 1st number (should be 6093) but the other numbers were unaffected as posted above.

Reason for posting is I looked at those same starters for bad Qualifier but bet down equal to or below 4/1 and the numbers are a little better there.

Code:

                       
6093        # of starters finishing >=4 in Qualifier               
669        # of starters off at <=4 odds next race               
210        Won        3.4%       
 $590        Return               
0.88        ROI on betting the 5,447 starters


tyler522 04-10-2017 11:12 PM

Ray , have been using ur Win &, ROI criteria for Yonkers, & have notice much better results on Saturday cards.During the week, very mediocre performance , however Sat. card has been profitable.Any test u can run , maybe correlating the better horses running truer to the TM numbers & Yr earnings ?Any thoughts on this, would be greatly appreciated.Thanks in advance.

EdZone 04-11-2017 12:54 AM

Monticello
R3 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps41fd60b9.jpg I Deal Vic (8-1) Scratched/Refund

Miami Valley
R5 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psa26dd8f8.jpg Pepstepn' Penelope (15-1)

The Meadows
R11 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg Global Appeal (12-1)
R12 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psa26dd8f8.jpg Bad Glamour Girl (6-1) Place $4.50 $4.10

Western Fair
R4 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg The Roadies (7-2) Win $7.10 $4.00 $2.60

Northfield
R8 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...psf9335253.jpg Mr De Luca (5-1) Win $5.40 $3.50 $2.80

Woodbine
R5 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps7e38cdc5.jpg Rose Run Reanna (9-1) Place $5.80 $4.70

Yonkers
R9 http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e2...ps6ae6ebd1.jpg Shortstory Hanover (15-1) (9:50)

Ray2000 04-11-2017 06:04 AM

Results:
 
Johnny
Tough to get beat by a 50/1 shot.. but I'm guessing you put the wallet away on that 2/1...

Tyler
I see your point on classier races but hard to quantify with numbers.
btw, the 0.88 roi above was on the 669 starters who met those conditions.

As for me
The way my bets have been going lately, I'm counting this as a good day, :D 'Pattern' holds!
Did catch a 17$ show bet
Code:

                       
Track        Race        Finish        Return (W/P/S)
DD        2        Place        $12.20
MEA        2        Place        $7.00
MEA        3        Win        $19.40
MEA        8               
MEA        13               
MVR        2        Show        $17.60
NFLD        2               
NFLD        8        Win        $11.60
NFLD        11        Show        $4.20
PCD        2               
PCD        13               
PPK        8        Place        $10.00
PRC        6        Show        $2.60
WDB        4               
WDB        5               
WDB        6        Place        $10.40
       
Bet        $96.00        Return        $95.00


LottaKash 04-11-2017 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000 (Post 2151259)
Johnny
Tough to get beat by a 50/1 shot.. but I'm guessing you put the wallet away on that 2/1...

Yeah, that sucked, losing, haha..

But Ray, you know as well as me that the #10-@MVR is a trailer, and sometimes that is a tricky proposition...Sometimes a ready made "contending positon" will emerge, or a bleak or worse mid-pak start...In this case, a terrible start, and a worse case scenario given the middle fraction..lt was hopeless from thereon, haha..

Still,I have been doing quite well this season with the Trailer @MVR...

And, lately I am taking 7/5 with good results...So, I would always make that play @2/1...But, I was bettin' that he would get away good, haha...


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