How many races/months back to handicap?
 

Last 3 races? Last 6 months?

Current form is crucial, especially the last race. The only reason to go beyond last 2 or 3 last races is if recent races are not representative of horses ability and has shown it can do better in the past and even then, one must look at last race or 2 to see if horse is rounding back to that top form.

Flexibility is the key to winning at the races. Some horses you need to go way back. Others use current form. No cut and dried rules for me.

But my general rule is the last 4.

I break it all the time.

Allan

It's an interesting question. If a horse won a turf sprint six months ago, and then was jumped up in class and switched to dirt routes where he ran poorly, and it is back in a turf sprint today, wouldn't you give him a second look?

On the other hand if a horse has been running the same race for six months without success you don't need to look any farther than his last few.Handicapping has a lot more width and breadth than most people realize. Figuring out what the crowd is missing gives you a good chance of success.

Last Line or move on
 

Im reading the race conditions
And then selecting pace lines.

:puke::puke::puke:

to apply = last few lines

to know the 'story' = at least the 10 on the page if not more.



Don't bet the 'story' unless the odds are very generous, and or other factors are moving in that same direction (lone speed today, you don't like the chalk, etc...)

You should always ask yourself, a) what is the horse capable of? and b) where is the horse at now? c) do you see a forward move coming in its upcoming race?

Question A may mean going much further back than 2-3 races. What if a horse is supposed to run a 6 furlong sprint on a dry track and his last 3 races were turf, slop and synthetic? Obviously those races are limited in what information they can provide moving forward on a dry, real dirt track.

this is a very interesting question that i would have had a much different answer for 25 years ago or more. not that past performances can give you some type of an indication as to what to expect in a horses performances, but the CRW are bisecting and dissecting every facet known to man and they are going to get it right a high percentage of the time.

in order to win at this game you are going to have to figure out how to beat the CRW and gate punchers at their own game. if you don't have a some type of a plan you might as well mail the money in and not even bother to watch races. i don't think that reading past performances can help to solve this matter.

The way I handicap you can go back 9 months if there is a reason too. Can use the first 2 lines for some horses and 9 months for some, just depends on the running lines.

Usually I go back 2-3 races as current form I think is normally most important.

Sometimes though if trainer is trying horse on different conditions for first time in a while then obviously you want to go back and see if/how horse competed at new conditions.

Or in some cases horse may have ran in slop or off turf, bumped hard in the start etc. and so you'd want to go back to further in that case.

I think whatever factors you use to handicap, it's sometimes beneficial to look at a number of facets:

1) Recent Form- last 3 or 4 races if within 2 months.
2) Current Year
3) Lifetime Best
4) Today's Surface
5) Today's Race Conditions
6) Today's Distance

I think they all have credence when it comes to looking for that price but at the same time they can be overkill as well. It's been said a million times that you can always find a reason a horse won after the race is over. That reason will usually fall into one or more of these facets.

Hidden Angles
 

All the way back till you find what your looking for:lol:

I like to look at the last two form cycles but no more than 90 days back, with the last time out being the most important. But if the horse is coming off a long layoff I will go as far back as their first start.

I use Formulator and get 20 races per horse. For a meet like Saratoga, I like to look back to how the horse ran last summer at Saratoga, especially what class the horse ran at, and see what the horse has done since, whether to upgrade or downgrade him, based on the conditions and distance of the current race, and also the horses' current form. Other than Saratoga, I usually go back 6 months and follow the horse's progress.

See above