Tote Board Factors
 

I'm just curious about what people consider to be the biggest factor that influences the tote board's final odds in Harness Racing. I realize it depends on the size of the pool (Lebanon 'barn money effect' is different than BigM barn money) so let's use tracks with win pools in the range of $5000 to $15000.



1. Barn (smart) money or other inside information
2. Handicapping solely from program information
3. Morning Line
4. Early tote action and/or tote movement trends
5. 1 or more whales ($100+ bettors smart or dumb)
6. Expert picks / tip sheets / TV analysts / internet picks

I'll post this as a poll, but I'm more interested on how the factors should be ranked, which might be different than any poll results. Any comments?

Good question Ray but you left one out,a trainer
winning at 35% :D .

When ocean downs starts running there's a guy that sits in the simulcast area behind me and he bets $50 exactas and puts $200 W on these horses late he always tells me as the race starts. cant ever see what he sees in these horses.

then he walks up stairs and hits jackpots on the slots

Imo it depends on the daily handle average. Example: Meadowlands harness meet at its peak can see a chalk actually rise in odds, as other action against comes in, whereas a small track with limited handle can take an early $50 wager and place a horse at 1-9, then the bandwagon effect begins. I always watch the late money, and get down at last minute if betting trackside, in order to watch trends in handle on the particular race. The size of the pool is the key imo.

I think the trend nowadays is to put your bets in very slowly if its the stable.I have seen what somelese was talking about very often the bandwagon effect.Some whales have computer programs that bet for them at the lastr possible second so this cannot happen.My favorite t bred tote angle is .....a precipitious at the first click after betting opens..a steady rise in the odds till just before post when another drop occurs....

I voted for whales as the prime movers in the odds....some whales have computer programs that can tell them what the optimum bet size is for the size of the pool he wants to bet into.

I'd vote current speed figure coupled with finish last race.

Late for the Wedding, Early for the Funeral.
 

:ThmbUp: Agreed. The last race high speed figure (Bris or Beyer)influences a lot of the tote action.
As one handicapper who's name escapes me once wrote:
"The problem with betting like that is these people are often late for the wedding and early for the funeral."

At smaller tracks I'd say inside information. A 10/1 ML opens at 5/2 and drifts up to 4/1 and goes off 3/1. If never bet early that horse goes off 12/1.

At the Meadowlands I'd love not to see 3 things and see how the odds would be drastically changed.

1. No Brower's analysis on the track program.
2. No Pandy's Picks on USTA web site.
3. No morning Line

For years I have played outside horses at the Big M knowing I would get inflated prices as Brower mentions their reduced chance of winning from the 9 and 10 hole.
That doesn't bother me as these horses Avg Mutual makes up for the low win % and the name of game is ROI not how many tickets you cash.