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-   -   Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution? (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=171925)

Dave Schwartz 08-08-2022 12:04 PM

Pace Handicappers: Do You Use Energy Distribution?
 
Question for those of you who do paceline selection. Do you use energy percentages?

dansan 08-08-2022 09:40 PM

How did you vote Dave thatís what I want to know lol

Dave Schwartz 08-09-2022 12:18 AM

"I do not select pacelines."

This, despite being a pace handicapper.

Frankly, I never got it to work for me, but am revisiting it as I get closer to the release of my new software.

The Pace Module - nicknamed TBrain, - is looking to be pretty fantastic.

ranchwest 08-09-2022 03:06 AM

I consider %Median to be very important, but I would have no idea of how to use that in pace line selection.

Dave Schwartz 08-09-2022 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest (Post 2822902)
I consider %Median to be very important, but I would have no idea of how to use that in pace line selection.

The Sartin guys used to say that the horses had to fit the model.

IOW, they'd use it in their HANDICAPPING.

andicap 08-09-2022 09:05 AM

Dave,
I use energy to detect races that had more of a front-end skew than others by examining the 1st and 2nd calls. I promote horses who pressed the pace in races where the %E is above average in either call, especially those that remained competitive to the end. I demote closers who fail to exploit these set-ups.

I've found a number of high early energy races where the pace figures didn't point to an abnormal front end pressure but where the leaders came back strong when the pace figured to be less energy intensive.

ranchwest 08-09-2022 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz (Post 2822916)
The Sartin guys used to say that the horses had to fit the model.

IOW, they'd use it in their HANDICAPPING.

I don't have time to maintain a model, so I use the horses in the race to simulate a model. I then see which horses are frequently outside the %M "model".

But I am still not understanding what the relationship to pace line selection would be.

geroge.burns99 08-09-2022 10:21 AM

% EE starts off with Pace Line selection....

HSH has 13 ways of selecting each Factor...

In this case First Fraction is used ...Fr1....so which will work out of the13?

I like what Ranch suggested if he's taking about the average of the horses whole PP's...

The only consistent part of the race is how the horses break ...everything else depends how the race sets up

ranchwest 08-09-2022 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 (Post 2822952)
% EE starts off with Pace Line selection....

HSH has 13 ways of selecting each Factor...

In this case First Fraction is used ...Fr1....so which will work out of the13?

I like what Ranch suggested if he's taking about the average of the horses whole PP's...

The only consistent part of the race is how the horses break ...everything else depends how the race sets up

The median, not the average. I take the median of all %M's, then establish a range and determine which races fall outside the range.

I still don't see that as a valid way to establish a pace line.

To me, ideally, a pace line should be a competitive race under conditions similar to today.

geroge.burns99 08-09-2022 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest (Post 2822961)
The median, not the average. I take the median of all %M's, then establish a range and determine which races fall outside the range.

I still don't see that as a valid way to establish a pace line.

To me, ideally, a pace line should be a competitive race under conditions similar to today.

I don't believe we are deciding a pace line here ....we are looking for a winning pace scenario that the horse fits

geroge.burns99 08-09-2022 10:57 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Heres a screen shot of HTR VELOCITY

This Gulfstream Winner paid $21 on Sunday....

Look at his EE% in his "decent" Races?

Any similarities?

headhawg 08-09-2022 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 (Post 2822963)
I don't believe we are deciding a pace line here ....we are looking for a winning pace scenario that the horse fits

Not according to the poll -- Question for those of you who do paceline selection. Do you use energy percentages?

Dave Schwartz 08-09-2022 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest (Post 2822951)
I don't have time to maintain a model, so I use the horses in the race to simulate a model. I then see which horses are frequently outside the %M "model".

But I am still not understanding what the relationship to pace line selection would be.

Nothing to do with paceline selection, other than you have to select a paceline to know what the energy% are.

ranchwest 08-09-2022 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 (Post 2822963)
I don't believe we are deciding a pace line here ....we are looking for a winning pace scenario that the horse fits

I guess I didn't understand the question. lol

I also use the median %M to establish how the field wants to go. If it is a late field, then there's still got to be some early horses in the race. Those early horses aren't going to handle going early and will likely back up. Otherwise, I assume the race will be normal and I just evaluate the individual horses.

Dave Schwartz 08-09-2022 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by headhawg (Post 2822965)
Not according to the poll -- Question for those of you who do paceline selection. Do you use energy percentages?

Sorry if I confused people.

I was saying that the poll was for people who select pacelines.

If you don't select pacelines, how would you even have energy pcts to model?


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