And he has now set a standard for anyone who makes that ridiculous claim in the future to have to surpass before any credibility is given to his empty claims.

Thanks for the reply....The "certain" numbers you use, are those TimeformUS?

Yes. I've stated such multiple times, including the first post in this thread.

I must have been looking the days you missed

All those threads titled "Value Races & Horses" in Selections are mine. I don't know how I could be any more transparent about what I am doing. As you say, you're just not paying attention. You just want to seem clever.

My oversight....continued success, Mike..:ThmbUp:

I must admit, that over the last couple years I personally have become very figure dependent. In fact I work much better with one figure per race. For instance a pace rating of 90 and speed rating of 94 and a class rating of 87 and performance rating of 89, is too much information. I just tweek the Bris figures based off of what I have found works, into one figure per race and handicap after that(including pace ratings, projected development, late pace on 2 turn turf races....). Unfortunately it is all time consuming process.

Even in harness races, I have a system i developed many years ago(I stopped playing harness races for a good 20 year or so), found a few flaws in it, tweeked it, and am very happy with what I have come up with. I am playing more and more tracks, not even watching replays and having a ball. But once again coming up with these figures is very time consuming and tiring because I have to do all these calclation in my head.

Once I have the figures, of course I handicap after that, if i have time to watch a replay I will do so, but that is the exception not the rule. I wouldn't know if a horse last raced on a golden rail or quicksand or if 9 horses went wire to wire that day or it 7 deep closers won that day. But in the end, my figures are paramount and I am very happy with how I have been doing.

Just saying there are a lot of pieces to the puzzle, but Pace is using Timeform, I am using Bris and we are both happy with our results, ignoring a lot of these pieces.

But I see 4 or 5 horses listed

Yes, I list all of my contenders, in order of preference. With an oddsline.

If you were to only bet my top pick when it was an overlay, you've won 10% over the last 39 days. If you bet every contender when it was an overlay, you'd have lost 7% over the last 39 days. Stick with the top choice overlay only.

And for those wondering, I do count as a LOSER a horse who is a slight underlay if I'm not around to actually post what horses were overlays before the race goes off. So if a horse I have listed at 8/1 loses and is 7.50 on the Equibase chart, it counts in the record as a loss, not as a pass. I do NOT count as a WINNER a horse on my line who is 8/1 but wins at 7.50-1 on the chart (unless I've posted it as a play in real time). That counts as a pass. This applies to all odds ranges.

However, any horse that I post in real time right before the race goes off that is a play, counts, whether or not it is an overlay or an underlay on the final tote flash.

Hope this explains everything and answers a few questions you might have.

I don't understand what this means. If you list a contender as a play at 8-1...and the horse loses at 7-1...this still counts as a LOSS on your records? Why?

Going by the Equibase charts, if they list it within a half point below, it counts as a loss. Because of such odds fluctuations late, I want to err on the side of costing me more, rather than benefiting me from such a close call.

This only applies when I don't actually post what I'm playing in real-time...for instance, I always post "On :5:" or "On :1:" when I am actually here and playing live...those always count no matter what the final odds end up being.

What I'm talking about above is if I don't actually post my bet, and I rely on the Equibase charts to figure out my wins and losses for races I am not here to actually post what my final play will be among my posted list of contenders.

You see, I always post my contenders with my line whether I am here for the race or not. If I'm here for the race and post "here's who I ended up on" then it always counts. If I'm not here, I have to go by the charts, and I want to be fair.

How many races and how much time are you capping per day? Haven't looked into TimeformUS yet, but if they save a lot of time, I probably should. The older I get the more time it takes me to do it right.

You're doing great Mike...and the way you are doing it is fantastic--everything is reduced to numbers---I learned that I was not a good handicapper just reading the "form".

Without stealing your thunder....100 races with a profit is no longer the "gold standard".

So....I am playing 100 races this weekend,with just software---don't have a clue (like you) who the trainer, jockey, surface, distance, bias is-----just numbers.

And.....I say I'll show a profit. Everything is posted on my thread--I suspect mr timtam will slink away quietly when I'm done tomorrow.

Sorry to barge in--excellent job, Mike. I've taken quite a bit of ridicule from "experts" for my pace and speed "methods". Hope we can quiet the naysayers--- for a while.

*btw...all my picks are a day in advance

Carry on 👑

He is not handicapping (that is per PA not me BTW). He is using TimeformUS numbers and typing them into an oddsline calc spreadsheet. He has to type two numbers for each horse; the speed figure and the pace figures. Actually, it is three numbers since there are two pace figures, one for early and one for late. I have done this before; usually on Breeder's Cup day. It takes a surprising amount of time. PA would be the king of the world if there were a way to automate the process, although it would take the fun out of it.

I have automated it somewhat...how else can I do all these races? And it's more than three numbers...

I have a program that scrapes the numbers I need off the web page and puts it into an excel file...