If Justify doesn't fire, I have no idea what will happen.

Much easier to predict who will fill out the superfecta behind Justify if he does fire.

It's not going to be a 'jackpot' with Justify on top.

The public is going to bet Bravazo and Hofburg under Justify, so if your opinion is genuinely different than that, you should have a decent opportunity for value.

I hope you are right about this. Sounds about right to me.

I like fading the fast closing Bravazo in this one on your basis, though he does have a slightly better distance pedigree than most; I tend to think it'll be Hofburg and Blended Citizen as the main challengers near the finish.

Is Blended Citizen the only winner of a race at Belmont in this field?

I like Blended and Hofburg (but don't think either can win) and Bravazo other than his most recent romp in slop at Preakness really isn't a very accomplished horse and he's had enough races to prove that. Blended does seem to like the BEL track but will have to watch hofburg gallops. Tenfold looks awesome and we haven't seen Bandua yet.

Bandua is going to race in The Queen's Vase (or something like that) instead from what I saw on HRN.

Bravazo has run the following pattern: 1 bad race, 3 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, 1 bad race, 2 good races, so will the Belmont be a 3rd good race or a bad one?

The horses that win the Belmont have very flat running lines, with gradual decelaration. The ideal horse was Secretariat, because his natural rhythm was consecutive 24s, Pharoah was a good Belmont horse because he had a similar, though slower, natural rhythm. Union Rags, though a snail, also had the right running pattern too.

Its not primarily a pedigee race, its a rhythm race. The fastest horse with the flatest pace line wins. After the flat paced horses are identified, adding in pedigree and jockey can help refine choices.

I haven't gone through all of the horses yet, but I went through the four I was most curious about: Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, and Bravazo. Blended Citizen is out. Bravazo is still a cipher. Tenfold is very strong, as is Vino Rosso.

Vinno Rosso's pedigree is the best in the field, Curlin over Street Cry, he has the best jockey for the race, he's fresh, and his owner actually wants to win. I think trainer is less important, but Pletcher is probably the best for this race.

Tenfold has a good pedigree for the distance. Assmussen said he's going to breeze him slowly, 1:01 to get him in the right frame of mind, which is the best strategy.

Tenfold fits the winner style better than Vino Rosso, but Johnny V is a no small thing.

Edit--Restoring Hope looked interesting, he's a Giant's Causway, and when there are two Baffert's in a race, bet the one with longer odds.

I think a lot of horses can win this race. Obviously justify. Ive made cases for Bravazo and noble Indy.

I wouldn’t count out Blended Citizen. He’s got the breeding. Doug O’neil is dangerous. This horse can run a winning race.

I will probably bet against Justify for the win on a few tickets.

Right now, I like Bandua, Bravazo, Tenfold and.... Free Drop Billy for top part.

FDB seems to go way under the radar but he has never been out of the money except in the BC Juvie and the KY Derby (which I am not holding against ANY horse). In the Bluegrass he was making quite a bit of headway in the stretch when that other horse drifted sharply over and really almost ran into him.....looks like he will like 1-1/2 on his breeding.

Wow, I watched Blended Citizens workout. He’s physically impressive. Late developer. He’s going to run big

Correction
 

I finally went over all of the PPS. When I wrote the above, the PPs I was thinking were Tenfold's were actually Hofburg's. Hofburg has the right running style, Tenfold doesn't. :(
I haven't decided how I am going to handle this. Tenfold should be kicked off the ticket but I really like this horse. Hofburg should be on the ticket but money starts to become an issue.

Here are the horses who have the best lines for this race: Noble Indy, Restoring Hope, Vinno Rosso, Hofburg, and Seahenge. Restoring Hope and Vino Rosso have the best pedigrees. Vino Rosso has the best jockey.

I couldn't see why the West's would run Restoring Hope here and not in the the Easy Goer, until I saw the colt's pedigree.

Tenfold has the right breeding. I would keep him on ticket, I am using him very liberally in all top spots. If you forced me to pick a winner, right now, and only gave me a choice between Tenfold and Hofburg, I would take Tenfold. That's just me. 3.00 DI with 26 dosage points is quite a potent angle, horses who have won with that dosage index over last 30 years all had at least 26 points, less than 26 dosage points, like Justify, not so much. Of course, that is just sire side stuff.

Why don't you like Blended Citizen...curious.

I don't like Vino Rosso very much for the win. There has never been a horse who won the BEL with a dosage of between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Not crazy about his 0.88 CD either......but..... He does have some nice stamina from his mares side though and enough speed from that side to build to getting the distance.

I dunno what is going on with Seahenge or Bandua. Seahenge has not won a race in quite a while. If they come I think I like Bandua better, but I haven't heard they have even been confirmed, are they coming?????

It didn't bother you that he stopped?

DRF said it was supposed to have been an 8f work, but that he was pull up.

For a 12f race, I don't like to see a horse come to a stand still after crossing the wire in a work.

Have you seen the work? He didn’t stop nor did it look like he wanted to.

Someone at HRN posted that Bandua was not coming, but I don't know if that is correct. If he runs, unless he has crazy long odds, I will likely not use him at all, due to money constraints.

Yesterday, Coolmore confirmed Seahenge, he was always expected to run, since the Derby. I'm pretty sure the primary motivation in running now is to give the Ryan Moore practice for when Mendelssohn ships over for the Woodward, unless they use a local jockey, but even then, I think practice for September is still a key motivation.

He's a decent horse. His Pat Day Mile is pretty indicative of his style. He is the anthithesis of swift, but he can get into a rhythmn and keep at it, even when totally out of his element, not unlike Vino Rosso. Of all the horses in the field, he's the one I know has the fitness to stay 12fs, how many miles hacking uphill over rolling fields in county Tipperary, do you think he's laid down in his life? He has the right style for the race.

TBH I thought I would like Blended Citizen, but his dirt form is the exact opposite of what wins this race, his turf form is perfect, but he is another animal on turf. He should have been in the Pennine yesterday instead of the Belmont next week. Doug will likely run him in the Belmont Derby in the summer. His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.

FWIW Pharoah's dosage was 4.33, with an 88 CD. For pedigree, I prefer AWD of sire/dam/sibs. For this race, I prefer energy distribution over all else. Pharoah was a metronome.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truen...-distance.aspx

Where did DRF say it was supposed to be 8f? I was unable to find that elsewhere, thanks. Equibase has it as a 5F. and a then elsewhere saw gallop out at 1:17 and change, kinda odd.

His work yesterday was terrible, so that sealed the deal for me.

THIS work?

https://www.xbtv.com/video/blended-c...june-2nd-2018/

Neck bowed, champing at the bit, on his toes. What more do you want?