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-   -   Derby Future Wager - Pool #1 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=167872)

Michael 11-27-2021 08:17 PM

Derby Future Wager - Pool #1
 
I can't be the only one that loves to handicap these pools as we move towards the derby.
There's no chance I bet into this pool, but I still enjoy running the hypothetical - what if - situations.
If anyone wants to chime in on Sire picks I'd be interested in hearing opinions.

My pool #1 pick would be Giant Game who's currently sitting at 44/1
All other 3 year old males is currently 3/5

:popcorn: let the games begin

pps
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager

Bennie 11-28-2021 05:34 PM

I only play the sires pool this early. I look at sires that have certain breeding and also look for value. While its not always like this but a friend of mine wanted to play Jack Christopher in the pool but I pointed out to him that Jack is sitting at 9-1 and the sire Munnings is sitting at 17-1. I look for these types of differences in odds that my include a horse I like going forward. I don't like Jack Christopher myself but if I did my money would be on the sire at twice the odds with the added benefit of having any other horse by that sire that might show up down the road. I spent $6 and boxed the 4,5 and 24 in the sire pool exacta. That is my play for pool #1.

rastajenk 11-29-2021 08:40 AM

The 'all other 3yo fillies' is a new thing this year, isn't it?

BarchCapper 11-29-2021 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bennie (Post 2769250)
I only play the sires pool this early. I look at sires that have certain breeding and also look for value. While its not always like this but a friend of mine wanted to play Jack Christopher in the pool but I pointed out to him that Jack is sitting at 9-1 and the sire Munnings is sitting at 17-1. I look for these types of differences in odds that my include a horse I like going forward. .

Looks like the "Why didn't you bet the sire pool?" horses from Pool 1 are:

Command Performance: 31-1
Union Rags: 29-1

Classic Cause: 44-1
Giant Game: 37-1
Giant's Causeway: 24-1 (of course you may LIKE only one)

Jack Christopher (as noted): 10-1
Munnings: 18-1

Smile Happy: 8-1
Runhappy: 7-1

Michael 11-29-2021 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rastajenk (Post 2769341)
The 'all other 3yo fillies' is a new thing this year, isn't it?

I don't recall ever seeing all 3yo fillies in any previous years and I always cap these wagers.

Looks like 122K was put on All 3 year old C&Gs and closed at 3/5. I think this just screams free money if you want to lock in 3/5 on a race that might not even be run in 2022. Obv, modern times for modern games.

Bennie 12-01-2021 06:06 PM

The fillies were offered last year also. Closed at 56-1. I did use Giants Causeway in my exacta.

Michael 01-23-2022 03:44 PM

Free PP's for pool #2
http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...y22Future2.pdf

I didn't bet into pool one and I'm not betting into pool two. That said, after the lecomte I would think my original pick of Giant Game should be higher than 37/1 (pool 1 closing odds). Currently sitting around 27 to 1 in pool two.

Jack Christopher likely the only horse other horse i would want to see run.
Good chance the derby winner hasn't been seen yet. :coffee:

supersulky 01-26-2022 08:26 PM

Smile Happy looks good to me. I have him in the futures.

Michael 02-02-2022 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by supersulky (Post 2782671)
Smile Happy looks good to me. I have him in the futures.

Haskins has Smile Happy on the top of his list. Giant Game #4

1—Smile Happy (Ken McPeek, Runhappy – Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)

It’s still early, but if you go by what their trainers say, there is a good chance the No. 1 and 2 ranked horses will square off in the Risen Star Stakes on February 19, along with the No. 6 ranked horse. It’s apparent that points have now become the major focus when planning a horse’s schedule, and if you wait two weeks you can run for 50 points at Fair Grounds instead of running for 10 points at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull Stakes. So many trainers now are content to run their horse only two times before the Derby and you might as well go for the bigger points. Even the No. 3 horse looks like he’ll wait for the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby with the alternative being to debut a week earlier in the Fountain of Fountain of Youth. So we won’t be seeing our current top-ranked horses for quite a while. As for Smile Happy, he didn’t have his usual work this weekend and McPeek said he’s probably going to work him only two more times before the Risen Star, saying he’s “plenty fit” and that he could probably get away with only one more work if he wanted to. He still has the fastest Thoro-Graph number, having run a “2” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in only his second career start, which is already approaching Derby-type numbers. And both of his races have been two turns, so he does have bottom under him.

4—Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant’s Causeway – Game For More, by More Than Ready)

Last week I concentrated on his strong series of works and on his pedigree. From a numbers standpoint, he is on a great Thoro-Graph pattern, going from a “13 ½” to a “10 ½” to a solid “4 ¾” in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I also like that his Brisnet figures jumped from an 84 to a 99. His Beyer figures show a more steady improvement, going from a 69 to 79 to 86, indicating he’s still has a lot more improving to do. It all depends on which numbers you believe are more accurate. The Beyers as a whole have not treated the top horses kindly. Of the 23 Future Wager horses, the only horses to get higher than a 90 are Jack Christopher and Commandperformance, and Jack is gone. Following four rapid works at Gulfstream he was given more of a maintenance work, breezing a half in :49 2/5 and then came back Sunday with a :48 3/5 half. It has been decided to enter him in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes and we’ll see what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3 and how he stacks up with a hard-knocking graded stakes winner like Mo Donegal and the unknown Tiz the Bomb. Judging by his three fast five-furlong works in January and his two subsequent half-mile breezes he looks ready for a big effort.



https://www.secretariat.com/derby-ra...ings-week-3-2/


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