Worst Kentucky Derby Wager
 

We've all had plenty.

I was at the 2009 Derby when Mine That Bird won. I had the wrong bird in Summer Bird, and they were both 50/1

Got paid later in the Belmont

My worst was undoubtedly Intense Holiday in 2014. Man did I really like that horse.

Dullahan in 2012. I have a connection to the breeders' family and they said he was training fantastic on dirt so I bit. He did run well, but alas.

I bet Capote in 1987. That was pretty bad.

Cure The Blues

Gemologist is one of many Derby disasters for me

Back-to-back years, my top choice drew the rail with the old (split) gate.

In 2010, it was the well backed (6.3-1 favorite) Lookin at Lucky in a great performance all things considered.

In 2011, I went back to the rail with Archarcharch (12.3-1) who was seriously injured in the race though completed the 10 furlongs valiantly.

Since those two races, I have been a very strong advocate of a 14-horse gate maximum despite the 20 horse gate that was bought for the race.

Worth redboarding my best Derby ever was the 2006 edition with Barbaro (6.1-1) who I loved in the race. More importantly, I also loved Bluegrass Cat (30.0-1) completing a $587.00 exacta. Was so engaged with cheering for Barbaro that I did not realize I caught the exacta until the results were posted.

arazi the wonder horse who was not…in the derby.

yikes. fell for the he loves CD hype.

Allan

Seems like anything coming out of the Wood Memorial this century.

Worst Kentucky Derby wagers?

Two recent ones where I actually cashed. I bet both Authentic and Medina Spirit because I wanted some reason to be pleased with otherwise distasteful (to me) results.

Mister Frisky, if my memory serves me correctly, he went off at 9-5. I had him at 75-1 betting a future after he won his first US start. It obviously wasn't a bad $100 bet, it was all the excitement and the extreme let down that sucked.

Bloodhorse.com | Release Date: March 28, 2023
Forte Favored in Pool 6 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...y-future-wager


FUTURE WAGER GENERAL RULES:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...%201_Rules.pdf

I didn't put any money into this year's futures pools.

At 5-2 I think Forte has to be up there near the top of the list (at least this year.)


-jp

.

I thought this entire thread was going to be about the 11-1 future odds on Hoosier Philly as the second choice in the February pool.

:ThmbUp:

Yes. Definitely in the discussion.

And parlay that opinion - the 'Preakness Future'? thing, this year, for the same horse.

If I understand what I skimmed, and read on various tweets correctly, he was 4-1!? :D in 'Preakness futures? I mean, maybe it 'sounds' semi fair to a casual fan of Forte or whatever, but a latent payout wager, on a two-race affair, where you don't really beat parlay even if he first Wins the Derby and enters the Preakness in stride as the chalk?

I didn't participate in that pool (now noticing Tapit Trice as pretty much just as awful tepid price 6-1 :confused::lol::lol::lol::lol: ! )

I'm having bonehead moment just getting an understanding around how the odds even make sense. Is the takeout really insane, or just a bad format, etc... "Mage" was 30-1? ... I mean even a laser guided missile like correctly singling Mage... How does that work in a parlay 15-1, and even money and it's still only ~30-1, and doesn't account for whether he misses the race.

Personally, I don't have to look far for 'Worst' knucklehead Derby wagers.

Yes I am impressed about how social media has this freakish talent pool where many horseplayers bat 1.000, and these wonderful 'IQ' discussions go on where everyone in the thread is self-reported 140+, yet I'm delusional enough to make terrible bets all...the...time :D.

From knowing Tapit Trice was extremely likely to be out of the Exacta this year at his 2nd-choice price, and knowing Angel of Empire was highly competitive, that alone is enough puzzle pieces to hold your own, and I still was pretty awful this year, (in addition to the misses on the AoE exactas, +others, also had Two Phils more of a 'B' than an 'A', and somehow my usually solid Florida prep understanding was bad enough to dismiss the obviously somewhat talented Mage with things like a the FOY trip basically not connecting to brain cells)...

or 2022 when I had Oaks / Derby tix w/ Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow, - the later because of belief of a pace impact, yet in spite of what I felt was a fast pace with an underrated leader, I never even considered to use plodders like Barber Road or Rich Strike under a relatively clean and simple Oaks '22.

I stopped betting the Derby about a dozen years ago. I scanned the list of winners from 1980-2010, and I believe I had 3 or 4 of them and none paid a good price.

:ThmbUp:

No matter how good a handicapper is, ... when someone tries to handicap because of the race being an event (as opposed to patiently waiting for a race where you have a edge), the math is going to be a negative value. A losing situation.