Arkansas Derby - Gr1
 

Clearly the more attractive Derby prep this weekend, from a betting standpoint.

The two former Baffert runners (Harlocap & Reincarnate) look like the pacesetters, and may hook up in a duel. The Hartman runner could also contribute to the pace.
Reincarnate had a well publicized tough trip in the Rebel. Got cut off at the break and impeded in the lane, but still kept running.
Harlocap was near the very fast pace in the Risen Star, took the lead and faltered in a race that came apart late.

The winner of the Risen Star, Angel Of Empire, and FOY runner up Rocket Can will be among the top choices along with the above two runners.

So where's the value?
Gulp, I'm having a long look at the rail runner, Bourbon Bash, for Lukas.
He also had a tough trip in the Rebel, getting carried out very wide into the clubhouse turn. Made a decent middle move into contention while a bit wide on the far turn, but couldn't go with the others. In his previous race he was also a bit wide, hit the front, but couldn't contain the winner. Gets a major jock upgrade to Reylu, and a virtual guaranteed better trip from the rail, and a solid pace to run at.
Knocks are that a few that beat him in the Rebel are back, and I'm not sure he can improve enough to turn the tables. Also, he was easily beaten by Gun Pilot two back, who was pretty much a no show in the Rebel.
Maybe he gets a piece at a price...? Win is unlikely though.
Someone please talk me out of this :)

Who ya got?

imo value will be everywhere except for reincarnate and the cox horse. rounding out the trifecta of favs has to include the rocket. ............. who could easily win at 4-1

too bad some of the bottom 5 in this race couldn't be in the fla derby.

:1: Bourbon Bash - D. Lukas
:2: Interlock Empire - K. McPeek
:3: Harlocap - S. Asmussen
:4: Two Eagles River - C. Hartman
:5: Airtime - R. Diodoro
:6: Angel Of Empire - B. Cox
:7: Rocket Can - W. Mott
:8: Reincarnate - T. Yakteen
:9: King Russell - R. Moquett
:10: Red Route One - S. Asmussen
:11: Kolomio - J. Desormeaux


This is a much more classy field (on paper) than what's running at Gulfstream. The track should be dry after some potential Friday rain by Saturday afternoon. Asmussen, Baffert, and Pletcher have score their share of wins in this event. No Pletcher, no Baffert (but have the :3: and:8: transfers). Asmussen's entrants nothing to sneeze at.

None of these have me reaching for my wallet at the window. :4: ran a bang-up OC last out over this surface. A repeat of that would but him in the picture at a decent price. :6: Gets Prat who's been dangerous. Knocked off the Jeff Ruby winner last out. The :7: was beat by Forte last out. Maybe four lengths behind Forte is enough to win here. The :8: seems to have a similar look but his Rebel was underwhelming. :10: got sloppy seconds the last two and should get a more dry run this time. Looks like the type to benefit with extra distance. TGaff is becoming a premier pilot as well.

Leaning toward the :7: as my primary choice. Probably also include the :6: and :10: on top some plays. Probably include the Lukas :1:, the :4: , and :8: in a dime super play. Can make a case for the :2: to sneak on the bottom for a price boost should some speed melt.

9/11 seems like ez tosses,..2 isn't fast enough...i think the 5 will bounce, but can't be ruled out when trying to cap the best horse from the 5-10th best horses. he just seems slow.

don't know what to do with the 3. i would like to use but that last race wasn't very good. if he could somehow bounce back he could easily be part of this.

i'm sure many could land on the #4 here. i guess you could either stab with the 1 or 3 as well. i have mixed feelings with the 1. and two eagles already beat him.

still, i don't know if you could get 2 of the 4 figure horses OTB. which is what you're essentially trying to do by playing the 1/3/4 as a longshot. trying to get the 5-10th best horse and finding solid reasons to finish 2/3rd never seems to work out.

Asmussen slapping blinkers on a deep closer in an apparent effort to ensure the horse doesn't finish strongly.

I suppose waiting til race day and simply adding equipment is more convenient then taking the time to put speed into the horse during his morning training or maybe trying to book the same jockey for all his races rather than the musical jockeys the horse has been exposed to since the fall?

Also, begs the question why he bothered to enter the speedy but unseasoned Harlocap in there? Would have made sense to force a solid pace for the late runner, but if you want the late runner to lay closer how's that going to help?

Supertrainer mentality. Simply throw the quasi-unlimited resources against the wall and see what sticks. Brad Cox getting a sense of that too this season. Didn't he have about 12 horses on the Derby trail a few weeks ago?

At least Baffert, with his 16 nominations to a single race at Santa Anita back in February and nothing to show for it now has a built-in excuse...

Speaking of Baffert, Cave Rock didn't enter the Hot Springs undercard race and hasn't worked in nearly 2 weeks after getting his feet held to the fire with a ridiculously aggressive recent worktab. Won't expect him in the Preakness now.

At this point I just hope he doesn't emulate Corniche's 3yo campaign...

Arkansas Derby first glance
 

I've just glanced at the race. Been doing watch-lists elsewhere...

Going to handicap this, eventually.

I have a couple vague opinions, but I'm not married to them. I don't want to be biased and see what I think I see, unless it's true.

:8: REINCARNATE ml 5/2 -
Son of a witch, my middle name is "Merlin", but I don't happen to believe in Reincarnate. The Sham was a sham. Rebel Stakes; favorable race flow.
I have yet to do my due diligence and decide what I can clearly see, and what I can't see, and what is in the twilight gray zone of partial insight. Until then, it's just a first impression.

:4: TWO EAGLES RIVER ml 10/1 - Again I have yet to do my due diligence. At first glance, Two Eagles River has a touch of brilliance. Forget speed figures for a minute, I saw what I saw. May be situation of lower figs or a step up in class of an otherwise good horse. I catch some of these on visual appraisal, but another important model is when it is a supertrainer situation.
Trained by Chris hard-hitter Hartman, a continued improvement including speed figures seems to be on the table.
If I determine that what I think I saw at a glance is actually the truth, then he becomes a valuable key horse.

Not married to either opinion. Don't want to be biased. Put in the work and consider what is clearly true from the clearly unknown, as well as the twilight zone, partially known, gray area.

Good luck to all and enjoy the handicapping and event. I'll post some deeper impressions.

JMK

one thing about this race is that 2/4 of the favs are closers. and AOE hasn't gotten the backing like a runner he's become. i'm not saying this as a positive. i'm saying it because he seems a little slow and it's been reflected at the window. but this race he's likely to take a shit ton more.

it also seems foolish to put blinkers on RRO. what exactly are they trying to accomplish here. seems like it could be more of a hinderance and likely be in the same spot as he would of been, but without his late kick.

i have to believe the winner of this race is likely going to be the 7 or 8.

so if he two closers are compromised or not hat fast this could open the door for a semi longshot/longshot to hit the ticket

bad memory here, so this is an honest question - Do you remember any good Asmussen horses who wore blinkers?

:4: is the value horse IMHO. Curious to see how the early pace unfolds.

Asmussen 1st time blinkers on in stakes past 5 years - 28-2-3-1
(Private Creed, Powerful)

Wearing blinkers in graded stakes past 5 years - 82-6-7-10
(Gunite 2x, Max Player 2x, Jalen Journey, Tenfold)

And for what it's worth if you're thinking Kentucky Derby, not Arkansas as the ultimate target:
Blinkers off in graded stakes: 3-0-0-0

the reason to do this is that you obv want the horse up closer. but the horse has been racing well without them. and it seems when trainers do this it backfires in a situation like this and compromises the horses chance more should they not have done it. i can site no examples other than the countless times you see a poor race and the subsequent the removal of them in the horses next race

Thanks. :ThmbUp: The one I could remember was Creator. More than 5 years ago and also was more of a plodder than a winning type.

I don't go big on stats in these situations (and not a dismissal of these stats, and I appreciate you posting them. There's a lot going on e.g. say perhaps Assmussen slaps blinkers on plodders, and is actually improving their chances by doing so, yet we glance at the stats and think it hurts their chances because we don't factor in that possibility. Or maybe it is hurting their chances. Or maybe we do a really fair job of considering the stats and I'm just wasting calories on typing so many explanations and footnotes that it's turning new fans away from the game! They would come to LOVE horse racing, but Robert Fischer would write these well intentioned but awful posts that only die hard players appreciated but were actually KILLING the game. #2coffee_limit, jace:bang: ) , but in general Steve may be exposing his hand that he believes the horse to be a plodder.
Maybe that's all it means?
RR1 projected about lastomundo, and then Santana jumps over to the 'fun' Assman horse Harlocap (a darth vader Baffert expatriate who plays for the Raiders). Winchell is obviously a prized ownership, and the homebred status is no slight in this operation. Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.


I don't know Red Route One well enough yet to know. The Rebel's race flow was favorable to closerss\7

OAKLAWN PK SAT 4/1 -AK DERBY - R12 - 1&1/8 Mi…….

With the heavy rains expected tonight the track may not be in real fast condition by post time.
There’s enough early speed in this race between the :3:, :4:, and :8: to set it up for something ON or OFF the pace.
The best of those running ON the pace would be the :7: and possibly the :5:(with some improvement).
The best of those running OFF the pace would be the :6: and the :10:.

My final choices will be based on how the betting shapes up.
In the meantime, I’m leaning toward keying both the :6: and :7: with the :10:, :5:, :4:, and :8: for vertical play.

GL
.
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Doubt I'm saying anything ground-breaking here, but the :4::6::7::8::10: look to be the true contenders, and I'd be fairly surprised if they don't make up the Trifecta.

Maybe Ricardo/Asmussen can spring life into the :3: Harlocap who got caught up into the Risen Star early speedfest and make a better showing here? Not buying it.

Of the contenders, I think the :4: Two Eagles River gets a bit of a tactical advantage with the post, and his penchant for being closer to the front. His pace figs aren't all that brilliant though for a horse stretching out and going up in class. And for one that started out at 5F, the 9F distance has to be a serious question. His overall figs are supposedly as good as any, and feels like a 'wise guy' horse.

:6: Angle of Empire got pretty much a dream trip in the Risen Star, and I still think was lucky to win. He could have easily finished 3rd or even 4th. Not completely sold yet, but hard to argue with the barn and rider, and feels like a must include in EXs.

:7: Rocket Can, how can you doubt Mott dragging him from Florida here after he looked like a winner in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, only to see Forte pass him with rather ease in his first race of the year. His last 4 are as strong as any in the field, and he is as tactical as any horse in here. May well be the pick.

:8: Reincarnate had a troubled trip in the Rebel. How troubled? It was still good to see a normal front-runner pass horses. Of the horses out of the Rebel, this was the one I wanted going forward. Johnny V comes back, and with a better break, he should be in the thick of it early. Feels like he has the pedigree and foundation to be the one to beat.

:10: Red Route One is putting blinkers on like many have already stated. And as many others have stated, not sure I'm a fan. His best finishes have been from downtown. Of the 5, this is going to be flat kick.

:6::7::8::10: are the four favorites but to me there appears to me a talent gap between them. I simply do not like the :6: or :10: at all. :7:is the improving horse and most likely winner. The two longshots are the :3: and :4: Not a lot to like in the :1::2::5::9::11: The :1: has no closing kick and he won't be near the lead. The:5: best race was in the mud.

My pick is the :7: over the :4::8: with the :3: the next one.