BigM Fractional Analysis - 01/29 & 01/30
 

Decided to start betting the harness horses again and one of the tools that can be useful to find individual spot plays & potential Key races is the fractional analysis of each race.

Attaching the Friday & Saturday analysis of the Big M. Hope its useful.

Color code legend is at the top.

H1 - 1st & 2nd quarters
H2 - 2nd & 3rd quarters
H3 - 3rd & 4th quarters

Q1 - 1st quarter
Q2 - 2nd quarter
Q3 - 3rd quarter
Q4 - 4th quarter

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/p...&pictureid=101

Sounds like a plan. Not seeing anything attached though.

Sorry, Had to make the picture public

[QUOTE=hpattern;2698732]Decided to start betting the harness horses again and one of the tools that can be useful to find individual spot plays & potential Key races is the fractional analysis of each race.

Attaching the Friday & Saturday analysis of the Big M. Hope its useful.

Color code legend is at the top.

H1 - 1st & 2nd quarters
H2 - 2nd & 3rd quarters
H3 - 3rd & 4th quarters

Q1 - 1st quarter
Q2 - 2nd quarter
Q3 - 3rd quarter
Q4 - 4th quarter

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/p...&pictureid=102

A guy at the OTB this weekend mentioned that the horse's final times were faster than the others. Another guy responded something like, time is only important in jail. The final times are just faster or slower because of the pace of the race. Then he went on to talk about certain fractions of the race. The first guy then jumped back in and said I thought time was only important in jail? Aren't the fractions also slower or faster because of the pace of the race? So what do you think is the best way to use the H1, H2, and H3 you posted?

Anyone who doesn't believe that time is important in a "race" is clueless. Sure, the pace affects the final time but every horse has some recent races where the pace was quick or honest and you can certainly get a good idea of how fast the horse can go and whether or not the horse is fast enough to compete in today's race.

The most difficult part of speed handicapping is the "suck along" final times when a horse records a fast time simply because the race was so fast. But, again, these are pretty obvious to see for experienced handicappers.

I do agree with Bob, but with a little I'd like to add to what he said.

Times is one of the many important factors in harness racing. Post position and aggressiveness plays a major role on how a race shapes up. With most harness races going single file for much of the race, and horses moving 1st over from 3rd or 4th position about 3/8 pole. Obviously, that is extremely vague each race has a specific layout, but as a percentage, that will be the race breakdown.

I have been a student of Bruno De Julio and his approach to thoroughbred handicapping for some time. He studies workouts, but more-so studies the way the move, how they feel, etc.

When looking at internal fractions, or big power moves within a race, time is important. What is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT in my opinion is HOW they happen. Looking at pp's, you can't look at at fractions or "suck along" races at face value.

As with form patterns, standardbreds typically hold form from race to race better than thoroughbreds, mainly because they race week to week compared to month to month. One spot angle I LOVE, and ties into internal fractions and time is a horse that has a MONSTER race. That will be either a big brush or a very fast time. I love to play against these horses 1-2 starts after this race. Sometimes, especially classy horses, they're able to ride on that adrenaline for another week and will come back with another big race before starting to regress. For the claimers, mediocre NW classes or lower, a big race will be followed up with a poor, regressed performance. These are the heavy favorites that lose! Horses are athletes that become sore or have complications after a big performance!

I was an ex-college wrestler. I can assure you, if I stepped back on the mat at the moment, I could probably win some matches, however, the following week, I'D BE ONE SORE PUPPY!!!! :lol:

Fractional times are a tool used in conjunction with the chart of that race and visual observation, to help determine the shape of a horse. Note the color coding of the fractions is based on the relationship of the fractions, to each other , for that race only.

The H1, H2, H3 divide the race into halves, and thus give one an idea of the relationship between the halves.

For more info look at this link from Steve M whom used to have a website that had extremely useful Harness information. tinyurl.com/qfex48ke

Great to see some serious thought give to harness racing on this board.


Much of handicapping harness races is visual and creating your own key races, both positive and negative key races. Time of course is important but slow paced races = slower times. But the horses coming out of a key yet slow paced race can be overlooked.


Ans of course other intangibles like losing to win, (attain future class relief) and trainer intent and driver ( horses that race every week are not on go every week) unlike the runners who need to make the most of every start.