Shanghai Bobby
 

I'm starting to think this might be a very special horse. I know it is Pletcher and that his two year olds often don't carry their form deep into their three year old campaign, but that was a might impressive win in the Champagne on top of a Hopeful win. Has the breeding to go long.

I question the long term viability of any and every Pletcher 2yr old.

He did very well today with his 2 yr olds

Lemme clarify...by "long term" i am speaking mainly of their Ky Derby and Ky Oaks chances, but also to a lesser extent the other major races for 3yr old colts and fillies (Preakness-Belmont-Haskell-Travers...Acorn-CCA Oaks-Alabama)

Probably the favorite at SA and went much faster than Dreaming of Julia who now seems vulnerable.

Is he even going to Santa Anita?

no doubt.....he has problems keeping horses like this going. but right now....this horse has been winning for fun. he seems to be getting better the longer they go too. yesterdays race was not even a contest. he looked like a winner during that entire race.

I'm guessing that as they get older Archwarrior will be the best of the three.With his sire he should get better around 2 turns at 3 yr and peak 4 yr into 5 yr.We'll see if Pletcher keeps him around that long.

1/9 this horse is off the Derby Trail by February and retired by September. Sad thing is...this probably is the most realistic assessment of this horses future.

Question for the crowd. Is the lack of success of Pletcher 3 year olds a matter of him overtraining two year olds, or is it the desire of owners to prop up the value (sale and stud) of their three year olds by having them meet with early success at age two? In other words, where does fault lie most, with Pletcher's methodology or the owners asking him to do exactly what he is doing?

That's a good question, but from a handicapping perspective it seems clear that cranking then up right out of the box is not a very good idea.

How about 3yo's of Pletcher's with a form cycle?Can we get one?Wondering what they'll do and how much better they will be between layoffs sucks.

If we assume the average horseman owner is an intelligent and well informed individual about training regimens, then the fact that the average horseplayer sees a pattern with Pletcher two year olds means that it can not have escaped the owners attention either. Therefore, since owners continue to use Pletcher, it must acceptable and to the betterment of their bottom lines. After all, this is a business and not a gentleman's sport.

Can there be any other viable reason?

Yeah.Because it's way more fun to see a good ole boy say to himself "I got a good one.I'm going to smoke you early and often".

Waitin............

Shanghai Bobby, on to BC.