Rebel Stakes
 

Contrast this with the Risen Star where a lot of horses had potential/good chance to win with this race. It came up very weak overall.

:1: Carbone 15-1 ML Beaten favorite in the Southwest, ran up the track. Why? Was it the mud, didn't get the lead or simply isn't that good. Tyler opts for Asmussen's other horse, Dimatic, which isn't a good sign. Rail draw helps ensure the lead? Can get part of the super with an uncontested lead!

:2: Northern Flame 5-1 ML Both wins were on the front end and he isn't as fast as Carbone. Loses lasix off of last race, has no power in the lane, would be shocked if he went off at 5-1 or lower. Held on against Mena and lost to Woodcourt, two horses that won't be in the Derby. Needs to run back to the Breeders Futurity, if not, would need luck to hit the exotics.

:3: Common Defense 30-1 ML Terrible race in the Southwest, slow speed figures. PASS

:4: Tejon Pass 30-1 ML Collapsed against Woodcourt and Next Level while near the lead in a slow 3/4 split, he regressed going two turns. Only win was on the front and he most likely won't get it today. Hard to like!

:5: Magic Grant 50-1 ML Last all the way around the track in the Southwest. Shouldn't be in this race. PASS

:6: Dimatic 8-1 ML Tyler winds up here out of the three Asmussen horses. How much did the slop aid his maiden win in last. No lasix and while his Brisnet figures are improving, he still isn't very fast. Chance to be in the super if another improvement.

:7: Timberlake 6-5 ML Waited almost four months for his 3 yr old debut. Towers above these both in class and speed figures and is working strong for his return. I wouldn't put a nickel on him at 4-5, which is what he is going off at. Putting him on top in the tri and super is different if you like him. Wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't run to expectations, like Fierceness didn't.

:8: Next Level 30-1 ML Brisnet figures very poor, no lasix, maiden win was on the front. PASS

:9: Lagynos 20-1 ML Here is your longshot play. Went to the front in fast fractions and faded. A stalking trip is coming and I see a big race. Only lost to Just Steel by two lengths. In the exotics seems like a safe bet.

:10: Mena 20-1 ML You can bundle this one with the :2::4::8::12:. All five of them are not impressive to me.

:11: Just Steel 7-2 ML Obvious second choice making his 10th career start, The one problem is both of his top speed figures were followed up with a regression. Will he put two fast races back to back. Seems like the one to key to hit the board.

:12: Woodcourt 20-1 ML Appears like he either wins or is nowhere. He is in that group of five that is destined for allowance races at best. When your best Brisnet figure is 83 in nine races that isn't saying much.

:13: Time for Truth 15-1 ML Here is the one that many are going to like but I don't. Six furlong front running sprinter stretching out for the first time and in a horrible post plus I don't see him getting the lead over Carbone. Going into a G2 off of two races and stepping up in class usually means running up the track.

SIDE NOTE

For those who are on a decades long streak of cashing at least one ticket on the day and who are blanking late Saturday I am here to save you.:D Race 12 at Oaklawn bet the :7: Crushed It. He is in a maiden race who has speed numbers that are on par or better than half the field in the Rebel. Now, he is only going to pay $3 to win, but this isn't about making a fortune, it is about keeping the streak alive. The exacta should be cold with the :2: and the :12: should be the 3rd horse for either the tri or super.

Timberlake:7:, Just Steel:11:, Time for Truth:13:

I think the #13 is a scratch.

Trying to make a case for #2 but this race looks chalky to me

Thanks Phantom, just saw the Scratch of the :13:,

Choices now: Timberlake:7:, Just Steel:11:, Northern Flame:2:

:7: looks like a walk unless someone can dawdle the pace, or get brave early and keep going.

:2: makes the most sense to send and trip out. Won't get the worthwhile price on that happening.

Not a fun wagering race, so I may throw a couple nickels across on the :5:. I think he has every right to keep moving forward.

More I look, this :10: has a real shot in here.

Gonna spread and try to get the :2: on the board

Tri: :7::11:w:2:w:1::3::6::7::9::11:
Tri: :7::11:w:3::6::7::11:w:2:
Win: :2:

That works. :ThmbUp:

Had to dig a little, but the :7::3::2: tri paid around $107.00 for 50 cents

Nice score Phantom! :jump: As you could probably tell I didn't like the race and since you were the only one who put up a tri or super wager I was rooting for you to win!

We have to assume Timberlake will come back in the Arkansas Derby and he will meet much better competition. Why? Because you can bet your life Baffert is sending one or two there. They all can't run in the Santa Anita Derby.

Thanks - the 3 got a great trip