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formula_2002

12-23-2021 02:06 PM

is a puzzlement

1 Attachment(s)

Is a puzzlement!
There are times, perhaps in the range of 60% to 70 % of the time, my overlay exacta board does not produce a winning combination.

When those overlay combinations are excluded from my underlay exacta board, the underlay wins perhaps in the range of 60% to 70%. While the one winning singular combination is an underlay it returns a value that exceeds the probability of the entire underlay exacta board

HERE MY TWO EXACTA BOARDS, AN OVERLAY AND UNDERLAY EXACTA FOR TODAYS 3RD RACE AT SA VAAL

THE SHORT DESCRIPTION:
UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD USED 88% OF THE EXACTA PROBABILITIES, REQUIRING A MIN $1 RETURN OF $1.14, THE 5/14 EXACTA RETURNED $1.63, WHILE A SINGULAR BET OF THE 5/14 PRODUCED A 67% UNDERLAY.

WHAT I AM NOTICING, A WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE USING THE SUM OF ITS LINE BETS MAY OUT PERFORM A STRAIGHT WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE

davew

12-23-2021 02:22 PM

I have noticed the same thing with daily doubles

with my odds line, the underlays have a higher hit rate than the overlays
so much so, now I use the underlayings on my win bets of the second race

but I am not in puzzlement, I just figure the bigger bettors have better information than me

formula_2002

12-23-2021 05:58 PM

Code:

Turf Paradise* Race 8 EACH HORSE FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE WIN PROBABILITY pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM 6% 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 2% 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 7% 3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 2% 5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 3% 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 14% 7 ---- ---- $12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12 33% 8 $28 ---- $34 ---- $11 $16 $73 ---- ---- $79 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 241 17% 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 16% 10 ---- ---- $13 ---- ---- ---- $27 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 40 0% 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 0% 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 100% 292 28 0 59 0 11 16 99 0 0 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 292.49 FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN Turf Paradise* Race 8 8 9 10 $292.49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 29% $3.42 INPUT INPUT INPUT CALCULATE CALCULATE NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL 0 0 FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM 1 ---- $1 ---- ---- $1 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 3 $4 $1 ---- ---- $2 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 9 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 5 ---- $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 6 ---- $1 ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 7 $9 $3 ---- ---- $4 $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 22 8 ---- $10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $84 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 94 9 $11 $4 $14 ---- $4 $7 $29 ---- ---- $32 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 100 10 $10 $4 ---- ---- $4 $6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 24 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $0 $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 254 35 24 14 0 15 22 29 0 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 254.48 FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN Turf Paradise* Race 8 Race 8 8 9 10 $254.48 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 71% $1.41

formula_2002

12-23-2021 08:36 PM

1 Attachment(s)

this was a winner

underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22

also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530

this was a winner, exceeding the losses on the previous posted race when nither overlay, underlay or fav won.

underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22

also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530

formula_2002

12-24-2021 09:46 AM

Code:

SA Fairview* Race 8 EACH HORSE FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE track WIN PROBABILITY pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM WIN ODDS pgno 13% 1 ---- ---- ---- $6 ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- $8 ---- ---- ---- ---- 18 6.48 1 18% 2 ---- ---- ---- $9 ---- ---- ---- $13 ---- $15 $15 $12 $16 ---- ---- ---- 80 4.56 2 14% 3 ---- ---- ---- $6 $15 ---- ---- $9 ---- $11 ---- $9 $12 ---- ---- ---- 62 6.29 3 4% 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 3 23.51 4 10% 5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $6 ---- $7 $7 $6 $8 ---- ---- ---- 35 9.33 5 0% 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 6 6% 7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 14.41 7 6% 8 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- 6 15.75 8 2% 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 39.67 9 7% 10 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- $4 $2 ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 13 13.98 10 7% 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 4 13.71 11 5% 12 ---- ---- $8 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12 17.52 12 7% 13 ---- ---- $11 $3 ---- ---- $5 $5 $2 $5 ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 36 12.59 13 0% 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 14 0% 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 15 0% 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 ---- 16 100% 272 0 0 19 33 15 0 5 45 9 38 22 50 36 0 0 0 271.51 FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 % OF WIN POOL TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN PLAYED SA Fairview* Race 8 2 3 1 $271.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 27% $3.68 27% INPUT INPUT INPUT CALCULATE CALCULATE NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL 0.177241176364615 0.0243507021582016 FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LINE SUM 1 1 ---- ---- ---- ---- $15 ---- $10 $9 ---- $10 $10 ---- $11 ---- ---- ---- 66 1 2 $29 ---- $30 ---- $21 ---- $14 ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 100 1 3 $21 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $10 ---- $4 ---- $11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 46 1 4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 1 1 5 ---- ---- ---- $4 ---- ---- $7 ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 14 1 6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 7 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- ---- $4 $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 9 1 8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2 1 9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 1 11 ---- ---- ---- $3 ---- ---- $5 ---- $2 $5 ---- $4 ---- ---- ---- ---- 18 1 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 5 1 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- $0 $0 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 1 267 51 0 30 10 36 0 51 13 18 15 27 4 11 0 0 0 266.54 $1 EX $1 FAV 2ND FAV 3RD FAV winning TRACK PAYOUT TRACK PAYOUT WINING NORMALIZED* $1 WIN RETURN NORMALIZED* % OF EXACT REQUIRED MIN $1 % OF WIN POOL TRACK PGNO PGNO PGNO EXACAT COMBINATION $1 win return $1 exacta return TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL EXACTA RETURN EXACTA $1 RETURN USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE WIN $1 RETURN POOL PLAYED EXACTA RETURN PLAYED SA Fairview* Race 8 Race 8 2 3 1 $266.54 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 27% $3.75 0%

formula_2002

12-24-2021 10:41 AM

1 Attachment(s)

here is a better view of the race's winning underlay exacta board.
results are good, but i did find a clinker in the works.
the % of pools were not previously applied corectly..
the bet sizes on the favorite may be more promissing.

Half Smoke

12-31-2021 09:01 AM

_____________

just my personal opinion or preference - but anyway

I much prefer betting exactas when there is a cold fave going off at around 5/2

payouts should be pretty decent even if the fave is involved

for me - betting an exacta when the fave is 3/5 is out of the question

yes, if he's out the payoff will be nice - but so often he's in 1st or 2nd

and yes, if he comes with a shot it could be halfway decent too

but if he comes over the 2nd or 3rd fave or underneath one of them

forget about it

you're going to make a sour face when you see the payout

.

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