G3 $500k Ohio Derby Sat. 6/25 r11 Thistle
 

Who do you like? Any opinions on these horses?

:7: Tawny Port has a lot of potential. We haven't seen his best dirt races yet. His Kentucky Derby was fine. I can't really separate him from White Abarrio, but it's possible he's a lot better or slightly worse.

:5: White Abarrio has proven to be a G2/G3 type. May have some tactical edge on Tawny Port, but I don't see it as significant.

Unfortunately, it's nothing go crazy betting on, as they are obvious.

Could be a Tawny Port Win bet?? if he's higher and around 4/1. Not sure we'll see that. Ml actually made Tawny Port the ml fav '3/1'.


:8: Classic Causeway has clearly been a notch below these, but some 'wildcard' apprehension that he may improve with the trainer change. New barn is not known as a big move-up angle, but trainer has had some runners in recent years. This horse has a possibility to set a moderate pace. However, the :6:Pineapple Man, and :1:Barese are uncoupled, with the :6: good enough to harass a moderate-slow pace.

I'm not sold on :1:Barese or :4: Ethereal Road. They are both nice horses, but seem a reach to win here. Not against them underneath.

:3: Droppin G's is a long shot who can run 4th or maybe 3rd with the right trip. Aside from Tawny Port to win, another play is a $50c SU: :7:/:5::8:/:1::4::5::8:/:3: = $3

$500k purse is a joke. I bet the local horsemen love how all that money is going to walk right out of town with Cox, McPeek, Lukas etc etc.

They could still get a good field with half that purse and allocate some money to daily purses or some minor Stakes that Ohio horsemen will have a shot at.

White Abarrio looks like he will roll.

anyone playing this?
 

wow, the 9th race today has set off some stuff for me.

Doing some due diligence and some coffee, and I'll post if anything good (as the 9th is part of the P5 sequence as well as a late p3, p4, that all lead into the feature Ohio Derby

From a betting perspective the 9th is more interesting to me than the Ohio Derby.
I think Big Truck is maybe the one to beat but not seeing this one going off at anywhere near the 10-1 ML.The 4 First Song was all out to beat a weak field but can probably do a lot better than that.Those two interest me but lots of ways you can go here....some odd stuff could happen here.

Actually, the Tnd card looks far better than the Belmont one. :puke:
Do we really need a 4 horse nothing stake for 3yo fillies that is basically a NW1 Alw? And the Mother Goose, a total disappointment. Wouldn't it be nice to have one or two of those several hundred :rolleyes: stakes they ran on Belmont Day to supplement the lame duck meet from then until the 4th weekend?
Too many stakes.

Unfortunately, TVG is only showing races 10 and 11 at Tdn.

I'll bite on the Ohio Derby.

I see more value and and nearly as much merit in the :1: and :8: as the :5: and :7:. The latter two are legit but hard to imagine playable prices beyond a little coverage in a seven-horse field.

I liked the :8: in the Kentucky Derby and will stick with him here. He started poorly and blew the lead he needed last time. He had no excuse in the Florida Derby. But if you toss that race and forgive the KD, he looks all right.

He didn't beat much in the previous two at Tampa, but I bet that's getting overemphasized. The class figs on those fields are not wildly off this one. He broke sharply both times, and he won against a bias favoring closers in the first of the Tampa pair.

With the :2: out, that leaves only :6: to contest for the lead, who I don't see burning out the :8: in a duel, not to mention prevailing outright. Although he may get dismissed and hold on for a piece, which is worth a bet.

That leaves a close stalking trip pretty open for the :5:, and then :1:. A G1 win in the Florida Derby trumps the 5th showing in the G2 Wood on paper. But you could argue the Wood was the classier race, and the :1: actually ran a better fig, besting any in the :5:'s one-race-longer career. The :1: is the brighter prospect in Maker's uncoupled entries, and looks like a live surprise here.

Then come the "midpack" runners :4: and :7:, who are dangerous as any with only four to pass on the pace. I can't get excited about the :4:, although a Lukas has a sneaky good record with 3yo stakes entrants off this kind of turnaround time. Hard not to use him, but he's my fifth choice.

Lots to like about the :7:—but that's the problem. Did well to finish five lengths back for 7th in the Derby at 80-1. The late bias propelled his win in the Lexington, otherwise about par with this event. He's certainly not a cinch to win and not impossible out of the exacta. Does he even want to go this far?

The :3: was my only toss in the field of eight. More leery of that in the shorter field, but I'll try to do without him given all the other contention.

Hard to carve up clever bets with the modest field size, but the :8: and :1: are bets at fourth and fifth choices. Maybe double-key them in exotics. Try to get at least one of the two faves out of the exacta.

Tough call on the super. Maybe a few aggressive strikes with horses I like and a couple ALL slots to try to catch a surprise. Not sure I can do that without spreading too much.

Seems like a pretty easy race to me.

It is either :5: White Abarrio or :1: Barese

I like a lot of horses in here, but they look to be the cream right now.

play along
 

Race 6 a 20c P6 2/5/267/4,10/5,6/:7:TawnyPort = $2.40

Race 6 10c Su 2457/2457/A/8 = $6

Race 6 $1p3 245/5/67 = $6

Race 6 $1TRI 45/45/1278 = $8 and $1TRI 45/1278/45 = $8

Live Stream link
 

also action r6 dime Su box 2458 =$2.40


I agree on the 4 , 8 in race 9 ... maybe 1,3 can get a piece

R7
I'm against the current chalk #6Woodland Walk... taking some swings

$2 TRI 15/15/12367 =$16, $1 TRI 15/1237/15 =$6

$50c P5 15/267/12348/5689,10/:7:Tawny Port $75

Dutch bet $50 Win on :1: and :5:

6 wins the 7th on the left lead. Much the best. beat me today.

:1: or :8: to win at 4-1 or 4th choice or more
and
:1: or :8: to place at 6-1 or 5th choice or more
or
:1: and :8: to win if they're the same at 5-1 or more

:1:,:8: w/ :1:,:4:,:6:,:8:

:1:,:8: w/ :5:,:7: w/ :1:,:8:
:5:,:7: w/ :1:,:8: w/ :1:,:8:

:1:,:8: --- w/ :4:,:5:,:7: w/ :4:,:5:,:6:,:7: w/:1:,:8:
:5:,:7: --- w/ :1:,:8: --- w/ :4:,:5:,:6:,:7: w/ :1:,:8:
:4:,:5:,:7: w/ :4:,:5:,:7: w/ :1:,:8: ------- w/ :1:,:8:

play along good luck Aerocraft
 

race 8 throwing some opinions at the wall

R8 Thistle $1 P4 467/12348,10/5689/7 = $72


R8 Thistle $1 P4 67/1234568,10/568/57 = $96
R8 Thistle $1 P4 7/1234568,10/568/57 = $48


R8 Thistle $1 P4 67/148,10/568/7TawnyPort = $24

R8 Thistle $1 P4 67/148,10/56/7TawnyPort = $16

also r8
 

:7: Country Club Bobby = Cool name :) , slight overlay due to Irad taking $$ on the 6..., and he was against the pace a little last time while finishing well enough...

:7: $5 win $20 place $100 show

Barese will be a value if you're right.

in the wood he'd have been 4th instead of 5th if not for a crazy head bob. may or may not slightly hel odds today.
Good horse but I'm on 75 , good luck