The Travers Stakes ( Grade I ) 8/26/2023
 

what do you guys think?

Travers Probables (with Jon White ML)

Forte (Pletcher) 8-5
Mage (Delgado) 4-1 ( Luis Saez )
Arcangelo (Antonucci) 4-1 ( Javier Castellano )
? ̶A̶n̶g̶e̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶E̶m̶p̶i̶r̶e̶ (Cox) 6-1 ( seeing some chat that he's shelved )
National Treasure (Baffert) 10-1
Tapit Trice (Pletcher) 15-1
Scotland (Mott) 15-1
Disarm (Asmussen) 15-1
Reincarnate (Baffert) 20-1
Skinner (Shirreffs) 20-1
Il Miracolo (Sano) 50-1
/ₛₒᵤᵣ��ₑ ��ᵣₑ��ᵢₜ; Sₜₑᵥₑ Bᵧₖ / DₑᵣbTₜᵣₐᵢₗ
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/ supposedly additional 'possibles' include Paddington ( Linda Rice ) & Drake's Passage ( Cristophe Clement ) ?? /ₛₒᵤᵣ��ₑ ��ᵣₑ��ᵢₜ; HorseracingNation
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Forte (pictured w/ owner Mike Repole)
https://cdn-images.bloodhorse.com/i/...f1b67d5da7.jpg


"Adversity builds Greatness" - Mike Repole

I think Skinner is now staying out West.

looks like a good race. curious to see how Tapit Trice will do.

I don't see why people still like this horse, so he'll probably win by 3 at 2-1.

You can get 5:2 from me if you want to hedge:-)

I dont get it either but he is the type of horse to love, always gets bet, rarely wins. Accounts for the takeout.

Is Monmouth still considered a conveyor belt for speed? If so, I have no idea why Pletcher would run such a plodder in the Haskell other than to keep him away from his main client's horse in Forte.

I would draw a line through the Haskell, although that doesn't particularly make the horse any more appealing I suppose...

Running him there was a bit puzzling, but he had every chance with a wicked speed duel up front and came up totally empty.

Tapit Trice being a significant underlay/'toss' from Win & Ex in the Kentucky Derby was about the only good card I had.


So there are no Brad Cox or Chad Brown entries?
I am not knowledgeable about how liquid the probables or entries are for this race.

Studying a few of these horses individually at this point.

Have yet to think about the Travers as macro complete race with Pace Projection.

Happened to look at some of the workouts. National Treasure certainly isn't the smoothest mover or a freakish 'generational talent' or anything, but I noted how he is working like some of Baffert's list of past big performers. Thinking in terms of style, running through the finish line with a solid gallop-out. Nothing jaw-dropping, but that was one small pattern thing that you look for with Bob Baffert.

Reincarnate is working fine. He is not showing me that pattern like National Treasure. Mildly impressive in terms of going at a decent pace w/out urging. Like most of this field he can maintain a position and hit the board if he were to have good racing luck.

After that dismal last effort I was expecting an announcement that he had a minor injury, some kind minor health issue, or that Pletcher was going to give him a freshening. Pletcher is too smart to run him back unless he's OK and doing well. I think he'll run better in the Travers. He just hasn't given any indication he's as good as the best 3yos when they are at 100%.

Thanks, I forgot he had a nice setup despite the track historically working against him.

Maybe Pletcher should slap the blinkers on this one since he & Asmussen seemed to have forgotten how to train at the individual level & resort to such mindless tactics with all their 3yos to "buy a couple of lengths" or whatever they think that blinkers impart to a horse that already has half a dozen starts under its belt.

To be fair, blinkers did work for Forte. But obviously they don't work much more often.

I'm not convinced they helped him any. Pletcher put them on reportedly because he was "losing interest" on the turns. Well, he lost ground on the turn in the Jim Dandy, too.

He also didn't do anything he didn't do in the Belmont. Namely finishing in front of Angel of Empire (a horse whose running style has been ruined by the dumb addition of blinkers) and Hit Show.

Also didn't show any new dimension style wise & he struggled to win the race.

The speed figure for the Jim Dandy says otherwise (maybe the slop moved everyone up), but visually the horse has been on a decline in his last 3 starts.

well i didn't say i liked the horse or that he would win but that i'm curious to see how he runs. i don't think it's crazy to think that he could fire a big shot and win. but ultimately i think it comes down to Arcangelo and Forte.

the August 10 work with Forte (outside) and Tapit Trice in company, was mildly interesting.

Had the appearance of Irad attempting to have Forte alternating between relaxed cruising and moderate sharpening the response and horse/rider communication a few times during the work.

Both horses officially credited with the same time of 4f in 48.33.

Forte worked outside and I watched a nearly two minute clip.
Forte also ended up galloping ahead at the end, extending by three lengths towards the very end of the video.