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-   Handicapper's Corner (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=76)
-   -   The Handicapper's Cafe (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=92893)

thaskalos 04-03-2012 01:28 PM

The Handicapper's Cafe
 
I would like to add a "Question & Answer" thread to this forum...in order to encourage more conversation on handicapping and betting.

It is very difficult to talk about handicapping and betting, when you don't know who (or how informed...or how INTERESTED in getting better informed) your audience is.

I am sure that there are legitimate "experts" at this site, because I have been reading their posts here for years; but I am equally certain that there are novices here as well...who are still trying to find their way in this fascinating but frustrating game.

I have repeatedly stated that a mentor is invaluable in this game of ours...because there are so many questions that need an answer...and, also, so many unscrupulous people around...who provide the WRONG answer, because it is financially beneficial to THEM. Without a "true" mentor...a player could easily flounder along for YEARS...without making any real progress in gaining a thorough understanding of this game.

THIS is what I had in mind when I started this Handicapper's Corner. I wanted to be the mentor that I myself wished I would have had...when I started playing this game, 30 years ago.

Any handicapping or betting question you need answered, you should ask right here...and I will provide as complete and accurate an answer as my 30 years in the game will allow. I will also use the more interesting questions to start new threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I think that this will be better than me just starting topics of discussion on my own...thinking that they will be of interest to you, just because they happen to be of interest to me.

Lest anyone misunderstand me, let me state at the very start that, although I consider myself a very knowledgable player, my knowledge of this game is not, by any means, "encyclopedic"...so I welcome the assistance of all of you who would also like to participate here, and present YOUR point of view on things.

My aim here is to provide a place where the interested player, REGARDLESS of his knowledge and experience in the game, can ask a question about some aspect of it...and get that question answered in a prompt and satisfactory manner.

As I said before...I will select the most engaging questions, in order to start other threads...so we can develop these topics further.

I also reserve the right to ask and answer my OWN questions, whenever I feel a topic may need further development...or when I want to steer the conversation in a certain direction.

A word of caution:

I plan on being a lot more liberal in my use of the moderator privileges that PA has bestowed upon me. This forum is for those with REAL questions...who are in need of real ANSWERS.

I will have no tolerance for those whose real purpose is to stymie this discussion...or to ask disingenuous questions, in order to further some mysterious agenda of their own.

Those questions will be unceremoniously deleted.

As I have already stated, my own schedule gets hectic at times...and, although I plan on spending time every night (especially late) participating in our discussion here...I am not starting this with the intent of it revolving around "thaskalos"...

I implore ALL the posters here to participate in our discussion ...so we can get some lively and useful conversation going. With all the expert players we have here, no reasonable question should be left unanswered.

When the industry shows disinterest in properly educating the players in the art/science of handicapping and betting...what other choice do the players have but to educate their own?

My ultimate mission is...and has been from the very beginning...to preserve Paceadvantage's top spot among horse racing forums and message boards.

With that said...let our discussion begin!

Capper Al 04-03-2012 01:56 PM

My Greek friend in cyberspace, you write so darn well. It's going to be difficult competing against you. Good luck with your effort. Hope to see you at Arlington Park this summer.

thaskalos 04-03-2012 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al
My Greek friend in cyberspace, you write so darn well. It's going to be difficult competing against you. Good luck with your effort. Hope to see you at Arlington Park this summer.

I really don't see us as "competitors", my friend...

When people work for the same noble cause, then, IMO, they are on the same team...regardless of the address they choose to occupy.

In any event, I wish you luck in your own endeavors as well...

And I promise you one thing:

You will never hear a derogatory word about you -- or your efforts over at the "bright side" -- from Thaskalos.

No matter WHAT you might say about me, and my efforts here...when you address YOUR audience over there...

CincyHorseplayer 04-03-2012 02:53 PM

I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

thaskalos 04-03-2012 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

Player psychology is my specialty...and I regret that I don't have the time to address your question right now.

I will be back late tonight...with my opinions on the handicapper's "inner" struggle...

Greyfox 04-03-2012 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run.

As Thaskalos is going to expand on this later, let me toss in my two cents worth.

First of all, nearly all players will go on losing streaks, sooner of later. In fact I'm on one now.
Step1. Is accepting the reality that losing streaks happen.

Step2. For me, a losing streak is a message to either play less, bet less,
or even take a total break from the game for a couple of weeks or more.

Secondly, a review of "Why?" you are playing the races, and "Who?" you are playing the races with, and possibly "Where?" you are playing the races, and "What?" races you are playing never hurts. Knowing the answers to those questions can put your play in perspective to other elements in life as well.

CincyHorseplayer 04-03-2012 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox
As Thaskalos is going to expand on this later, let me toss in my two cents worth.

First of all, nearly all players will go on losing streaks, sooner of later. In fact I'm on one now.
Step1. Is accepting the reality that losing streaks happen.

Step2. For me, a losing streak is a message to either play less, bet less,
or even take a total break from the game for a couple of weeks or more.

Secondly, a review of "Why?" you are playing the races, and "Who?" you are playing the races with, and possibly "Where?" you are playing the races, and "What?" races you are playing never hurts. Knowing the answers to those questions can put your play in perspective to other elements in life as well.

Step 2 was key.While I believe that playing relatively often keeps you sharp,it can lead to just going through the motions.I had to stop and get away from it for a minute.I was having half baked handicapping because of burnout and squandering the good handicapping I did do.I wasn't maximizing the races that were there for me.There were sequences of races I could have crushed because they were give me's.Taking just a few weeks off got my passion sparked back up and my mind focused.I had a great,patient,and winning Saturday this week.I had a prerace gameplan and executed.There were no surprises.I was at least in control of myself and was just odds shopping!

Appreciate your input man.

Boulder 04-03-2012 04:03 PM

Thaskalos,

I would like to see you put up some sample races and see how you take them apart. I think this is a great thing you are doing and just hope you don"t get aggravated with the few that try to ruin it. Is there a way I can send a private e-mail. Thanks Boulder

thaskalos 04-03-2012 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boulder
Thaskalos,

I would like to see you put up some sample races and see how you take them apart. I think this is a great thing you are doing and just hope you don"t get aggravated with the few that try to ruin it. Is there a way I can send a private e-mail. Thanks Boulder

Sample races are forthcoming...and they will be the subject of a separate thread.

If you need to contact me privately, send me a PM here...because I haven't yet figured out how to access my e-mail by phone. :)

bob60566 04-03-2012 10:44 PM

Before you consider your sample races, And when selected, Use the fig guys to start your handicapping usually they supply four horses on there lists and good place on there top four has 80% win rate. Bris also supply there power play numbers same thing to handicap down.
Mac:)

Maximillion 04-03-2012 10:59 PM

Thaskalos,

im new here but from reading your posts i understand your a superfecta bettor,

and possibly (like me) an old scool pencil and paper,form in hand player,

so my question is this, when you open your form,do you look for races first where you have identified a longshot to possibly hit the board or do you take apart races at your favorite track(s) etc.?

regards

thaskalos 04-04-2012 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maximillion
Thaskalos,

im new here but from reading your posts i understand your a superfecta bettor,

and possibly (like me) an old scool pencil and paper,form in hand player,

so my question is this, when you open your form,do you look for races first where you have identified a longshot to possibly hit the board or do you take apart races at your favorite track(s) etc.?

regards

Yes...I am an "old-school", pencil and paper, Form in hand, superfecta bettor.

The only things "hi-tech" about my game are some expensive pens I recently bought, which write even while upside-down...and allow me to write things unto my Racing Form while I am lying down on my couch.

I do not have any "favorite tracks"...I only have favorite races.

I look for full, competitive fields...comprised of older horses, with full past performance records.

Maximillion 04-04-2012 12:38 AM

yes thats whats aggravating about tracks like delta, penn etc. only 6 pps, not a complete ppf profile

thaskalos 04-04-2012 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
I want to talk about handicapping factors that aren't about speed or pace or class but strictly about the bettor.Handicapping oneself and betting habits and the psychology of a player.

After yanking myself out of a losing streak late last year,an inexplicable run that damaged badly what had been a year of a 71% ROI for 10 months,I had to break down my each and every move and impose strict betting rules.Doing so I realized that my reality was getting too far removed from my philosophy.My temper was short and my aggression was too readily apparent.I was trying to force it.I had success to the point where I thought it was time to do business and through sheer force of willpower make a run.

I couldn't even talk about this a month ago.It was a learning experience albeit a very painful one.Instructive nevertheless.I broke down things into odds brackets,grading races,was influenced by the Optimal Position Sizing post on here and made that a point of focus to correspond to the race grades.Each day became less about wins and losses but in analyzing what I was thinking at a certain time.The process.Clearing up the going from point A to point B.If you have any advice about just the flow of playing,preparation,just having that innate sense of balance of gameplan and execution,I would be grateful.I have made a pact this year to not learn any new methodology but focus on what's floating around my head at every moment.I'm already becoming more efficient and making more money.But not quite there yet.

Losing streaks are an inescapable part of the game, and the player must learn to effectively deal with them...if he intends to keep his bankroll (and his sanity) intact.

When one of these losing streaks presents itself, you have to ask yourself the following question:

Am I playing my "A" game, and sticking to my normal gameplan...or am I losing control and chasing my losses, thus turning a normal bankroll fluctuation into a possible financial disaster?

When in the middle of a losing streak, it becomes more imprortant than ever to be as disciplined and in control as possible with our bankroll...and our handicapping choices.

If you can keep your composure, and still stick to your normal gameplan in spite of the losing streak...then there is no reason to make any changes to your normal way of doing things -- because losing streaks are very normal in our game...and they often end as suddenly as they appear.

But if you find that you are losing control and starting to "chase" your losses, in order to get "even" quicker than is normally possible...then -- as Greyfox said -- a total break from the game is an excellent idea.

My friend...I want you to remember this:

Losing streaks play a very important role in our development as players...because they reveal to us how "mature" we really are...and how far we still have to go in order to reach the sort of self-mastery that this game requires -- if winning money is our prime motivation.

In this regard, losing streaks are not the "curse" that most players think they are; they are just a "test"...to grade our REAL advancement as players.

When I was first getting serious about online poker, I was often bewildered by the "bad beats" I would suffer...often at the hands of players much less "informed" than I was.

I sought the advice of a friend of mine, who was a professional online poker player...and who played in much bigger games than I did.

"How can I deal with these bad beats?"...I asked him. "I am playing against players much worse than I am...and yet I can't win a hand."

Instead of saying anything to me, he allowed me to watch over his shoulder as he played his own day's session...playing 4 tables of no-limit holdem at the same time -- at stakes 10-times my own.

I was horrified by what I saw...

Here was this high-limit professional player, suffering the exact same bad beats that I was experiencing...except he was losing THOUSANDS in the process -- instead of the insignificant (by comparison) amounts that these bad beats were costing me.

And yet, he wasn't disturbed by this in the least...nor did his gameplan change in the slightest because of this blatant display of bad luck. He played the exact same, selectively-aggressive game he always played...regardless of whether he was winning or losing.

I grew up a lot as a gambler that day...because I realized a very important thing:

We ALL suffer through bad luck in gambling...and the BEST players suffer much more than we do...because they bet a lot more money.

But they stick to their gameplan without deviation, because they have RESPECT for their "game"...and don't want to see it dragged through the mud.

A gambler's life is full of peaks and valleys, and there is nothing any of us can do about it...because it is out of our control.

The only thing we CAN control, is our REACTION to these violent swings of fate.

The best players are not perturbed by them...and they thrive.

Lesser players are tormented by them...and they perish.

And it's only fair, because how you handle adversity is the true measure of a gambler...and of a man, in general...

Scofield 04-04-2012 06:39 AM

Thaskalos,

Im also new to this forum my question to you is before you even open a racing form to handicap the races do you have a set bankroll for the day?


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