Why is Bolt d'Oro the measuring stick? I don't get it
 

Who has Bolt d'Oro ever beat? He beat Zatter who hasn't run this year. Run Away who is alright, but lost to Greyvitos who went to Keeneland and got buzzed by MyBoyJack. He beat Solomini who later returned the favor in the Breeders Cup. Both Cali horses got buzzed by east coaster Good Magic.

Bolt d'Oro then loses to McKinzie, who lost to Solomini. Solomini ships to Oaklawn and gets smashed by Magnum Moon twice.

Kanthanka who comes third to Bolt and McKinzie goes to the blue grass and comes 6th to Good Magic.


Brings me to Justify. He beat camby and paddock pick both still maidens. Then in his 2nd start in the mud he beat Shivermetimbers who is not much. So his claim to fame is beating Bold d'Oro , but my question is why is that such a big deal?

Who said that? I've heard nothing of the sort.

Who has said that ????????????

Are we reading the same forum !!!

The original poster was 110% correct. Who has Justify beat ? What has he done on the track ? He has not only faced the least amount of horses in his career but he has also faced the least quality of horses in his career of ANY horse in the derby field. Justify is simply just a product of Baffert being a master at the PR game and being able to brainwash everyone into thinking he is the next American Pharoah.

The ONLY horse of remotely any quality he has beat was Bolt but even that is not worth much. Like the OP pointed out what has Bolt ever really done ? Not to mention Bolt doesn’t want over a mile and the connections raced Bolt like a horse in the SA derby that already had the points . They never challenged Justify. They just laid down and handed him the win.

in the case of the "who did he beat" camp there is a long line of great horses who have accomplished a hell of a lot more who suffer from the "who did he beat" disease. Its a tough one to cure.

But your point is valid, many of these horses who are going to take a lot of money have not beat anyone yet, and provides ample reason enough to bet against them if you are subscribing to the "who did he beat" form of handicapping.

I don't know about "measuring stick" but Bolt is the horse you're supposed to bet here... the exact same figures with a better narrative and he'd be vying for favoritism.... as it stands, his form is dressed down enough to throw some people off his scent

Bolt also qualifies on some handicap factors. Maybe, he does not win the Derby, but you have to give him the chance he will finish in the exotics. After all, we are all after the bing money. Not just a $2 win ticket.

Yes all the horses have question marks but he has more than most of the others. He has raced against (2) five horse fields and (1) 7 horse field in races that were ran like they were scripted and he had to face no in race adversity against very sub par competition. That all changes in the derby and he is not just going to be one of several horses that are going to be taking money. He is going to be the heavy favorite and he has done absolutely nothing on the track to deserve to be the favorite. If you are going to be the heavy favorite than there should not be more question marks about you than multiple other top horses. I am sticking to the opinion he is nothing more than the beneficiary of a very good PR campaign by Baffert.

Watch the SA Derby post race commentary by three very well respected horse analysts ( Jerry Bailey, Laffit Pincay lll, Randy Moss ) unanimously they were underwhelmed by the performance of Justify and thought it was the least impressive race of his career and Jerry Bailey ( also a hall of fame jockey ) even wondered out loud if Baffert would even bother running Justify in the derby. Than the hype train took over and he’s not only running but also the heavy pre-race favorite.

Going to be a lot of tears and torn up tickets from people using Justify on top. I might also be tearing up tickets but it won’t be because I was some sheep that followed the Baffert/Media false narrative. At least if I lose it will be on my terms and because of my own handicapping.

I can’t believe anyone actually “handicapped” the race and landed on Justify because there is nothing on paper that suggests he should be the favorite. ( Que the grossly inflated speed numbers from the SA Derby from all the Justify brainwashed followers. ) The one and only reason that anybody is betting Justify is because Baffert and the media talked them into it.

Baffert the new P.T. Barnum 😀

This derby does prove one thing ... There is a sucker born every minute 😉

I bet if you did a poll ... 99% of Justify supporters consider CNN a reliable news source lol

An example of "who did they beat" from American Pharoah?

I'll just pick the next best horse from each of his wins.

Arkansas Derby: Madefromlucky
Rebel Stakes: Madefromlucky

That is it as a 3yo.

Frontrunner: Texas Red
Del Mar Futurity: Calculator

Texas Red won a pretty ho hum edition of the Juvenile and beat Frosted in a four horse Jim Dandy later on. That is about it for any quality horses American Pharoah beat prior to the Derby. And in the 3yo races, LOL. I was there for both of them. He could have spotted the fields about 15 lengths they were so weak.

From October 1:

"Bolt d'Oro ran 1 1/16 miles on a fast Santa Anita dirt track in 1:43.54 winning the FrontRunner Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita by 7 3/4 lengths. It was a fast time - really fast. The FrontRunner, for 2-year-olds, was race 8. Paradise Woods, the Grade 1-winning 3-year-old filly, had won race 5, the Zenyatta Stakes, by 5 1/4 lengths, going the same 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.34."

"If we were to take Bolt d’Oro’s time at face value, he would equal the fastest Beyer Speed Figure by a 2-year-old in the last 25 years," Beyer wrote in an email Sunday.

For validation, Paradise Woods--who registered a 105 BSF in the Zenyatta-- earlier in the year won the Santa Anita Oaks by 11 lengths over subsequent Eclipse champion Abel Tasman over the same track and distance to earn a 107 BSF.

Now if we play your earlier game where we ignore important factors like time, trip, layoffs, injuries, post position, disqualifications, etc., Bolt D'Oro "beat" the winners of the 2017 runnings of:

Santa Anita Oaks G1
Zenyatta Stakes G1
Kentucky Oaks G1
Acorn G1
CCA Oaks G1
Apple Blossom G1
Vanity Mile G1
Clement Hirsch G1
Spinster G1
Alabama G1
Beldame Invitational G1

...and he did it when he was a 2yo with just 2 starts under his belt, never mind whatever other fast 2yos one can dig up from the past 25 years (Uncle Mo, American Pharoah, Shared Belief, Gilded Time, etc.)

Good argument :ThmbUp:


I want to add that these were quality races that were not definitive in outcome (other than Magnum Moon trouncing Solomini!! :D)

Los Al Fut - McKinzie was clearly on his way to winning, before Instilled Regard fouled him. Solomini was just an opportunist who lumped up late.

Breeders Cup Juvenile - Tough to guess who ran better between Bolt and Good Magic. Dream Trip vs. Nightmare trip.

San Felipe - Bolt had to be settled patiently in back of McKinzie's group right into the first turn. McKinzie was on his way to carrying that advantage into the far-turn, when Castellano moved to foul Bolt on the turn with that big move.
Tough race to read. Either way, McKinzie would be in the contending conversation for the Derby.

Using "who did he beat" on developing three year olds is not a very smart to handicap them.

I guess you picked Angle Light to win the 1973 Derby?

The 2015 Kentucky Derby was to that point American Pharoah's least impressive performance outside his debut and yet Baffert still thought enough of him to run him in the Preakness...

A reliable way to measure a 3 yr old is by who he has beat, and the number of horses he beat? As two and three yr old's, IMO, you really can't do that. These horse's are growing and improving daily. They are also consistently in-consistent. For Derby horse's I would use, say a 105 Bris speed figure, or a 118 Timeform figure.

:headbanger:Maybe if you are not going to apply any analytical skills at all and simply just look at the race charts for margin of victory than the 2015 derby win may have been the “ least impressive “ but once you apply even basic handicapping skills to the race it’s easy to see once you factor in that AP broke from post 18 and raced wide every step of the way against two quality horses like Dortmund and Firing Line who had ideal post positions ( 8 and 10 ) and also got fairly easy fractions upfront than the fact AP was able to stalk those two and win at all even if it was “only” by a few lengths was hardly his least impressive victory.

Ah, now the thread has come full circle.

You vehemently defended the OP who pretty much pulled the same stunt with Bolt D'Oro's form that I just did on American Pharoah's Derby and now all of a sudden its an issue that no "analysis" is applied to superficial form reading?

A lot of bias being thrown around, but not much credibility.