Most Likely Mistakes Made by Beginners
 

• Don't read enough books
• Don't practice enough with paper and pencil
• Don't respect the public enough
• Don't keep records of wagers
• Don't study losses
• Don't play devil's advocate with winners -- admit you were lucky
• Don't re-read enough books

Here's my starter list. Add to it.

Trying to pick winners instead of looking for the best proposition available when price is considered.

Ears.
Listening to people who have been losing for years who present themselves as experts.
(In efffect it pays to hang round with proven winners.)

Not excepting the fact that losing is all a part of winning. There is no way of winning every day..accept this and the game becomes not as daunting knowing that it is not a right or wrong game.

Reading too many books. The guys writing the books are losers or at best marginly profitable or they wouldn't be writing books. Even what many consider one of best authors of handicapping books, William Quirin, gave it up and started writing books about golf . The new bettor, if he has a chance, needs to come up with something that very few other bettors are doing. He needs to get ahead of the curve. He needs to look at new ideas from outside of horse racing and figure out how to apply them to horse racing.

I would also tell newbies to avoid the books, at least the ones about handicapping. I'd tell them to get a good piece of handicapping software and concentrate all their efforts on learning how to bet.

100% in agreement. Very nice post Robert.

Mike (Dr Beav)

I agree at the newbie stage, you should avoid handicapping books. However, once you develop your own handicapping methodology and are comfortable with it, you should read every handicapping book you can get your hands on. It will become important to understand what others are doing.

Mike (Dr Beav)

maybe that is why i am so bad, i never read a book about horseracing in my life, i have no idea how to take notes, and if i went back on all my mistakes i would never be able to go to bed at night.

Most likely mistake..not knowing if that 4-1 horse is a goodbet or a bad bet.

Yes, exactly.

What I was also getting it is avoiding the merry-go-round of trying to outhandicap everyone, never figuring out how to leverage the information you have to the maximum. I really think newbies shouldn't handicap at all. That's why I said get a good piece of software. Of course you've still got to configure things to your liking, etc, but try to start with some high-level numbers. Then go learn how to make money with that info. Once you've got some wagering skill, then learn how to handicap in ways that you might find more interesting (or don't).

Of course I'm assuming from the start your goal is to make money. So I'm suggesting "learn how to make money" rather than spending all your time learning how to size up the field in the assumption that doing that really well will automatically make you money (it won't). Of course some people just like handicapping and trying to pick winners, so that's fine too if that's what you enjoy. Just don't burden your enjoyment of that process with the idea that it will be profitable...

I think Dr Beav's ideas about using Bayes in Handicapping are a great new idea even if I sometimes criticize some of his posts. That is something a new handicapper should look into because I can guarantee that very few bettors are using it.

Ding Ding Ding!!! We have a winner.

Today, you are playing against the guy with the best software, the best data etc. That's who is winning in the pools. That is your competition in the pools. Learn to beat them and nothing else matters.

You can read the books, and augment your play with a few things from the best books (Crist, Beyer) but it won't get the whole job done.

The biggest mistake made by beginning players?

That's easy!

They spend all of their time learning how to handicap...and no time at all learning how to BET.

At the OTBs, you see them poring over the past performances until the horses start entering the starting gate...and then they dash to the teller window, and create their bets while waiting in line.

It never occurs to them that learning how to BET is even MORE important than learning how to handicap.

They don't pay you for your handicapping opinions; they pay you for your BETS!

The only reason I would advocate reading books is to know what not to do. If I thought there were any good books out there, (I don't know of any), the information contained therein would become too widely known. I consider handicapping writers to be my mortal enemy, trying to eliminate my edge. Fortunately, they are on a completely different path than me.

The advice I would give a new player is to figure out what everybody else does, and then do something different. (Mostly because what everyone else does is lose.)