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-   -   Best effort for the mile (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=137551)

Ray2000 04-06-2017 04:17 AM

Best effort for the mile
 
If a horses paces on the lead at the rail for the full mile,
Which of these pace scenarios shows the best effort?

LottaKash 04-06-2017 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray2000 (Post 2148560)
If a horses paces on the lead at the rail for the full mile,
Which of these pace scenarios shows the best effort?

Ray, just off the top of this ole noggin, I would have to say that the window of 1/4's is too limiting in respect to everyday fractions that have many multiple swings these days..

But, if pressed, given that limitation, I would guess at 29, 29, 31, 31, as my weak pick, followed closely by the 29, 31, 31, 29
scenario..

Funny thing tho, I have spent an inordinate amount of time flipping and making patterns, just such as these, lately...

If you substituted and used and measured "whole numbers" that range of 50 to 100, I am quite certain you would find some very worthwhile eye openening "pace patterns",in this regard

GL Ray with this, I hope you find what you are looking for....

sharkey11 04-06-2017 10:46 AM

i was wondering instead of quarters why not half miles. 3 halfs to the mile ie. 1st q and 2nd 1st q an 3rd 3rd an fin . and i know that if you could find a horse that can move well in the turns that might be a good bet . thanks ray ;)

Ray2000 04-06-2017 11:37 AM

My reason for this poll was based on the generally accepted fact that all raceway horses have one brush, the classier horses can be used twice and champs could have three.
For the 2 brush type, does 2 accelerations with a breather in between expend more energy than an extended 1/2 mile fight?
Just curious what the cappers' thoughts were on this.

sharkey
I can't find it right now but there was a good thread on comparing the "3" halves in a mile race in this Forum a few years back.

willphorse 04-06-2017 12:22 PM

A better interpretation would be track size and if the horse was wide around a turn in 29

Stick 04-06-2017 06:47 PM

This is kind of a tough one, but I am going to go with 29,31,31,29. Obviously, the driver took advantage of a lack of pressure to milk the 2nd and 3rd quarter. But I have seen many horses win this way where they were in complete control and could have used that 29 somewhere else to put away other horses. Interesting question.

EdZone 04-06-2017 07:05 PM

I don't even think much. I already vote 29,31,31,29 long time ago.

MutuelClerk 04-06-2017 10:47 PM

I voted 31 29 29 31. Interesting question.

pandy 04-09-2017 12:38 PM

29 on both ends....this horse can leave fast, finish fast, and is rateable...going to win a lot of races because that's what it takes.

EasyGoer89 04-10-2017 03:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MutuelClerk (Post 2149083)
I voted 31 29 29 31. Interesting question.

That was my vote too.

Sea Biscuit 04-10-2017 10:39 AM

For those who believe that a horse who can leave fast and come home fast is a good horse to bet we have a horse at Woodbine in the first race tonight who had the following fractions when he went wire to wire in his last outing from the 7 hole which he won at 17-1.

His fractions were 26-30.2-31.2-26.3. Very unusual fractions even for Woodbine to have two sub 27 qtrs in the race His name is Only Half Bad. He is 5-1 ML and he is racing in the same class.

If you do decide to bet him, good luck. As far as I am concerned I cannot touch him with a 10 ft pole. The reason being wire horses who get away with slow middle halfs make poor bets at the windows.

I don't expect to see this horse in the exacta or the tri.

Ray2000 04-10-2017 11:41 AM

Interesting example Sea
With Jeff Bratt Picking him in the program he'll be overbet, but this field is weak.
Passport To Art is the one to beat and OHB will have to respond to Sylvain like he did with McNair.


As for the poll:
Interesting results so far, more diverse opinions than I thought there'd be.
The two scenarios emerging are most energy output comes from:
An extended 1/2 mile brush after a slow 1/2 mile pace.
2 brushes, start and finish with just motoring the middle half.
willphorse is right about the effect of track size and wides, but I over simplified these choices.
Racing with cover or going the long mile effects energy output when evaluating the current form or shape. Track surface and wind conditions also come into play.

BTW
I'd like the program to include wind speed and direction but that ain't gonna happen.
When I was a regular track goer at The Meadows I'd always check the flag when I got there
and adjust picks for best front end or closer on windy days. Here again, wind direction on 2 turn, 3 turn, or 4 turn track makes a difference.

EdZone 04-10-2017 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit (Post 2150966)
For those who believe that a horse who can leave fast and come home fast is a good horse to bet we have a horse at Woodbine in the first race tonight who had the following fractions when he went wire to wire in his last outing from the 7 hole which he won at 17-1.

His fractions were 26-30.2-31.2-26.3. Very unusual fractions even for Woodbine to have two sub 27 qtrs in the race His name is Only Half Bad. He is 5-1 ML and he is racing in the same class.

If you do decide to bet him, good luck. As far as I am concerned I cannot touch him with a 10 ft pole. The reason being wire horses who get away with slow middle halfs make poor bets at the windows.

I don't expect to see this horse in the exacta or the tri.

I still like the #7. but have to watch out the #2 as the new trainer is Carmen Auciello .
I think I'll bet 72/725 but possible they are top 3 favorite and I'll only watch.

pandy 04-10-2017 01:28 PM

That 7 horse at Woodbine tonight, it would be good to know if there was a tailwind in his last race. If there was a tailwind then his effort wouldn't be as good as it looks because the first and last quarters would have been wind aided.

Ray2000 04-10-2017 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pandy (Post 2151023)
That 7 horse at Woodbine tonight, it would be good to know if there was a tailwind in his last race. If there was a tailwind then his effort wouldn't be as good as it looks because the first and last quarters would have been wind aided.

That's true, and the obverse (opposite?, reverse?) is also true.

If there was a strong headwind, he's becoming a monster...:)


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