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-   -   TIOGA DOWNS... Pen or the Micro-Chip (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69542)

melman 04-30-2010 01:44 PM

The track will be fast, the weather clear and warm. Let's get this party started.

Tioga
Day 1

R1 9-7-1
R2 7-6-3
R3 3-4-6
R4 1-6-9
R5 2-5-4
R6 8-5-3
R7 3-9-5
R8 7-1-4
R9 4-1-2
R10 6-9-8

The Tioga Team 04-30-2010 02:24 PM

Programs for Opening Weekend...
 
2 Attachment(s)
...just in case.

RaceTrackDaddy 04-30-2010 05:19 PM

Day 2 Picks (bobby z)
 
Just loaded my picks up on my site. No use waiting as I will not change them.

HANA-Tioga Pen v Chip contest
Day 2

Selections:
  1. 2,6,3
  2. 2,8,3
  3. 7,6,3
  4. 6,2,4
  5. 5,6,4
  6. 5,3,8
  7. 2,1,5
  8. 1,4,5
  9. 9,7,3
  10. 3,5,9
  11. 1,3,4
  12. 1,9,5
  13. 4,2,6
Bobby Z
(rtd)

RaceTrackDaddy 04-30-2010 05:35 PM

Utopia
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LottaKash
Bobby, in a previous post, in this thread, you mentioned that you had recently came out of "Utopia", so i will ask you this, when you are not positng and just lurking, what or where is "Utopia" for you ?

best,

LottaKash:
My Utopia is harness racing per se but it also include the greyhounds and flats. I had a trial date of Dec 1st and Dec 2nd that I had to prepare for. Financially and mentally tough process.

My neighbor built a two car garage that was 11 feet onto my property. That was back in May of 2002 I came down with Leukemia in January of the same year. We filed the lawsuit back in 2004 and it finally made it to court late last year.

The bad thing is that we had not a jury but a judge and HE STILL HAS NOT DECIDED the case and this is the beginning of May. Been tough but I am ready to leave the real world problems and concentrate on picking winners online again.

LETS GO PENS!
bobby z
(rtd)

LottaKash 04-30-2010 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RaceTrackDaddy
Been tough but I am ready to leave the real world problems and concentrate on picking winners online again.
bobby z
(rtd)

Alright RTD, thx for the catch-up....Now back to business...You have your work cut out for you...Tioga is a tricky place....I'll bet that you will be up to the task, and maybe you will beat them all....

G.L. to you and the other good guys who will be doing the "Pickin"...

best,

RaceTrackDaddy 04-30-2010 10:44 PM

LottaKash
 
What we need are some opening morning line odds for the contestants and the people who come here to post by voting for their favorites as if it their vote was their money....could keep it going all week prior to Saturday and restart the clock after the last day's card...sounds like a lot of work though..and I do not like work...LOL

mirror Image 05-01-2010 09:53 AM

My support for Tioga will be small win bets.

R1 1
R2 7
R3 6
R4 1
R5 6
R6 8
R7 3
R8 1
R9 7
R10 1


Good Luck to all

LottaKash 05-01-2010 10:13 AM

A "question" for the Tioga-Team....???
 
I have a question for the Tioga Team.....

After getting deeper into the 1st Day's program for the "opener" on Sat 5/1, I just noticed that Tioga is now using the "A-B-C classifying system" for classifying and carding certain races that are not Claimers or NW's of 1/2/3 races.....

So the question is: Who gets to decided where the horse gets to be placed in those ABC conditions.?....

My first encounters in Harness-Racing, back in the mid-60's, were at the tracks of Yonkers, Roosevelt and Monticello raceways.....Back then they used the very same, I suppose, rating system for the horses that are now featured at Tioga....Back then it was up to the "Racing-Secretary" to make the determination of the classifications, and it was "He", that decided what horse would race in what class....Now back then, they didn't have the additional luxury of a NW's category, but they did have claimers, so you would either run your horse in a claimer, or else go where the Race Secretary told you to go which would be A, B or C, with a subset of 1, 2, or 3 in each letter of class....

So, without jumping the gun here, I must say tho, "I never did" like that way of classifying a horse....It gives the "RC" too much power in the "handicapping process", and for me, I don't care much for for that process...I am not trying to be arrogant about this, but I don't care for anyone meddling in a thing that is "working for me", and this classification system, is just that, meddling....It gives the "RC" too much power over where a horse should be placed...It is a judgement call on his part (the RC), it has been been my observation and experience, that when a "third-party" has entered into the picture of "classifying a horse", well that becomes very "subjective" to me......

Not to point any fingers or insinuate anything of a sort about any of this, but way back when, I was a Harness-Groom for a time, and all I can say about that is, I heard things, about this and that and the classifications and about certain trainers....One can use his imagination on that score.....but "teacher's pet" and "scratch my back", come to my mind...

I belive that the ABC way of classifying a horse might make it much simpler, and easier for the novice and inexperienced fan/bettor to better get a handle on what a horse may be perceived as being better/higher by using the ABC guidleines, but for me, it takes some play out of my "Trainer's-Angle" book of tricks, and to succeed in this game for the long haul, we must have some tricks to use to have any chance at all.......ABC classifying, takes away a bunch of those tricks, imo....

Hey I am an old guy, who has had his brains beat out of him over and over throughout my handicapping life.... And so as with the "old-dog and a new trick", I am the same I suppose, change is hard for this old guy, as with ABC racing, I have been there and done that, and I never liked it much....It took me too long to get here, and cost me a "Lottakash" to pay for my education, so I would rather fight than switch....

I will watch and see where all of this goes.....Because of the lower quality of the horses at Tioga, perhaps in the long run, this may be just what the Doctor ordered, I don't know....

Still, "kudos" to Tioga Downs for their brave and inspiring stance on lowering the "takeout", when mostly, other tracks, in and of themselves, are the victims of their own unwaivering mindset, and I believe that they are "lost in a space-time warp" of some sort, at least when it comes to fixing the current sluggish and ailing horse race betting system that now exists..... They seem to be clueless....

So, I am rooting for you Tioga...and despite my feelings on ABC racing, I will not hesitate to make my play, when I think I have a "Loophole" or two going for me at your nice raceway

best,

tamaharbor 05-01-2010 10:49 AM

Tamaharbor Saturday May 1 Seelctions

1. 1,6,7
2. 3,1,5
3. 4,5,2
4. 4,6,3
5. 2,5,7
6, 2,5,8
7. 5,4,2
8. 5,4,6
9. 1,4,5
10. 4,1,2

markgoldie 05-01-2010 11:33 AM

Selections for 5/1
 
First, an unsolicited word on ABC racing: It stinks. The A-B-C class system was used in metro NY racing for years, but for reasons which became obvious way back in the day, it is a system that rewards failure and dishonest racing. For example, if you have a horse that is only moderately competitive in a given class, what possible incentive do you have by racing the animal on it's toes only to gain minor checks and remain in the same spot week after week? Answer: none. Much better to stiff the animal a couple of starts so you can drop down to a lower class where you may win. Additionally, since the horse is showing worse-than-necessary lines, why not bet a little when you hit the right class? This wagering angle helps mitigate against any lost purses you may have suffered during the "stiffing" period. And so, in short order, you have horses going "hot" and "cold" on a regular basis.

Furthermore, the system gives far too much power to the race secretary. For example, when a horse comes into the track from another venue, where does the race secretary put the horse? Were the race secretary an expert handicapper with back data on the results of shippers from different venues, we might get the proper initial classification. But in reality, the RS has other concerns. For ex., maybe he wants to encourage trainers to bring more animals to his track (don't they all in this environment??). So what does he do? He puts shippers in "soft" so as to encourage more shippers. Closely related is the "favor" mentality that arises. Ex., the RS needs a horse to fill an event. So he coaxes a trainer to enter a horse where the animal may not be competitive. In return, you can bet your bottom dollar that same trainer wants a favor in return for the favor he is granting. So the RS drops a couple of marginal animals for him in class as a repayment. You see the environment that is developing. The politics of this nonsense is immense. Then there is the dilemma of when and how the RS decides it's time to drop a horse. Consider this: when a class is over-subscribed with entries, it's almost a given that the RS will drop horses out of it to a less-subscribed class so he can maintain field balance and an equal opportunity to race. But if your horse is racing in an under-subscribed class, the animal will practically have to die on the racetrack to get dropped out. Furthermore, he will be subjected to an inordinate amount of class droppers from the class above him. Great situation to be in!! :bang:

Now that I have rained on the party so to speak, let me say that there are ways to handicap this mish-mosh. (1) Assume that open claimers are being raced honestly. (2) Assume that A-B-C races may not be. Therefore, keep close records on trainers who's horses suddenly "wake up" when dropped. Note the drivers who seem to be "live" in all situations, as well as those not opposed to taking a marginal horses back and never leaving the pylons.

Trackmaster users are cautioned to evaluate the validity of numbers from other tracks. In order of preference (strength), they are:

(1) Meadowlands
(2) Yonkers
(3) Meadows (especially strong in trotters)
(4) Pocono Downs
(5) Vernon (especially good when the horse is a closer)
(6) Monticello
(7) Freehold
(8) Saratoga
(9) Buffalo

Selections for opening card:

R1: 9 and 9/67
R2: 7
R3: 1 and 1/25
R4: 1
R5: 6 and 6/78
R6: 8
R7: 3 and 3/59
R8: 7
R9: 4
R10: 9

Note: I was writing this and did not have the benefit of reading Kash's pertinent remarks on the subject of ABC racing. But he seems to be on the money. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

LottaKash 05-01-2010 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markgoldie
First, an unsolicited word on ABC racing: It stinks. .................................................. ..................Note: I was writing this and did not have the benefit of reading Kash's pertinent remarks on the subject of ABC racing. But he seems to be on the money. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Thanks MG, for elaborating even further on this abc-issue....You always seem to say it so much better than I....Thx...:cool:

best,

melman 05-01-2010 12:30 PM

I'm no fan of the ABC method either. However I would MUCH rather be betting into a trifecta takeout of 21% instead of the 29-35% take on Pennsylvania tracks. Yes there are many of us who can get rebates thru certain ADW's and lower that outlandish takeout. But what about the casual fan or someone new? Also if you live in the "wrong" state (such as NJ) you cannot sign up with cash back ADW's. You have to pay the full outlandish takeout if you choose to bet tri's.

I am sure Nick is a very busy man this weekend maybe later in the week he can address this and we can get his thinking on the ABC matter.

LottaKash 05-01-2010 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melman
I'm no fan of the ABC method either. However I would MUCH rather be betting into a trifecta takeout of 21% instead of the 29-35% take on Pennsylvania tracks. Yes there are many of us who can get rebates thru certain ADW's and lower that outlandish takeout. But what about the casual fan or someone new? Also if you live in the "wrong" state (such as NJ) you cannot sign up with cash back ADW's. You have to pay the full outlandish takeout if you choose to bet tri's.

I am sure Nick is a very busy man this weekend maybe later in the week he can address this and we can get his thinking on the ABC matter.

Hey Mel, money, money, money, is that all you ever talk about ?....:D

best,

melman 05-01-2010 12:58 PM

Johnny===Take a look at my avatar. That should answer your question. Where I live today it's 88 and sunny. Bikini weather. :jump:

LottaKash 05-01-2010 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melman
Johnny===Take a look at my avatar. That should answer your question. Where I live today it's 88 and sunny. Bikini weather. :jump:

Mel, I looked (again and again as I always do), that is "money".....:cool:

best.


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