wisdom of crowds
 

ran across a book i thought i would share. i think it is worth reading as it covers the topic of betting in a closed system and the effect of crowd behavior. i came away from what i read alot wiser, when it comes to wagering in horseracing.

here is the amazon link with an excerpt from the book.


https://www.amazon.com/Wisdom-Crowds.../dp/0385721706

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I think because of smaller field size the crowd identified fave now wins about 37% of the races

it's really an amazing stat

I doubt any capper in the world could match it if he had to make a pick every race just based on the morning lines

agree or disagree________?


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remember the morning line is the opinion of just one person.
in the book the wisdom of the crowds, there is an example of a cattle where the weight of it butchered and quartered was guessed by the crowd. it turned out the average of the total guesses was more accurate than any one in the crowd, which included people that were in the trade of raising and butchering cattle.

The Crowd
 

More than 40 years ago Fabricand in his book proved that up to 8-1 the crowd was accurate in predicting the chances of a horse. At higher odds they progressively overestimated their chance. A horse at 50-1 only won 1 out of 80 races.