the 'Morning Line' is supposed to 'cap the Public, not be a 'Selection'!!
 

David Aragona was on today.


I think David (morning line NYRA) explained it perfectly, and he is one of the guys who gets it right. :ThmbUp:

Who is the best Morning Line maker these days?



Can't stand when I have a false-favorite, and a mid-range price, and then the morning line comes out protecting the Public... :bang::bang::bang:

The morning line.

The only use is a initial comparison to what you think the horses odds should be. Then wait for the race and see what happens.

Some tracks ML I take seriously. Some make me laugh.

If you watch the video, you sort of understand that he has a good clue to what is going on.

Nice to have people like this in the game.

Day in, day out, it’s Mark Patterson.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

I make it a whacker between Mark Patterson and Jon White at Santa Anita. Everybody likes to question the line. Most times when I've disagreed with Jon he's been proven to be right. I got him this past Saturday when I thought IMPROBABLE would be the favorite over HIGHER POWER. But it's a rare victory. I think my record with Jon is about 3-12.

John DaSilva @ Parx :pound:

I'm obviously biased but I think David has become the best at a big track. He puts a lot of time into it. I qualified it because I rarely pay attention to morning lines at smaller tracks since most are terrible.

Nothing wrong with this bias. He's excellent.

He lays over the field. Eric Donovan was extraordinarily good before him

Going to give a shout out to Steve Anderson at Fonner. For the horses he has to work with, he does a very good job.

This may not even be the fault of the linemakers. The less money in the pool, the more variance in the odds (as anyone who has gone to a small track and placed a big win bet can sadly confirm). Which means even a good ML maker is going to be less accurate at a smaller track.

I think Brad Thomas makes a good M/L at MTH. I agree about Eric Donavan; back when he did the M/L in NY I thought he was top notch.

Jon White would be a better ML setter if he actually used odds percentages
in a set formula when compiling his listings. Far too often, the percentages
in the races he works on total somewhere around 150%. That is far too
high, and makes horses look like overlays by his calculations when, in fact,
he has quoted a line that is far too short on them in the first place.
It's been a pet peeve of mine for some time.

When your takeout on a win pool is in the region of 20%,
your odds percentages should never go over 130%, imo.

His ability to rate horses by their odds is not in question.
He just needs to price them a bit better.

For the most part it is just bad lines. I see it here at Remington all the time. I'm sure some of that comes into play but mostly that isn't the case.

Look at Fonner. I put a $50.00 bet there, when it is normal, I understand that it will move the odds. Especially if I place it early. Makes for some wary playing. In other words, late playing. Know the track you are betting. Most here do.