San Felipe: The Works
 

Game Winner
01/09: 3f - 35.20 - Bullet
01/20: 4f - 48.60
01/30: 5f - 1:03.40
02/08: 5f - 1:00.20
02/13: 5f - 1:01.60
02/19: 7f - 1:25.00
02/25: 6f - 1:13.60 - Gate
03/04: 5f - 1:00.60
8 Works, 40 Furlongs: 5 miles

Improbable
01/09: 3f - 38.00
01/14: 4f - 49.20
01/20: 4f - 48.00
01/26: 5f - 1:02.00
02/01: 5f - 58.40 - Bullet
02/08: 6f - 1:15.00
02/13: 6f - 1:12.80
02/20: 6f - 1:13.20
02/25: 6f - 1:12.00 - Bullet
03/04: 5f - 59.80
10 Works, 50 Furlongs: 6 miles and 2 furlongs

Gunmetal Gray
03/01 6F 1:15.20
02/23 5F 59.80
02/17 4F 48.40
02/02 8.5F Robert B Lewis G3 - 2nd (5 entered)
01/27 6F 1:15.20
01/20 5F 1:02.80
01/05 8F Sham Stakes G3 - 1st (7 entered)
12/29 6F 1:14.60
12/22 6F 1:14.00 - Bullet
12/15 6F 1:15.40
12/08 5F 1:00.80
12/02 5F 1:01.40
11/25 5F 1:01.00
11/18 5F 1:02.20
11/11 4F 50.00
13 Works, 66 Furlongs: 8 miles and 2 furlongs
2 Races, 16.5 Furlongs: 2 miles and .5 furlongs
82.5 furlongs: 10 miles and 2.5 furlongs

GG is dead fit. His (5f) works equal to and more consistent compared to GWs (5f) works; GG is improving. IMO, w/those (2) races under his belt, GG upsets GW. Improbable shows consistency and a (15) length improvement going from (6f) in 1:15 to (6f) in 1:12. Nevertheless, needs an all-out effort to beat GG. I now see why Hollendorfer is running GG and shipped Instagrand to the Gotham.

“Improbable always goes by himself. He’s a good work horse,” Baffert said. “Game Winner, I always work him in company. He’s always been that way where he likes something just to keep him going." The Hall of Famer said he doesn't favor one horse's chances over the other. He expects both to show their usual running styles in the New Year - Improbable as a front-runner and Game Winner as a stalker. The more distance for Game Winner the better, Baffert said, adding that “he’ll never have to run a mile and sixteenth again after this.”

I’m sure Baffert knows which horse has more ability. The comment, “the more distance for Game Winner the better” may be a tell - Game Winner may lose going 8.5f, but not going longer although his longest race to this point has been 8.5f. I believe he is racing these two against each other to determine who goes in the Santa Anita; winner goes.

Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds" and “Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century.” His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation. “From my personal perspective, at this point through the Kentucky Derby prep race season, I give positive marks to Improbable, who has shown flashes against some mid-level type of contenders. Yet, he has trained so well that I do not believe we have seen anything close to his best. I also see Instagrand as a colt with terrific long-range potential and will watch his next outing very carefully for signs he'll enjoy going farther than the Gotham's one-turn mile.”

There's no way Game Winner is tuned up for this. They don't need to win to make the Derby, and he's one or two weeks behind Improbable in works.

I figure Improbable wins here. I'd be more concerned about his Derby prospects if he gets beat versus a decent place for Game Winner whom I believe is the better horse with a quintessential Derby winning pedigree. 8.5F should fit perfectly in Improbable's wheelhouse based on his brilliant speed. Game Winner is stalking grinder type who I expect will do more damage at 9F and beyond. The second place horse in the San Felipe has won more Derby renewals than the winner (6 to 5).

If there is a Giacomo type in the Derby gate this year it might be Gunmetal Gray. He seems like the type that will finish third in the Santa Anita Derby with good closing fractions. Mike Smith, anyone? The speed in this race is not cheap and a meltdown is not expected for him to capitalize.

Cold Trifecta if we have the minimum number of starters:
Improbable-Game Winner-Gunmetal Gray

Blenheim,

Thank you for this information.

I believe Improbable is going to race huge. Of course I am biased because he reminds me so much of Blushing Groom.

GL to all.