Horse bettors.....Betting Strategy
 

Betting strategy...

What is the best wagering strategy when it comes to horse racing? Would like to hear how to optimize profits. Some say never bet place or show, some say only bet verticals, some say exactas. In todays horse racing world what is the best approach to betting horses.

Optimally bet all overlays.

Always bet on the winner.

Provided you show a long term profit then it's got to be some form of Kelly.

I am trying to refine my betting strategy being a pick 4, pick 5, rainbow 6 player. Yesterday got up to SPA I got skunked first 5 races, ripped up P4/P5 tix, and then switched to Progressive Place/Show betting on value plays 15-1 to 7-1 shots. Rattled off 4 straight ended up ahead a couple hundred. Was doing either $10/$30 or $20/$30 PS. Also had one $20 WP that helped.

Now I am thinking I should pick my horses in P4/P5, target the one I left off for budgetary reasons each leg, and put enough to Place and/or Show on that horse to cover the P4/P5, and hopefully more. Then regroup and try again on the late P4.

Thoughts?

Nothing makes you feel as stupid when you are ripping up exotics tickets and your horse wins at 5-1 or better. You can split hairs on lower odds and not get hurt but when your win % is static and the average mutuel is good. There is nothing grounding you like that. This is my experience over the years. I bet 2/3rds of what I play to win. The other third I swing for the fences. Sometimes I think I am great. Other days I think I am a moron! It happens. Bet your skill but swing for the fences anywhere you think you got it.

I let the race determine my betting strategy.

If I like one horse at 2-1or my top two horses are 7-2 or less I don't bet to win, but may use in pick 3's and 4's.

If the horse I like is 5-2 or greater I bet to win and double to place.

If I like 2 horses I will bet equal to win on each or 60% on top choice and 40% on second choice. I may or may not play an exacta with them.

If I like 3 to win up to about half the field, I may use in multi race wagers. If more than half the field I would use all if I play multi race wagers.

If the field is 8 or more and I have a handle on the race I may play tris or supers.

Let your handicapping, field size, odds, and your bank roll determine your bets.

My betting strategy on some cards is to pass all the races.

I handicap the night before. It's a habit I developed in the olden days when the only way to get a form was to stand in line at 8pm & wait for the DRF guy to bring the papers. I still think my handicapping is better when I can do it at whatever the proper pace is & not grappling for some obscure trainer stat 15 min to post.
After the day's scratches I take a piece of notebook paprt & organize it as follows. I leave about 2 inches blank & then using a ruler make 5 columns. They are A horses that I think have a 2-1 or less chance of winning.
B those I think have a 5-2 to 7-2 chance
C those I think have a 4-1 to 10 chance
D rare horse that I think has something I find interesting. If a D horse is going off at huge odds, I'll put a few buck on it or if it's the last leg of a pic 3/4/5/6 series, & I'm alive, I want to cover that horse.
SH In this column I list the bridesmaid types or sucker horses that probably won't win, but have a strong chance of running 2nd. This is my goto column for exactas.
In the 2 inch section I left blank, I list the betting options for this race. At any course of the day, I can glance at the paper & see what my options are. If I'm playing the DD & one of the combinations is say $12, I ignore it as a DD, but use it with my other picks in the following race if there is a Pic3. If I think a horse is a mortal lock, I circle that number in red. If a horse is the morning line favorite or strong co favorite, I put a tiny asterisks next to it's number to remind me to bet a little more on this horse if I'm using it in a blind pool. I don't wan to win the bet & lose money.
The paper serves as a map an helps keep me grounded.
Now if I predicated the map on a strong early speed bias, & the 1st two winners come from dead last, screw it. The model has changed for some reason & I'm not going to throw a lot of money at the tote board in an attempt to get even or get it right. I'll handicap tomorrow or read a book or go to a movie. :)

I bet 3 horse exactas at Elllis Park on Saturday. I lost $22.

Then I winged it on Sunday and won $57.

I don't have a system as a recreational player, but I enjoy the track about 25 times a year.

It's more important to be a good bettor than a good handicapper.

I don't think much of the handicapping information is used properly. It is assumed but I think there are terrible handicappers out there who have years in the game. Even since my last post in this thread I have become a better player on the betting side. Always been a good handicapper!

Cant completely agree, lets just say to be really good you need to be good at both, maybe even a shade towards the ticket making aspect.

Agree, but doesn't this approach require the use of "Bots" both on the handicapping side and on the last seconds wagering end...how else could the wagers be optimized if the final odds are not yet known...

PS...glad to hear from you...please post more:cool:

my first advice would be to stay away from all forms of exotic wager's that have higher takeout than w-p-s. i would do my w-p-s betting in Canadien tracks and NYRA because they pay to the dime while the other's get you for crazy breakage.

try to watch the races on the television screen and get a feel for the track to see if there is any bias to it. stay away with horses that look like they are going to be up against the bias.

if you can't break the race down to 4 or less contenders, don't play it. if you do have the race figured to those 4 or less try betting only the one that is the highest priced.

if you are going to bet big money, make sure you bet it early and not late. if you are betting the last flash you can only hurt your price. to go one step further i would say stay away from betting big money period. try to hold your bets down to $50 or less per pool. bet even smaller in place and show pools. but NYRA gives you a good shake because they have bigger win pools and you can put some type of a dent into them without getting hurt to badly on the price if you think you have an edge to your bet.

capping vs. wagering?

1st your capping and race selection should be enough to 'hold it's own'.

$50 bankroll , $2 win bets = you should be able to hold your own for a while.
With the ticket simplified, Race selection quickly rears it's head in this experiment. If you play every race you see, you may reach the finish line in a day. If you really try, and only play races where your best angle has a nice edge, you may last a month. Who knows you may grow your bank and not have to worry about tickets as you are now a full-time win bettor.

with tickets the following comes to mind:
betsize vs hit% vs bankrollsize = It's easy to lose track of this relationship in an exotic bet.

Different things have different importance = Knowing what kind of opinions to single or key. Knowing when to use ALL/Most vs being selective. Stuff like that.