Originally Posted by DJofSD

Yes, and, if I played KEE last year then decided to not play it this year, my lack of participation would be a part of the drop. So don't jump to a partially invalid conclusion.

Originally Posted by Charli125

So you're saying that someone might play a meet on an entirely unknown surface the first year it's offered, and then decide not to play on the same surface the next year. Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

If anything, a new surface creates a learning curve, and the amount of handle should increase as handicappers become familiar with the surface. If you invested last year, but not this year, then you really can't blame the surface.

That's just my 2 cents, but I think a lot of players are using the surface as an excuse. (I'm not saying I did any good at KEE myself this year, I did terrible)

Originally Posted by Imriledup

I think a lot of players have the attitude "why should i HAVE To learn a new surface?"

Originally Posted by Charli125

So you're saying that someone might play a meet on an entirely unknown surface the first year it's offered, and then decide not to play on the same surface the next year. Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

If anything, a new surface creates a learning curve, and the amount of handle should increase as handicappers become familiar with the surface. If you invested last year, but not this year, then you really can't blame the surface.

That's just my 2 cents, but I think a lot of players are using the surface as an excuse. (I'm not saying I did any good at KEE myself this year, I did terrible)

Originally Posted by DeanT

These debates are certainly interesting. When change happens to us as horseplayers we do not like it, and never have really. I took a completely different look when these surfaces came in though, namely if I want to play racing I have to try and learn them. Why? Because they are going to be a part of racing forever.

European horseplayers embrace all weather, as they do turf racing, and I believe that there is a way to work these tracks into ones repitoire as many here have mentioned: CJ, Jeff, Dave S and others. I know people might not want to hear this opinion, but here goes: Keeneland this meet was about as fair as any track I have played for the last twelve months. If people did not take the time to give it a shot, use the polycapping database and try and model the track and the trainers, they were missing out on some good betting opps, in my opinion.

I hate to post things anymore because everytime I do someone thinks it is a HANA post. This is just me as a player. I blew my brains out the first poly meet at KEE a couple of years ago and was swearing at it just like everyone else. I blamed all my defeats on the surface. But once I started doing some due diligence the track was not this engima. I found it was me. Ever since last year I have had good meets betting there, and every time it shuts down I wish it had not. It is a super place to play racing.

Please do not jump on me because you disagree. It is just my opinion as a horseplayer. I believe we have to be open minded in racing. I am of the opine that if horses race on jello I might not like it, but I would try to model the jello and find some overlaid winners. It is just the way I am as a horseplayer I guess - stubborn.

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Now that is something I've never heard before. Is that just rhetoric or is there some element of truth to that statement?

Originally Posted by andymays

I will watch for the Aqueduct figures as suggested.

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Down about 10% are the early returns.

Originally Posted by andymays

I believe that the beaten lengths thing is much tighter in synthetic races!

Originally Posted by Bruddah

I agree. The first part of a synthetic race is jockeying for position. The last 3/8ths is about the running. The difference between good and bad horse times in sprinting 3/8ths is very little, thus closer and more photo finishes.

As for me, I don't like 3/8th sprints to the wire. (JMHO)

Originally Posted by andymays

Might as well have a quarter horse race!

Originally Posted by cj

If that was all there was to it, sprinters would stretch out and win with great consistency. Seeing how they don't, I'll think it runs a little deeper.

Originally Posted by Cangamble

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

Personnally I have evolved and adjusted my handicapping. I take very little from those here who merely refuse to learn and just throw up their hands. Tey use any opportunity to bash the use of it. All evidence suggests the poly type surface is safer to the animal particpants--- period. That is clear and rather indisputable unless you are just plane pig headed. Of course OJ was aquitted of a double murder.....so i no longer say anything is absolute. Choose to play or don't play. Never understood the angry venom like disgust at the product. I have also never found a great handicapper yet who can't view races from several different angles. I am also not necessarily convinced that poly creates more "random chaos" than various grass conditions or low level claiming races. Some of the forum make it difficult to see how on earth players ever adjust their handicapping from dirt to grass? To each his own i guess. I will always play Keeneland and support their product precisely because they are much more fan friendly with lower takeouts. On the other hand....I wouldn't make an 3 entry exotic play horizontally or vertically at say- calder or philly where i am surely considered a sucker by their onerous rakes. Game is tough enough without the track scooping 5-12% more out of the pools. Just my 2 cents. Four more of those denominations and I could play a super! Ha! ;)

Originally Posted by dartman51

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

Originally Posted by dartman51

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

Originally Posted by toussaud

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country? I like kurt Becker as much as the next guy but keeneland is not that important.

every bettor has 2-3 tracks they usually play on a daily basis. Keeneland is losing tht fight to be in the top 2-3

Originally Posted by dartman51

While I respect your opinion, and your views, my question to you is ,why not?? If you can learn SOMETHING that will help you put some of these big payoffs in your pocket, why not. And they do still run turf races there. :)

Originally Posted by toussaud

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country?

Originally Posted by DeanT

Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.

Originally Posted by DeanT

Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

Originally Posted by DeanT

I agree. Very good point. Some guys really know how to ride those tracks; and some don't.

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

What amazes me is how very few can see that racing on polycrap = jockey racing instead of horse racing.

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I like betting on horses, not humans.

Originally Posted by Cangamble

http://www.courier-journal.com/artic...y+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

Originally Posted by affirmedny

Is anybody factoring in there was one less entire day of racing this year? Wouldn't that be a significant percentage of handle in a short meet like this? I'm no fan of the poly, but let's be fair.