First time starters, teach me what to look for.
 

Let's talk "First-time starters". When looking at first time starters what do you look for? I could definitely use a refresher on what to look for with firsters.

I have been handicapping since I was 7 years old. But I don't think I've been approaching first time starters the wrong way.

The barn, the pedigree and the works (relative to the trainer). All of this needs to be viewed relative to the field. That probably doesn't help much but it is the starting point.

8/1 or less on the morning line.

I dont try to figure them out.

I either find a horse with 2 3 or 4 starts that I prefer.

Its a guess, even from top barns. If you buy workout reports, then maybe.

If its a race that I hate the experienced horses I am spreading but usually passing. Guessing has not worked at all for me over the years.

First time starters are almost always overbet.

1 and 1a. -- trainer stats and sire stats with FTS. I know you can lie with statistics, but used correctly they will put you on live FTS.

2. Morning line. I'm not sure if 8-1 is the magic number as has been suggested, but I think that it is important. Look for an ML in the lowest three or four (depending on field size). I would add that the tote board can help here as well.

3. A competent jockey at the very least. What trainer would want a slug riding a good maiden?

4. (optional) Yeah, if you know the workout pattern of the trainer it's certainly helpful, but the trainer win% is good enough for me.

I don't have recent stats, but FTS are up against it. I would pass on playing one unless the top three above are a go. And when in doubt, just pass the race entirely.

When half the field is comprised of firsters...then I don't give the race a second look. In the other cases, the quality of the more "experienced" competition will decide how I will approach the remaining firsters. The more accomplished the experienced horses look...the more I will doubt the winning chances of even the well-regarded firsters. If the field looks below average ability-wise, then I will include a "well-connected" firster in my horizontal wagers...but I never have enough confidence to wager on such a horse to win. I mean...even Secretariat lost his first race.

What does the rest of the field look like?
Are they a bunch with multiple tries and speed figures below the norm for MSW winners?

If the field looks weak, the FTS might have a good chance.
Of course considering trainer/owner records, odds, and pedigree.

I don't find many FTS worth a bet due to odds too low.
there are lot of other races coming up in 10 minutes for me to waste a lot of time on a firster.

Iwill sooner play a full field of M30,000 NYBs with dozens of tries.

And one thing that does not appear in the form, Blinkers.

I usually play 2nd time starters, but in open MSW only.

o One thing I look for in a first time starter is a fast workout early in the workout sequence and then evenly spaced works for no more than 6-8 weeks. I toss horses that worked a long time before racing. That tells me there is a problem.

o Watching the board can be helpful. I look for the horse to get a couple of big betting infusions.

o Some sires, like Storm Cat, have a lot of precocious progeny. Those sires are good to know.

o At Saratoga, Pletcher first timers win 40% of the 6 furlong 2 YO maiden dirt sprints. Chad Brown is great with first time fillies on the turf. And 2 YO state-bred maidens are impossible to figure out consistently.

I'm the same way with horses out of First Dude, especially in maiden sprints.

I like to see some good gate works 4 F or 5F. Workouts under 4 furlongs are not as effective as the longer works. Watch the FTS that is holding his odds steady late in the betting when the top 3 or 4 choices are being bet hard. At Saratoga it is amazing to see top trainers win with FTS at 10/1 or higher while the crowd hammers the top trainers lower priced FTS.

Personally, I skip FTS races because there are so many other fish in the see.

However, I could play them. The strategy I employ is to wait until the end of the handicapping, after the final contenders have been selected.

Then I look at a single "object" (i.e. 5 factors weighted together) that are all "FTS friendly" so the entire field can be handicapping on an even basis.

Factors such as jockey, trainer, best workout rating in last 45 days, days since last race RaceOrWork will do.

Any FTS who comes in ranked within 1 pt of my 2nd-best contender qualifies.

There are a lot of really solid angles in here to use IMO. Some great advice. All I would add would be to not play it with the same monetary emphasis as other types of races if you play it .

Many horses are very well intended but some just need a race, or even a couple of races to get themselves mentally together. Especially those without a high early turn of foot and solid gate ethic. Secretariat comes to mind. Yikes.

First off: If anyone in this forum wants to try my handicapping sheets for free today, just email me and I'll send them to you (thephantom@trackphantom.com).

As far as 1sters go, I don't think there is a "catch-all" approach. It really depends on how the horses in the field you have run look. If they are weak compared to par for the level, then it opens up for a first timer.

Trainer intent is first and foremost the thing to flush out. Some trainers give their runners an out before they are tight and others look to win right away. I use DRF Formulator to identify this.

Secondly, if a trainer is live first out, I'll expand the filter in DRF Formulator to include all workouts and review his winners to see if the patterns are similar.

I also will review clocker reports where I can. Not a bad idea to see some speed and win early pedigree in the bloodlines.