Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!

He finished last at 15-1

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Mid-pack
Key Races: *747, *763, *767, *807, 15
Notes for the day: Big day for bug boy Poon with 4 wins, not so much for Moreria who is held scoreless.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #3 London City – Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the runner (eventual winner) under him came off the rail looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short to the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 3 #8 Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Race 6 #9 Magnetism – Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Good Companion – Had to really dig down to get up with a weight break from the hot apprentice jock while beating a very average Class 4 field in an average time, has to move up now to Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (029): 98#
2nd (030): 96
3rd (031): +93
4th (032): 99
5th (033): -98
6th (034): -100
7th (035): 100
8th (036): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I. Hong Kong will be racing Saturday this week instead of their normal Sunday race card.

Hong Kongfor September 15th at Sha Tin. Fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 92 Degrees partly clouds. Wind: WNW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170916_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 3 Good Method (3-1) Has only 1 win out of 40 lifetime races, has a tendency to run second and third.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1) Race 15 the third and fourth place runners have come back and won.
Race 2 London Master (13-1) Comes out of the same race as #4 Fish N’ Chips.
Race 4 4 Foxbat (7-1) Race *773 The third and seventh place won next out.
Race 6 4 Winaswewish (49-1) Also comes out of race 15.
Race 8 1 Turf Sprint (5-1) Race *807 The third and sixth place runners won while the winner came back and ran second next time out.



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1)
Race 4 2 Ambitious Speedy (8-1)
Race 5 7 Good Fit (8-1)
Race 6 5 The Full Bloom (17-1)
Race 9 9 Master Viking (15-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 1 Best Tango (12-1) Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 5 8 Sure Peace (8-1) Broke a length slow the was asked but Teetan had no response, moved to the three path on the backside while racing in the back of the field moved out to the 6 path entering the stretch did finish well but never a challenge for the easy winner.

Race 8 11 Travel Emperor (6-1) Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 10 6 Winston’s Lad (7-1) Broke well but had to be taken up soon after, moved to three wide entering the stretch had to keep moving further outside for room to run started really getting at it the last 150 metres and just missed out by a length… Should like the added distance here and the draw closer to the rail.

Key Play:
Race 9 11 Top Beautiful (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 7 Empire Star (22-1)
Race 9 6 Ace King (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Here is tonight's analysis of Race 1 from Sha Tin.

Race 1 is a 1200M Class 4. The field looks top heavy, but may have a vulnerable favorite and perhaps some live longshots to spice up the exotics.

#1 Mordicus brings a lot of speed to the table, and earned the top speed figure in the field in the Sha Tin finale over the same class and distance. He was overhauled in that one, finishing 6th, but was only beaten less than 3 lengths, in a race in which the winner was 2 lengths clear. Throw out the race 2 back, when he was taken out of his game with a slow break. As the high weight once again, he has a positive “bet-on” angle, switching from Kei Chiong to Zac Purton, who is overdue to get going. Solid today, and could be tough to catch in the opener as the 2nd choice.

#2 None Other has some similar form to Mordicus. While Mordicus probably is faster from the gate, None Other also has a the speed to be competitive early, and from the 1 hole is liable to gun for it early. He was 2nd last out, but earned a much slower speed figure than Mordicus (72 vs. 88), and the last several figures of last season were all below par for the level. That said, he gets the biggest jockey change in the business, going from the low percentage Jack Wong to the dominant Joao Moreira. Dangerous, but overbet as the chalk.

#3 My Honey, #4 The Legend, and #5 Lightning Missile have all been non-competitive while ice cold on the board in their 1st/2nd starts, and none look competitive today.

#6 Money Winner is worth a look underneath at a big price in this spot. While the form isn’t much on the surface, he earned respectable speed figures in his first two starts (77 and 79), before encountering significant trouble last out. The trainer Tsui is off to a blistering start, although Douglas Whyte, a former champion rider in Hong Kong is still seeking his first winner. He’ll be flying late, and shouldn’t be written off.

#7 Indigenous Star is another long one in here who is at least a little bit interesting underneath. He figures to picking up some pieces late, and the relatively lightly raced 4 year old had improving form at the end of last season, finishing up with a sub 23 second final quarter to finish 4th last out. Gets in at 116 pounds with Leung up, and is a tad interesting.

#8 Joyful Forever would be a surprise in here, as he hasn’t made much of an impression in 4 lifetime starts. Appears destined for Class 5.

#9 Rewarding Flyer is a contender for Moore and Berry. A 2-time winner last season, he took a Class 5 wire-to-wire 3 back, and then had a nice finish on opening day at Sha Tin this season to finish 2nd. If he is able to build on that performance at all (and avoid a wide trip), he may be well positioned to run down the #1 and #2 in the lane. Value at 3rd choice.

# 10 Victor Emperor is at least a little interesting here, as he makes his 2nd start off the long layoff. In the spring he ran a few races that would be good enough to take this, including a Class 5 score. He was injured in April after taking a ton of money, and then jogged behind the field in the comebacker on opening day. He’ll be a big price, and if he can regain his fitness, isn’t impossible.

My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7

No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?

No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).

wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night

The magic tea leaves know...

It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.

is is possible to bet directly into their pools using a foreign website so we can get in on their monster pools? like the triple trio or the six up or the Hong Kong jockey clubs site

?
 

Since it sounds as though you're using a tote-watching system, I don't understand why you're citing Benter's method as proof that yours works. This isn't what he was doing at all. You make it sound as though he wasn't using a 'fundamental model', as he describes it (or, making your own line, as the average handicapper would describe it) because it would be too difficult. In fact, this is exactly what he did. And his 'fundamental model' was more powerful than the 'public model' -- it made a small profit. But it became much more powerful after he combined it with the 'public model' -- aka 'the odds' -- in the areas where the 'public model' was stronger. This is what you summarize in the last two sentences of your post. But, he wasn't doing this on a race-by-race basis, as you imply -- this model-combination was the result of an analysis of thousands of races. So, as with anyone who makes a line, he knew the odds he (or really his runners) was looking for before the race -- he wasn't watching tote movement.

Also, re tote action itself -- I've never seen a serious study that didn't describe pre-race price movement as random. And in this age of improved computer power, it certainly is one of the easiest things to track.

Cheers,

lansdale

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *771 (3 winners and a second), 009

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 (040) :12: Laughing Lord: Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 10 (046) :14: Such A Happiness: Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (041): :7: Good Fit: Was a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 2 (044) :2: Marvel Tribe: Was all out in the stretch while defeating a rival who never got back to his proper lead step, picked up 6 points so he’ll be forced up to Class 4 next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (037): 98
2nd (038): 92
3rd (039): +94
4th (040): +92
5th (041): -94
6th (042): -93
7th (043): 109 ?
8th (044): 102
9th (045): 100
10th (046): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongfor September 20th at Happy Valley. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees, Mostly cloudy this evening. Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 :3: Sweet Bean (3-1) Draws a bad post and his last few races haven’t been very much to brag about, if it wasn’t for Moreira he would be 20-1 and not the chalk.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *746 (3rd, 6th, 8th and 10th have won their next races):
Race 4 :6: King Winsa (6-1) and :11: Scarborough Fair (31-1), Race 6 :5: Casa Master (13-1).

Race *747 (5th and 7th won while 3rd ran second):
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Race 015 (3rd, 4th and 10th won next out):
Race 1 :11: Forever Fun (74-1), Race 5 :2: Phantom Falcon (7-2) and :4: Formula Galore (8-1).



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 :7: King of Mongolia (17-1)
Race 4 :7: Smart Union (3-1)
Race 6 :4: Wah May Baby (10-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :4: Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Key Play:
Race 7 :1: Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Goal For Gold (12-1)
Race 3 :9: Loyal Craftsman (14-1)
Race 7 :11: Charity Glory (10-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 009

Notes for the day: Tracked started out very fast for the first 5 races with a clunker in there for the fourth, number came back everyone running around 8 points slow, the fig was adjusted +5 after closer inspection. Track slowed down compared to the earlier races but still a little faster than par. The 3rd race was a grade lower than normal even for a Class 5 event

Horse to watch for list:

Race 050 #7 Smart Union: Was bet down to 7-2 after being away since May, broke well and was taken back looking for room to get near the rail but was unable to being forced out 3 wide in the first turn. Still being taken further back looking for room entering the backside, while this was going on the eventual winner was galloping along on an easy lead setting a very leisurely pace, moved to the three path on the turn for home and carried further out entering the stretch, started making up ground while racing all over the track, just missed out by less than an length.

Race 052 #8 Speedy Wally: Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 053 #1 Fantastic Feeling: Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire. Didn’t pick up any rating points so will be able to stay in Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 048 #4 Sharp Sailor: Had to the move to the 5 path in the turn and Nash had to get to his bottom in the stretch, picks up 7 points so will most likely be carrying 132 pounds in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (047): +98
2nd (048): 102
3rd (049): +88
4th (050): -93#
5th (051): 96
6th (052): 95
7th (053): 102
8th (054): 103


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Thanks

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: E 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 :4: Smiling Glory (4-1) Draws the 11 hole and last couple races on the dirt have nothing to write home about. Even with the Brazilian on don’t care too much for horses that don’t like to win

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *720: The 2nd and 9th won next out while the winner and 10th place runners ran second:
Race 7 :5: Malmsteen (29-1)

Race *773: 3rd and 7th came back and won:
Race 6 :5: Regency Darling (22-1)

Race 009: the 3rd and 5th won with the 4th place finisher came in 2nd in his next race:
Race 7 :9: Easy Touch (34-1)
Race 9 :3: Chung Wah Spirit (5-1)
Race 9 :10: Diamond King (25-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Industrialist Way (3-1)
Race 7 :7: Right Call (17-1)
Race 10 :2: Hang’s Decision (13-1)
Race 10 :4: Soalr Hei Hei (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 :11: Multigogo (4-1) Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 10 :12: Citron Spirit (8-1) Broke extremely badly in a Class 3 event spotting the field at least 5 lengths till he straightened up, saved ground on the turn moved to the four path in the stretch and closed well but never able to get to the easy winner, galloped out well.

Key Play:
Race 9 :11: Household King (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 :2: Great Toplight (11-1)
Race 4 :12: Snowhooves (10-1)
Race 5 :11: Unique Joyful (24-1)
Race 7 :1: Lucky Guy (16-1)
Race 9 :5: Regency Bo Bo (10-1)
Race 10 :4: Solar Hei Hei (13-1)

Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Same for me now as well, at least at Twinspires and Xpressbet. Sometime in the last year or so, at least one of them or TVG also carried a double wager, but apparently no longer.

No idea why they stopped carrying doubles. Makes no sense

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 24, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Closers
Key Races: none

Notes for the day: Field and final time for Race 6 (060) came back very weak, the three first timers in Hong Kong from Race 7 (061) didn’t show as much as they were talked up to be. Race 8 (062) came back very fast for a Class 3 event on the dirt.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 058 #7 Yourthewonforme: Leaped out of the gate costing him at least a couple lengths of running position, but worse all was stuck in the rear of a full field. Raced on the rail full of run in the fourth flight, but was all caught up in the wash in the stretch never being able to properly extend his legs.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 (058) #8 Winning Vibe: Nash had to get to his bottom after having break from the 12 gate in a very slow final time for a Class 5 event.

Race 8 (062) #1 Winning Vangough: Was allowed to set a leisurely pace, looked a winner half-way thru the stretch but was run down near the wire, he never got to his proper lead foot and was a very quick pull up after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (055): -95
2nd (056): 92
3rd (057): 98
4th (058): 89
5th (059): 100
6th (060): 90
7th (061): 101
8th (062): 105
9th (063): +102
10th (064): -99?

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 82 degrees with clear skies. Wind: none

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good to Firm

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170927_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race :7: Haymaker (7-2): Is 1 for 27 lifetime and has the wrong running style for the ‘C+3’ course at Happy Valley.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (8th, 12th and 13th place runners won next out with the 6th place finisher ran second):
Race 4 :9: Happy Friendship (21-1)
Race 005 (9th and 6th place finishers won):
Race 2 :6: Gold Talent (10-1)
Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th have won with the 4th and 7th finished second):
Race 8 :6: So Fast (15-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) their speed figure on the off track :
Race 3 :5: The Full Bloom (9-1) 100
Race 3 :6: Wah May Baby (11-1) 101
Race 7 :1: Goodheart Success (34-1) 103
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (9-1) 102
Race 8 :11: Master Viking (19-1) N/A

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 :9: Fine With Me (7-1) Race *762
Race 4 :1: Victory Follow Me (9-1) Race *782


Key Play:
Race 8 :8: Best Step (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :2: Generous Bobo (11-1)
Race 5 :2: Dr Race (10-1)
Race 5 :10: Junzi (12-1)
Race 7 :6: Green Energy (10-1)
Race 8 :7: Happy Bao Bei (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Thanks

R4:
Happy trails to woodbine key horse #9 Happy Friendship at 45-1

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *792, 029

Notes for the day: Race 2 (066) Even for a Class 5 race it looks to be a level below par, as does race 4 (068). Very impressive win by Starlight in race and Race 7 (071) looks like it has a possibility of becoming a key race very soon.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (066) #2 Show Mission: Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff. Hopefully, he draws another weak field and keeps Moreira for the mount.

Race 4 (068) #1 Victory Follow Me: Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but had to jostle up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward. Doesn’t pick up any rating points so will be allowed to run again in Class 5.

Race 6 (070) #11 Starlight: Is really in form at the moment, got a PERFECT trip in here with 2 dueling on the lead with 2 more in front of him and Starlight running along with no company around him. Drew to the leaders entering the stretch and drew away with all the ease in the world with Purton never even hitting him with the stick. Picks up 9 rating points which will keep him in Class 3 race again.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 8 #8 Best Step: Got lucky and drew the rail in his first start since June, broke well which sometimes can be challenging for him. Dueled on the rail, then had to really dig down to hold on in the stretch with Purton hitting him 18 times. The two he was fighting with both galloped out past him after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (065): +98
2nd (066): -90
3rd (067): -94
4th (068): 93
5th (069): 93
6th (070): +101
7th (071): 105
8th (072): +101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 1st, Ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 degrees with 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms. Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 12.45am ET, 9.45pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good to Yielding

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171001_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 9 :12: Relentless Me (3-1) Drew the 10 hole in a tough Class 3 race, there are others in here that have run must faster than him and the race he won last out came back very slow for even a Class 4 race. 3-1 no thanks.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *773 (3rd and 7th place runners won next out):
Race 1 :8: Flying Noble (2-1)
Race *666 (5th and 9th won while the 2nd place finisher ran second again):
Race 1 :9: Grade One (6-1)
Race *790 (2nd and 7th won):
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (16-1)
Race 029 (winner and runner up have already came back and won while the 5th place finisher ran second):
Race 1 :7: Paddington (18-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding) with their speed figure on the off track :
Race 2 :7: Ho Ho Feel (6-1) 102
Race 4 :1: A Beautiful (9-5) 99
Race 6 :8: Starship (6-1) 93
Race 7 :6: Dashing Fellow (29-1) 105
Race 8 :4: Seasons Bloom (2-1) 105
Race 9 :1: Calculation (15-1) 100
Race 10 :2: Shamal (12-1) 104
Race 10 :10: Jumbo Luck (8-1) 107

Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 :4: Gorgeous King (7-2) – Raced 2 wide on the turn while running very comfortable, moved to the 6 path in the stretch and was making a move to the front when was checked up at the 200 metre mark, regathered himself and finished well.

Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1) – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start moved to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire.

Race 9 :7: Daring Fit (8-1) – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing near the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1) Race *757
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1) Race *742

Key Plays:
Race 2 :5: Gorgeous Again (3-1)
Race 9 :7: Darling Fit (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :3: None Other (17-1)
Race 2 :1: Jolly Gene (14-1)
Race 4 :9: Eastern Prowess (17-1)
Race 8 :6: Winner’s Way (10-1)
Race 10 :3: House Of Fun (15-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

good call there with dashing fellow. it seemed to be raining pretty hard?

I was looking at the results at DRF for Sha Tin and they had a pic6 result that paid $264,000. Can you bet the pic6 through their site?

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 1, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *756, *757, *801, 010, 023 and 027

Notes for the day:
Track started fast until the rains came, then it went very slow and then gradually got a little quicker as the day went on. Race 4 (076) came back a little slow and for a Class 4 race and a little weak for Sha Tin. The first GIII (079) was won by a runner who looks to prefer the softer going, a throw out for most of the classier runners in there. Nice race for the top 2 finishers in the last (082).

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (074) #5 Gorgeous Again: Was on the watch list from his last race, broke well and was in a good position on the backside and the turn while saving ground on the rail. When straightened up for the run home the good position turned into a detriment being stuck behind a wall of three, when he moved closer to the rail the one directly in front him also drifted in, while this was going on the eventual winner was making his winning move. Purton wrapped up on him after he realized it was a done deal.

Race 3 (075) #2 Star Of Patch: Had been away since last January, was able to get the services of Purton and was bet down to 5-2, raced at the tail of the field 2 wide in the turn chasing a very slow early pace. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch full of run and looked to be a winner at the 200 metre mark, but was probably just a little short after the lengthy rest, just being outrun near the wire.

Race 6 (078) #14 Call Me Awesome: In his second race at Class 3 drew in with the very light weight, leaped out of the gate costing a length but more importantly his preferred running position on the front. Became rank on the backstretch at the 900 metre mark, and again in the turn when looking for running room, when in the stretch had to constantly keep moving wider and wider for a lane all while really picking up his feet. Closed to within 2 lengths of the winner at the wire in a quick race for that class. Hopefully, he will pop up back at his preferred Happy Valley.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (077) Win For Charity: Sat right off a quick pace set while the rain was really coming down, was able to scoot thru on the rail and out finished the favourite to the wire with a 12 pound allowance that was gaining on him nearing the line and out galloped him easily after the wire.

Race 6 (079) Dashing Fellow: Sat in a perfect striking position with some nice horses coming off of lengthy rest fighting it out on the front end, moved to the outside and picked up the pieces late. Is 2 for 2 now on the off tracks, going to play against him next out as long as it doesn’t come up wet.

Speed Figures:
1st (073): 96
2nd (074): 100
3rd (075): -97
4th (076): -95
5th (077): +95
6th (078): 102
7th (079): 109
8th (080): 110
9th (081): 98
10th (082): 106

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kong for at Happy Valley. Tenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 degrees with Partly Cloudy Wind: ENE mph. 10 to 15

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171005_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2): Has been away since May when he sustained a left radius stress fracture, even though he’s coming out of a key race will try and beat him in here.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race 029: (The first two runners won next out with the 5th place finisher ran second)
Race 2 :3: Never Better (6-1)

Race *764: (the 3rd and 4th place finishers won)
Race 4 :4: Planet Star (9-1)

Race *747: (5th and 7th win while the 3rd place was a runner up)
Race 5 :8: Navas (17-1)

Race *705: (3rd and 6th won with the 2nd and 8th finished second)
Race 7 :8: Keep Moving (6-1)

Race *670 (three horses won next out: the 2nd, 4th and 6th)
Race 8 :6: Nassa (7-2)

Race *767 (The winner and 6th won with the 9th running a good second)
Race 8 :10: Chater Legend (14-1)
Race 8 :12: Super Chic (10-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :1: Unique Happiest (7-1)
Race 3 :3: Happy And Healthy (12-1)
Race 5 :4: Back In Black (9-1)
Race 7 :7: Mr Right (10-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :1: Victory Follow Me (5-1): Was very unlucky at the computer draw getting the 11 post with the short run to the first turn. Leaped out of the gate costing him a couple lengths, Purton took full advantage of a bad situation and took him straight to the rail while taking a running position in the rear of the field. Then had to take up slightly in the turn, then was seriously checked entering the backstretch. Moved out to the 5 path in the stretch looking for room but was jostled up slightly when a tiring runner got into his path, closed well afterward.

Race :2: London City (14-1): Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the winner under him came off the rail, he looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short while the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 6 :12: The Sylph (5-1): Bet down as the favourite with Moreira up, was steadied entering the stretch closed well beaten by Bo Duke who had a perfect trip sitting right behind a lone speed quitter. Will most likely lose Moreira for his next out considering he’s gone up 2 points in the ratings, which will put him in Class 3. Praying for a good draw in the Class 3 race.

Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1): Leaped out of the gate then settled on the rail in the first turn racing mid-pack, moved into contention but was herded down on the rail then moved out to the 3 path but was never able to find any room to run. Moreira wrapped up on him in the last 50 metres while still only finishing less than 2 lengths back.


Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :3: Doyeni (9-1) Race *787

Key Play:
Race 8 :5: Dinozzo (9-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :4: Gold Velvet (16-1)
Race 2 :2: London City (11-1)
Race 3 :9: King Winsa (14-1)
Race 5 :3: General Iron (14-1)
Race 6 :2: Thunder Stomp (11-1)
Race 7 :10: Racing Mate (14-1)
Race 8 :2: Packing Dragon (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 5, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: 031 and 038

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 (090) #6 Nassa: Had been away since last May when he was forced off the track with a stress fracture, picked up the services of Moreira and was bet down to 3-1. Broke well but was a little ramped up at first with Moreira trying to getting him to relax, was able to save ground in the first turns. Moved to the three path in the turn for home while looking for room, was caught up in the wash entering the stretch, then was bounced around when trying to get to an opening, was forced to check up at the 150 mark when Supreme Profit kept drifting in on him. Moreira wrapped up on him immediately afterwards and galloped out fine past the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (087) #5 Jumbo Happiness: Raced on the best part of the track and was just able to hold off Mr Picasso who had a very tough trip in a slow race for a Class 3 event.

Race 7 (089) #8 Keep Moving: Saved ground on a night that it looked like the best place to be, clipped heals at the top of the lane and was still able to get up for the win, but was all out to hold off a closing E-Super.

Speed Figures:
1st (083): +90
2nd (084): -96
3rd (085): 96
4th (086): 100
5th (087): -95
6th (088): 102
7th (089): 102
8th (090): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Eleventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 88 degrees partly cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171008_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 :1: Real Deal (4-1) Even though he is taking a drop in class he had showed absolutely nothing lately in Class 4, his speed figures are nowhere close to par even for this class, will bet all day long against types like these at 4-1.

Race 8 :3: Fantastic Eight (5-2) Was all out in his last race after getting an easy lead, never got to his proper lead foot in the stretch, and should have company on the front end today.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *670 (2nd, 4th, & 6th won 12th ran second)
Race 6 :1: Beauty Way (12-1)

Race 010 (3rd and 7th won)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)

Race *650 (1st and 7th won with the 6th place runner finished second)
Race 7 :2: Top Ace (6-1)

Race 027 (1st and 3rd won)
Race 8 :8: Mythical Emperor (9-2)

Race *807 (3rd and 6th won, winner ran second)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

Race 009 (2nd, 3rd and 5th won with the 4th and 7th place finishers ran second)
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 :6: Look Eras (6-1)
Race 6 :6: Rattan (5-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :5: Fun Manager (7-2) Race 031
Race 3 :12: Multigood (3-1) Race 001
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1) Race *774
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1) Race *754

Key Play:
Race 10 :13: Fifty Fifty (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 :3: Born To Race (21-1)
Race 5 :8: Sight Seeing (31-1)
Race 7 :9: Sure Peace (13-1)
Race 8 :9: Winston’s Lad (21-1)
Race 10 :8: Big Bang Bong (11-1)

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 8, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Good Rail
Key Races: *780, 005, 010, 027 and 039

Notes for the day: Impressive win by Alcari in the first with Amazing star eating a ton of money for a first time starter, did fall to his knees at the break, should improve off that. Fifty Fifty in the last won while having to wait for room, moved over on a few horses causing Teetan a couple race days, but when he cleared he took off. He picked up 8 points which will keep him in Class 2 carrying around 123 lbs., which should be no problem for him.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 1 (091) #7 Amazing Star: Was bet way down as the prohibitive favourite, fell to both knees at the break but quickly recovered. Went straight to the front controlling the pace with the eventual winner sitting right off his right flank, had no response for Alcari when it counted. Galloped out well.

Race 3 (093) #3 Ambitious Heart: Drew a very bad post in the short run to the turn, settled in the back while going three wide in the turn, became a little rank at the 680 metre mark. Moved to the 5 path entering the stretch, looked the winner at the top of the lane without being asked, when he reached the front Whyte finally asked him but was out finished by a nice first time starter who had a much easier trip. Hopefully he gets a better draw and a better ride next out.

Race 9 (099) #5 Willie Way: His first loss in four races on the dirt, broke a little more than a length behind the field. Raced 2 wide in the back of the field on the backside, was able to get some nice running room on the rail in the second turn, but was totally blocked off when they entered into the stretch, when room became available the winner had shot away from the pack for a nice win, finished out evenly.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 (097) Spicy Kaka: Sat in a perfect spot saving ground on the rail moved to the lead at the top of the stretch passing the tiring duelers. Was hit 15 times all the way down the stretch and just held off a closer for the win in a slow time for the class. Will have to pick up another 5 lbs. in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (091): 97
2nd (092): -91
3rd (093): 96
4th (094): 95
5th (095): 94
6th (096): -99
7th (097): -93
8th (098): 103
9th (099): 103
10th (100): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

my already abysmal hong kong handicapping was particularly embarrassing in this race. i too hated this horse. i think he ran 4th though which far exceeded the odds i made for him. and i won't even say what i had the winner (winner st paul) at. :blush::blush::blush:

it's really embarrassing for a guy who goes to penn national, lol, but i don't think i'm giving near enough emphasis to trainers here. :blush:

this race ran 12-13-4-1 and the top pct trainers were 13-12-2-4.

Hong Kongfor at Happy Valley. Twelfth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 79 degrees, 40% of scattered thunderstorms early. Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171011_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 :11: Confucius Spirit (4-1): Is only 2 for 41 lifetime and 1 for 33 in this class.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 029 (top two finishers won next out and the 5th placed runner ran second)
Race 2 :12: happy Fiery Dragon (19-1)

Race 023 (2nd and 6th won, the winner and third place finishers came back and were runner-ups in their next out)
Race 5 :6: The Jazz (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Double Master (13-1)
Race 2 :1: Bond Elegance (5-1)
Race 3 :12: Trendiful (15-1)
Race 4 :7: King Of Mongolia (10-1)
Race 6 :7: Happy Journey (26-1)
Race 8 :5: Jolly Convergence (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 :4: Show Mission (6-1): Had been away since last March, picked up Moreira for the mount and of course was bet down to 4-1, broke well and was pushed up into good position along the rail, settled in 2 lengths off the front runner who eventually finished fourth beaten by ¾ of a length. Scooted in on the rail entering the stretch and looked like he may pull it off at the 150 metre mark but was just a little short, most likely from the long layoff.

Race 5 :2: Speedy Wally (2-1): Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 6 :8: Magnetism (9-1): Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Past watch list runners:
Race 8 :8: Dollar Reward (10-1) Race 016


Key Play:
Race 7 :6: Premiere (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 :5: Cheerful Boy (12-1)
Race 6 :8: Magnetism (10-1)
Race 7 :8: Mr Genuine (13-1)
Race 8 :12: Good Companion (12-1)

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 11, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: Impressive wins by both Love Chunghwa and Premiere. Race 1, 5 and 8 came back slow, while Race 3 and 7 were way above par. Favourite in Race 6 #1 Chung Wah Spirit was a quick pull up after his race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 (102) #2 Merrygowin: Had been away since May and was bet down as the 5-2 favourite. Drew the outside post, was taken straight to the back after the break, was still 3 wide in the short turn, was taken to the middle of the track entering the stretch, was slightly bumped at the 200 metre mark but finished very well only losing by a length while conceding 24 pounds to the winner who had a much easier trip. Only picked up 1 rating point so will continue in Class 4 for his next race.

Race 4 (104) # 1 Jolly Gene: Was taken back at the start and settled in mid-pack which is usually not where he likes it, after being asked to run on the turn for home had to be taken up at the 250 metre mark when King Of Mongolia was moved out to avoid a tiring Tai Smart, moved to the inside looking for room but again had nowhere to go with Bank Of Red and Rule Thee were drifting in and out. Was wrapped on at the 50 metre mark, galloped out well.

Race 6 (106) # 5 Cheerful Boy: A front running type that leaped out of the gate losing at least 3 lengths to the herd, but more importantly his position as a leader. Entered the first turn climbing, but closed well in the stretch after saving ground and only being given a couple crosses and a few love taps on his right flank. Race came back a little quick for Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (105) # 10 Gentry: Won a very slow Class 4 event at 20-1 while beating Speedy Wally who had a very rough trip and not giving the best ride of Zach Purton’s career.

Speed Figures:
1st (101): 91
2nd (102): 96
3rd (103): 100
4th (104): 102
5th (105): -92
6th (106): 101
7th (107): 107
8th (108): -96

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. October 14th Thirteenth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 83 degrees 50% chance of afternoon showers Wind: N 20 to 30mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171014_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 :10: Furious Pegasus (4-1): Has yet to finish in the money after 21 tries and 6 of them at this the lowest class level in Hong Kong, his rating just keeps dropping and dropping.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *771 (winners: 8th,12th & 13th, second: 6th)
Race 1 :7: Gentlemen (21-1)

Race 060 (winners: 3rd and 10th)
Race 4 :3: Giddy Giddy (15-1), :6: Flying Godspell (10-1), 11:11: Viva Council (4-1)
Race 5 :13: Sweet Home (6-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 :1: Ambitious Speedy (6-1)
Race 2 :5: The Full Bloom (12-1)
Race 3 :1: Industrialist Way (7-1)
Race 6 :2: Solar Hei Hei (12-1)
Race 6 :12: Lucky Girl (24-1)
Race 8 :7: Peace N Prosperity (31-1)
Race 10 :9: A Beautiful (12-1)


Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 :9: Fine With Me (18-1) Race *762
Race 4 :8: Goal For Gold (7-1) Race *762
Race 6 :7: Citron Spirit (6-1) Race *758
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1) Race 009
Race 9 :11: Perpetual Joyance (23-1) Race *768

Key Play:
Race 6 :4: Rocketeer (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 :9: Le Pegase (15-1)
Race 8 :1: Fortune Bo Bo (16-1)
Race 8 :13: Travel Emperor (11-1)
Race 9 :3: King Genki (10-1)
Race 10 :11: Silverfield (12-1)

tonight's guesses:

key(contend)

race 1: :10:
race 2: :12: :4:
race 3: :4::9::10:
race 4: :7::11:
race 5: :2::6:
race 6::7::1:
race 7: :7::1:
race 8: pass
race 9: :7:
race 10: :3::9::8::10:

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Speed on the turf held a little bit better than normal.
Key Races: *684, *755, 022, 038 and 059

Notes for the day: A couple races had to be adjusted in their final figures, one was just off with their past figures and the other being the only 1,000 metre race of the day. Spotlight Dream in the 7th and in the 9th Little Giant were both very impressive in their runs on the dirt. In race 2 The Full Bloom and Let’s Take It Easy were both unlucky being stuck nearest to the rail while being boxed the entire trip in the stretch.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #7 World Record: Had been off since July and drew the 10 hole in his debut for the season. Took a slight jump at the break, was very insignificant due to his usual running position, after-wards settled at the back racing around 8 lengths off the leader while the eventual winner was running all alone on a track that favoured front runners. Was stuck behind a wall at the 400 metre mark, had to be taken up slightly at the 320 mark, finally when room became available he exploded to the wire but the race was already decided by then.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #10 Furious Pegasus: The race set up perfectly for him, had to dig in to get to the wire first, even for a Class 5 race it came back very light.

Race 2 #13 Unique Joyful: Yeung had to get to his bottom to hold off a 26-1 Contribution after racing near the lead in a slow pace on a speed favouring track.

Speed Figures:
1st (109): 95
2nd (110): -92#
3rd (111): 97
4th (112): 97
5th (113): 96
6th (114): 105
7th (115): -99
8th (116): 98#
9th (117): 107
10th (118): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.