Donn Handicap discussion
 

I'm looking at Romansh here, as I want a horse that can create enough separation to withstand Will Take Charge late. I think any stalker or closer will be outkicked by Will Take Charge.

What do you think?

Gonna be tough to beat the only Gr1 winner in the field, and he's got two of them - Will Take Charge.
But now may be the best time to try to beat him...off the layoff.

If the price is right I will try with a runner who has had one off the shelf, and a winning one at that, over the track - Revolutionary.
Castellano is 3-4 on his back and the easy win in last could be the springboard. My numbers have his 11Jan race right with his career best, and better may be coming.
Romansh and Lea can be used, but I am against both in the win hole.
Where's the speed?...River Seven? He isn't much compared to these. Rosario should go with Lea and see what they can do out front.

The downside is that Revolutionary is almost guaranteed to be the 2nd betting choice behind WTC and he will go off below his 5-1 ML. I am thinking more like 3-1 or 7-2....and if the Coach has WTC ready they're all running for 2nd.

It's going to be an interesting start, because the speed appears to be from the outside half of the field.

No speed in the race (55-56 fps in FR1 and FR2, with no E horses and low early speed points) so this one could go just about any way. That said I have, in ranked order:

3 Revolutionary
6 Romansh
2 Will Take Charge
8 Lea
1 Uncaptured

Need 2/1 or higher on the top 3 ranks (3 6 2)

I like the #8 Lea for the win.

Will Take Charge has as much right to win this race as anyone in the field. But, with that said I think this is a good place to try to beat him. I going with Romansh in the top spot. He's 2 for 3 at this distance and has put up some decent numbers. But he needs to fire big off the layoff to win. Also, I can't knock those who like Revolutionary. He has a will to win and has run well at GP and at this distance. He needs to take a step forward to win, but he is perfectly capable. Using him in my exotics.

I think the :5: River Seven deserves a look here. :2: Will Take Charge will take some beating but this horse ran "dead nuts" last out over this surface. He also has strung good races together and that last race was his best dirt effort. Stalking position bodes well on this surface. :3: Revolutionary will be coming but it may be too late.

:2: with :7: :5: :6: and
:7: with :2: :5: :6:

:7: Viramundo looks like the only value here. Revolutionary's value has been increased by Falling Sky's win. Lea (beat Jackson bend who didnt do much yday), Neck n Neck dont fare to do much. I expect WTC to win easily, Coach has not been sitting around watching superbowl and wasting time!

The major handicapping issue is that there's no speed in the race. That might compromise some of the horses in the race that have the potential to break out with a good enough race to beat Will Take Charge. So not only do you have to break out enough to beat him, you have to hope to get good enough position to actually accomplish it.

My system has them in the following order.

:3: Revolutionary
:6: Romanish
:8: Lea

It has Will Take Charge in 5th and I believe he can at least hit the board
so I would have to have him included for ex and tri. 3/6,8,2

I might add that my top pick was just barely over my second, so either
stands a good chance at the win.

Instead of the :5:, i actually meant :3: Revolutionary

I'm going long with :9: Bourbon Courage. Second time blinkers, has been working very fast at Palm Meadows. Was second in this race last year beating the third place horse by 5 lengths. He may be the speed.
Putting him on top & bottom with the :2: & :3:

Donn
 

I'm leaning towards :5: River Seven. My hometown trainer Nick Gonzalez has him sharp and he can pull the upset.

From Beachbabe's keyboard to God; I like the :9: too.

I like Revolutionary here.


One seemingly logical pace setup would be:
..:5::6::8:
......
:2::3:


If :3: Revolutionary is sitting on a big race, he could end up getting first run on :2: Will Take Charge (a horse coming off a 72 day freshening & who generally needs every inch of stretch run).

WPS :3:

and Exactas :3: top/bottom :2::5::6::8: