Did Restoring Hope help Justify tactically in the Belmont...?
 

Shortly before the Belmont Stakes was run...my track buddies and I discussed what pace roles Restoring Hope and Noble Indy would play out...I suggested that Restoring Hope would be used tactically to block other horses trying to challenge the lead of Justify, by gatekeeping the 2,3, and 4 path near the front, and that Noble Indy would not likely challenge Justify up front...
...My friends scoffed, and asked me if Baffert really needs such tactics in order for a Justify victory?

Still I wondered why Restoring Hope was in the race...as it turned out, Restoring Hope did exactly that, weaving out and in, before just plain dropping out of it like an impediment anchor in the way of other horses coming on late...if you read the race charts, that’s just how it played out...while Noble Indy ran a hugely uninteresting tactical race and finished dismally, last in fact...from my point of view, it appears these horses were never intended to disrupt the making of history by Justify...any thoughts?

:D

Nobody got a chance to change history. Mikey went out like a shot and won the race old school.

It was a great performance all things considered and nobody had the talent to interfere or challenge. I’m glad that GhostZapper has his name in the pedigree that will be examined throughout history.

Justify reminded me of him just a little today.......

I wish Restoring Hope wouldn’t have been in the race. FloGo taking him to the hot dog stand on the first turn is a bad look.

agree, and Noble Indy didnt have enough out of the gate to do much anyways.

Didnt change anything, just not a good look.

Of course the whole coupling issue was in play with two sets of connections in this field.

Coupled or uncoupled wouldn’t help in this situation, because we all know who was the horse most well intended...

And yes it didn’t change a thing but just a bad bad bad look.

Just a tad more than a bad look...sorry to say...watch the head-on replay at NYRA website...Down the stretch Javy and Florent are having their own little conversation while the race is still running...It looks like they are looking toward the infield at maybe a big screen or something...from the looks of it, they did their job...Hope and Indy herded the field behind Justify and kept the lid on tight until the top of the lane, when both just folded...but it sure does look that way...if you take the time to look...One can only wonder what they were discussing before the race was even over...

So that's who Mike Smith was yelling "YOU DA MAN" and "THANK YOU" to on the backstretch after the pull-up...his minions who helped him win the race, right guys (and gal)?

Is every race fixed? Just curious...

He boxed Bravazo into the rail behind Justify until the last half mile. When Vino Rosso moved up to second Restoring Hope dropped out and was no longer needed. Bravazo couldn't see daylight until the end of the final turn and by that point he had run Baffert's race so long he had no chance. Restoring Hope unquestionably helped Justify.

Going around the clubhouse turn, jock on Restoring Hope tugged the left rein to keep Bravazo pinned down inside Not sure that it made a difference, but it was pretty obvious they did not want a repeat of the Preakness where one entrant took it to Justify. So whether it did make a difference or not, it was pretty obvious that it was intentional.

So, is Justify a good horse or did he beat the best of a bad crop? Maybe the BC can answer that.

Great question.

I got burned by going against him a bit, but didn't have an overall bad day, and it was memorable (the Spring Quality - Sadler's Joy exacta didn't hurt :p).

It was the case that very few shooters really tried very hard, but he did something that I thought would be a little tougher for him in that spot. All of us who went against him were going for the fatigue and others rested angle, and he just did what he wanted. VR and Hofburg did exactly what we thought they would, really, tease the wise guys in us and ultimately, come up short. Gronkowski provided another mindless name or number bet for the masses ...

It sure wasn't a good look because he didn't get a ride like he was in there to get a "piece of it". I don't think you could have planned it any better. Come down on Hofburg then crazily shoot the gap outward between the 4 horses that broke better than you impeding Tenfold and then Noble Indy (not much, but both had to alter course and both were even with Justify until Restoring Hope shot up and through). Then, box in the one presser that got good position and settled behind Justify so that he became a victim of Justify slowing down the pace (23.37 24.74 25.10) without being able to move out and push the issue. When it was happening, I was thinking "what is this horse racing or hockey?"
That being said I don't know if it really mattered because none of these horses wanted anything to do with going out early with Justify and they all were pretty much able to settle into their comfortable positions. Bravazo was in position to go on with Justify and had used that style a couple times before, but Luis Saez elected to rate just behind Justify and not try to stay on his outside.

Bravazo got a dream trip on the rail running 3rd most of the race and he’s a closer! What the heck happened with him? Anyone in horse racing knows if a closer is placed in the second or third tier early on they usually blow away the fields. I would have expected nothing less then second from him.

I don't think Bravazo is a closer in away real way, he was a couple lengths behind Justify and Good Magic down the backstretch in the Preakness and when the top two opened up in their duel of champions into the far turn he lost position, and then closed late, a dream scenario that was not likely to be repeated. His Risen Star he was right with the pace.

Excellent point.



Looked horrible, but I don't think it ever really mattered like you stated.



Justify was a half second faster than the 4YOs and older crowd in the Brooklyn with Hop winning. Heck, Gronk would have been right there at the wire and maybe even won the Brooklyn.



I think the goal posts have moved so far now that many feel Triple Crown contenders need to be extremely tested at every fraction of every race in the series these days to be considered 'great'. 20 horse fields, monsoon weather track conditions, and the grind that is the Triple Crown simply isn't good enough anymore. A Triple Crown winner nowadays needs to face the ghosts of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed before he is ever judged as 'worthy'.

Restoring Hope broke a half a step slow and was sent along early to get a forward position. But the horse became too aggressive and started to run off. Geroux was NOT going to get into Justifys right eye and take away any chance of Justify being able to relax early so he did the only thing he could do. He took him much wider than he normally would have to stay away from Justify.

We will never know if Justify could have dealt with being pinned and had enough left to win but he would not have been clean of outside pressure , doubtful he would have stayed totally within himself and relaxed and allowed to slow down and cut 24 4/5ths for a 48 half and then a 25 1/5 for a 1:13 1/5th three quarters , and then a 24 4/5ths for the mile.

I completely agree with you.
Optics were bad on so many levels.

Sort of made it easier for Smith to hold at a sensible pace. He could keep the slower horse close, and as long as he had that horse just behind his hip he knew he was at a slower pace.

When exactly did :23.1, :48, and 1:13.1 become a 'slow' pace in the Belmont?

No one mentions the "optics" when Cordero used to attack shippers in the Belmont.

Or every racing at NYRA with all the Sheep herders posing as jockeys, or riders grabbing and chocking out of the gate.

The optics I got was this California horse showed them all what a winner looks like. Just like the OTHER California horse did in the Brooklyn.

The "optics" on all the papers this morning were about a great horse winning a TC!

Think of the race as roller derby - Baffert came prepared to stop the jammers. :lol:

Did I see right that the stewards allowed an equipment change well after betting had begun on Restoring Hope?

and the Phipps

As far as the tactics, it didn't matter in the end, but not really a good look either.

yes, that was a crap move, and IMO should have been a scratch of the horse. Very unfair.

I don't think it is so much that those times were slow. It is that they were cut relaxed and well within himself instead of head and head and pinned in a duel which probably would have been the case if Geroux doesn't go to the parking lot on the 1st turn.

Wow, unbelievable. Mind boggling that would be allowed.

What was the equipment change?
Tom- your opinion means zero to me.

I agree Husker. Did some quick chart lookups of recent Belmonts and I don't think one would conclude the pace is slow. The pace is slow relative to what was needed to push Justify, and also relative to the 23.37 first quarter, which was fast relative to the immediately succeeding quarters. The two 50 second half miles- the one from 1Q-3Q and 2Q-4Q- really made the difference in my view. Justify went quick early to establish himself, then got away with some soft middle splits. I happen to think the blocker helped him with that, especially when squeezing Bravazo going around the Clubhouse turn.

The first quarter by the way was the fastest as far as I could tell since Bob and John and High Finance dueled in Jazil's 2006 Belmont. Even one of the more famous Belmont's- Smarty Jones 2004 loss- went 24.33 and 48.65. What killed Smarty were the 47.50 1Q-3Q half, and sub 47 2Q-4Q half. Justify never endured those types of challenges, and he just cruised around there.

Blinkers off.

He was never pinned in Kentucky or Baltimore. What makes anyone believe that Noble Indy would have been able to 'pin' Justify much less put forth a duel better than Good Magic?


The black helicopters. They are circling.

He must be entered that way by rule with a blks. off card from the starter that is turned in at time of entry or before the draw depending on who has the card.

Never said the pace of the race was slow. My point is that Justify has nature early speed and will respond to early pressure. We know Justify could and would have gone faster if someone pushed. IMO, it was easier for Smith to keep the pace sensible for his horse by keeping just in front of a "slower" horse.

C'Mon Man.

Don't try to belittle me.

Not sure what your black helicopters are and I did not type the name Noble Indy at all.

Exactly what are you talking about???

anyone who duals with Justify will not hit the board, its suicide if you ask me. I think you either have to clear him or take back, dueling with a horse of that quality, well, it aint ending well.

Wasn't trying to belittle you. If you took it that way, my sincere apologies.


I just don't see how Noble Indy would have even challenged Justify for the lead coming from the :9: hole.



Promises Fulfilled and Good Magic took it to him and got whipped. Highly doubt Noble would have changed anything even if he took the lead.

I completely agree.

He has shown that . The only thing that would possibly make him more vulnerable would be having to duel on the inside with his right eye covered up. That is a deal breaker for a lot of horses. My guess is he would become more aggressive and retake a forward position and run the other horse into the ground. The question would then be, at what cost if any, would there be at the 1/8th pole.

No way for me to know if he was entered that way, but the announcement came very late, way after the windows opened. I think it was after 1pm ET.

No problem. I think we are talking about different things. I don't think Indy had a prayer of running with Justify. Justify has sprinter type speed and runs all day. That is indeed very rare air.
What I was referring to was Geroux on Restored Hope. Had he not gone way out to get away from a duel, he very well could have compromised Justify's chances. We will never know if that is true or to what extent.
And that would have never happened if Geroux hadn't sent after breaking a half a step slow. But he did send him away from the gate. Pretty sure we all know why but that's not the point.
My point is that the outside horse always has the advantage in a duel especially if you can poke a head in front.
Justify has had great trips mainly because really good horses with speed create really good trips most of the time. His duel with Good Magic was taxing on both horses but with the inside horse typically taking the worst of it I have to assume it was tougher on Magic than it was on Justify.
I wonder how he will perform when and if he is pinned with his right eye covered up. There is a chance we will never see that. He's that fast. But that position is really tough to deal with and it takes a helluva horse to overcome that and still have gas in the tank at the 1/8th pole.
Hope that clears up what I was trying to say.

Wow. If it didn't make the program he still could have entered that way but that is a rare miss in the racing office. I have seen it happen before though.
I hope exactly what happened comes out so there are no questions.
Sure hope they didn't do anybody favors. That would stink.