highnote |
08-14-2018 01:10 PM |
Republican Presidential Primary 2020
Will anyone from the Republican Party challenge Trump in the 2020 primary?
When incumbents face a serious competitor in the primary they do not do well in the general election.
Will Kasich pose a serious challenge to Trump in the 2020 republican primary?
Johnson was challenged by RFK. Johnson did not seek reelection.
Nixon had two serious challengers in the 1972 primary and resigned after winning the general election.
Ford became president when Nixon resigned. Regan ran against Ford in the 1976 primary. Ford won the primary but lost to Carter in the general election.
Ted Kennedy challenged Carter in the 1980 primary. Carter won, but lost the general election to Regan.
Regan ran unopposed in the 84 primary voting after Stasson dropped out during the primary campaign.
Pat Buchannon challenged Bush Sr in the 1992 republican primary. Bush then lost to Clinton.
Clinton won the 1996 democratic primary uncontested as LaRouche and Griffin dropped out during the campaign.
Bush Jr had only minor competition in the 2004 republican primary and won easily.
Obama had on minor competition in the 2012 primary and won easily.
Starting with Johnson encumbent presidents fared badly 5 times out of 5 when seriously challenged in the primary.
If Kasich can mount a serious challenge in the republican primary this could spell trouble for Trump in the general election. Trump is not as popular as Bush Jr, Regan, Clinton, and Obama. Trump's best chance for reelection might be to start a war.
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