TimeformUS Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win
 

Cartwheelin Lulu who had the top pace figure and was tied for the top TFUS speed figure, won the Gimma Stakes at Belmont Wed. at a nice 7-1. Great figure making CG. She did not have the top figure on Beyer or Thoro-Graph.
She was ignored by class handicappers as she was coming off a Maiden Race win at lowly Finger Lakes and was facing fillies who had won or placed in Saratoga Stakes no less.
Of course it helped that she showed the expected improvement on her 2nd lifetime start and had just had a bullet work in 46 and change for a half mile.

Also, of course, I got home too late to bet this filly with all my favorite angles. :bang:

Thanks Bob! (Assuming I am CG) :)

She was fourth best and won because of a confluence of horrendous rides by other jockeys, as well as a bias that ultimately worked in her favor. If horses that are fourth best at 7:1 are your bag, she was a great bet.

I'm a fan of the TimeformUS product but wouldn't use her as a poster child for its value.

That is pretty common at NYRA for the supposed best riders in the world. :)

I would have to go re-watch the race, but how can you say she was 4th best!? Didn't she essentially set the pace and battle horses in the stretch to hold on for the win? I'd say that was making her own luck track bias or not.

Are you sure we're talking about the same horse? She was tied for the highest speed figure despite a wide trip and a high pace figure to offset the apparent rise in class. This was her 2nd lifetime race so there was a good chance she could run faster. I forgot to mention she had a trainer with an excellent win % of 29% with shippers and a bullet work (her best ever) that indicated that this was one of those races that was a go for this guy. She also had the early speed to clear the field and get to the rail, which she did. Only then did I look at the odds that at 7-1 were more than acceptable.

The whole process begins with the figures and then to look for signs that they will either be repeated, drop or rise. In this case, this was the whole enchilada of the horse with the best figures to begin with and several indications that they were going to get even better this day at a very generous price to boot.

To lend some context to this post, the race is going to get a horrible figure.

I agree with all of this. But I also agree with Andy. He is saying the filly was fourth best after the race and seeing the trips.

Sometimes we make the right bet, the horses don't cooperate, but we win anyway. Happens plenty where we make the right bet and are on the other end, losing with the best horses. Such is horse racing. If you make the right bet often enough it should all work out in the end.

The title to the thread, "Timeform Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win " is misleading to me.....At odds of 7-1, this is far from being in the category of a "longshot", as these odds represent just a mid-priced horse, IMO...

She was the 2nd longest price on the board.

That does not change anything I stated.....The horse still paid mid-price.

I'll also add the rarely do I bet a horse I think is best as the odds don't really cooperate. A lot of bets I make are on horses I think are better value than the given odds and hope a a thing or two go my way.

Also, the horse didn't have the best speed figure. Two others were better, including the longest shot in the field. She clearly had the top early rating which is a big factor in 2yo races and on what most think was a biased track.

Are we really going to argue over what somebody considers a longshot? There isn't a correct answer here so lets not dwell on this.

OK.....The horse at 7-1 was not a good bet, regardless of the result, IMO...

I thought That Andy meant she was the 4th best before the race was run making her a poor bet, to which I disagree for the reasons I stated. Maybe he can clarify.

Trakus does indicate that some horses had had wide trips. Hope you post the figures when you do them to see how ground loss affected the outcome. I'm also going to check the replay for trips.

I think 7-1 is a longshot, but then I also think that a horse at 6-5 can have value. :D
IMO the horse was a good bet at even shorter than 7-1. Differences of opinion make horse racing.

It's all good, Bob....;)

At first glance these results seem puzzling but I think see factors such as trip, ground loss, race shape and uneven pace distribution can explain these apparent contradictions. I think i have a handle on most of them but some of the details of this unusually run race will take more time than I have at the moment but it shouldn't take too long and I will post when I have them.

Looks like a race I have seen at NYRA a million times already - 1 rider sticks his horse out in front and the rest of the riders stick their thumbs up their.........reigns. :rolleyes:

This is exactly what I was going to write, maybe with a little different wording. :)

I think that's exactly what Andy meant...and I agree with him. The top pace-figure, and a tie for the top speed figure in a maiden race at Finger Lakes, hardly qualifies a horse for distinction when placed against horses who had competed successfully in Saratoga stakes races. Whether or not this horse was a good wager at that price is a matter of opinion...but, IMO...she was the fourth-best horse going into that race.

The best horse in the race, I assume was the 6 with a 97 last out figure.

The second best horses, with 93 is the 5.

The third and fourth best horses, with 92's are the 7 (winner) and the 4.

So look at who is the trainer for the 7,5,and 6.
J Englehart, three horses, uncoupled, and the longest shot sets a slow pace and crawls home
at 7-1.

Go figure.:rolleyes:

I'd bet a large sum that Andy meant she was fourth best in the actual race, not before it. Hopefully he'll let us know.

All Finger Lakes horses and races are not equal. The trainer and rider were enough to know this. We are talking state bred racing here so I'm not sure the difference was near as great as you are making it out to be.

Curious how often people actually bet the horse they think is 'best' in a particular race before it is run. In my case I'd venture is definitely a minority of the time.

"If horses that are fourth best at 7-1 are your bag, she was a great bet"...Andy wrote. Since we assess a horse's betting value BEFORE the race is run...I have to think that he was questioning this horse's PRE-RACE wagering value.

Lunch bet next time I'm in Vegas. :)

You are on. :ThmbUp:

And we're talking Gordon Ramsey gourmet burger lunch or the like, not some cheap buffet from Vegas Vacation! :lol::lol::lol:

DAMMIT...I forgot that you are on that freakin all-steak diet! :bang:

You may have a point. I must have read the figures on the other horses wrong since I was in a hurry. Either that or my vision is going with age. :(
Maybe I saw something in the other horses with better figures so I eliminated
them.
To think I could have cashed at 7-1 due to mistake. No such luck. I didn't have time to get the bet in in time. Maybe it was karma preventing me from profiting from a mistake.
Actually, in analyzing the race I've discovered something useful in evaluating performances. Even with the correct figures 5 out of the 7 ran unexpectedly poor races and they all had something in common. Will post that analysis shortly.

I have confirmation from the source that I am correct. Two half pound burgers will be fine. I'm not really a steak fan.

A small price to pay in order to get to meet you in person. :ThmbUp:

And...who knows? I might be able to get even with you on the tennis court. :jump:

I heard CJ likes to bowl. as well...:cool:

Naw...that's a no-win situation for him. In bowling...I'm a NATURAL! :)

I guess it's on me that people seem to frequently miss my point. In my opinion that horse ran worse than all of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th finishers, and only a particularly inept ride on the #4 horse, sorry I've forgotten his name, allowed the winner to win...or even possibly hit the tri.

If I wasn't busy, and laboring to type on an iPad, I would go into more detail ( assuming people care ).

Sorry you lost the bet but if it's any consolation, based on what Andy said the most likely interpretation was that the horse was the 4th best before the race.

As far as the alleged class factor. I agree with cj. When a horses' speed and pace figures, along with other strong pluses, indicate it belongs, one should not overestimate usual class distinctions. The mistake I made in this race were due to my missing other horses' better figures - nothing to do with class.

How high did Cartwheelin Lulu rate PRE-RACE...in your opinion?

Whenever I hear someone state that something horserace-related has "nothing to do with class"...I always find myself on the opposite side of the argument. And this is after a lifetime of using speed and pace figures.

Fringe player at best. I would never use her in my play, for whatever that is worth, and highly doubt she would hit the board if they ran the race again, especially on a fair/even track.

She would have been much longer odds on a fair track, but by that point I think most people realized speed was king.