BRISNET Past Performances beyond 1 1/8
 

Many years ago when I started using BRISNET PPs among other past performance data sources I printed out how they should be used and I was especially focused upon the pace figures fully recognizing they are machine-generated. The current instructions do not say this. I even spoke to one of the public handicappers at CDI about this and they had no idea either way. When I say comparable I mean speed figure wise for sure.

The instructions on their use as I recall, clearly stated that they were not comparable beyond a mile and one-eighth. I am doing this by recall and through moving I lost the printout. As I recall, the printout stated they were good to compare to distances up to 1 1/8 and they may have even stated they were not useful below five furlongs in terms of comparability.

I have gone by that assumption for quite a period of time and have concluded that they naturally rise above the distance on both dirt and turf. It is an assumption without a database build of any robust detail. They even seem to go up with TimeformUS based upon my non-database observations.

Does anyone have any data on this natural change with runners to prove or disprove this theory. It would have to be enough prior starts for runners individually and in total to see. It has helped me find runners going long mostly on turf because of the natural pace being typically slower in my view.

CLARIFICATION OF ORGINAL POST
 

BRISNET PPs are implying that they are comparable across distance in excess of 1 1/8 based upon their guidance of how to use PPs currently. They did not many years ago based upon that same guidance as I recall.

If anyone has any old printouts or access from at least 10 years ago of how to use those Past Performances It would be great to hear from you.

Paul, you have said in the past that you are a writer. As a “writer”, shouldn’t you be able to express yourself in a clearer manner than you are doing here? What exactly are you asking?

Does anyone have the instructions from BRISNET on how to use the PPs and interpret them from many years ago (it might be more than 10 years ago)? The old format said that the PPs were not comparable across all distances from what I remember.

Does anyone have any data that shows convincingly that end time speed figures on TimeformUS or Brisnet naturally rise when the same horses run races more than a mile and one eighth? I would even consider Beyers. I do not expect that someone has a great database on this, but when horse move from a route up to the mile and one eighth and try a marathon defined by me as 1 3/16 or longer especially to 1 3/8 the numbers trend convincingly higher in general not for individual horses but for horses in general.

Thanks for asking for clarification.

really i think dr falken would have just launched the missiles if he had to use brisnet period (let alone beyond 9f) but here's a quick and dirty (probably highly flawed) study i did of bris nyra turf figures since july 17:

9.5f + median = 89.5
9f exactly median= 88.5

source:

https://www.brisnet.com/content/2023...rcuit-oct-2-8/

I am going to reach out again to review par times by distance and class to BRISNET directly. They are based upon large databases or at least I will confirm this. When I go through a review I should be able to validate or deny my hypothesis within reason.