Who is shelling all of these 1-9 and 1-5 shots?
 

In the space of ten minutes on a slow day, I saw two horses go off at 1-9 odds and win. Luna Fortis (TAM R3) and Big Bad Zin (HOU R2). That's more 1-9 shots than I can remember in any month ten years ago. I would understand a champion in a low-level stakes or a returning strong horse in an allowance race written for it. But these races were both Maiden 25k claimers and one of the horses was 0 for 14.


According to my database, in 2018 217 entries closed at 1-9 (about a third of those at 1-20) and 1009 more entries at 1-5 (0.2 or 0.3 odds).



I know why the horses are getting shelled: big speed figure gaps to the next horse. What I don't know is who is doing it. Any thoughts?

What's the hit rate and ROI on these huge bet downs....If you don't mind.

Hit rate is okay, ROI isn't much better than the track takeout.



1-9 or 1-20 - 217 plays, 175 won (80.6%) ROI 0.87
1-5 or 3-10 - 1009 plays,, 678 won (67.2%) ROI 0.84
While I'm at it:
2-5 909 plays, 556 won (61.2%) ROI 0.85
3-5 3206 plays, 1624 won (50.7%) ROI 0.83
4-5 3977 plays, 1802 wins (45.3%) ROI 0.84


Each of those includes the odds just below it for tracks that pay to the nickel per dollar (such as Canada or NYRA). Example: the 2-5 shots include horses that paid $2.80 and $2.70. That's how the database sorts the tote odds, and I'd need to extract the prices manually to adjust them.

I suspect connections with the horse, maybe owners?

Thanks Sea Hero....It looks like the whales would need a YUGE rebate to beat the vig, even with filtering…..Maybe some do.

The stats for the 2-5 shots and higher are from the beginning of 2018 until the end of February this year or 14 months. Those for the 1-9 and 1-5 shots are for 2018 itself. I forgot to add the filter for the ones at higher odds. Also, I don't keep all tracks in the database: the bush and fairs tracks aren't in it.

ROI may improve if you filter down to $2.20-min states (IA and WV), but ADWs don't like players that bet into a lot of negative pool situations, as the ADW is burdened with a portion of the minus pool shortfall, I believe. And I guess this thread is focused on win bets, not show, so may not apply.

What's the ROI on playing them to show?

They would need a lot more than that!
The $$ pools are so shallow there that the so-called “Whales” would get beached in a heart-beat.

Race #3 TAMPA BAY DNS – 2/20

Total WPS Pool: $93,922 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $61,722
Trifecta Pool - $38,548
Superfecta Pool - $24,594

Race #2 SAM HOUSTON – 2/20

Total WPS Pool: $44,859 (Combined!)
Exacta Pool - $40,210
Trifecta Pool - $30,823
Superfecta Pool - $24,222

don't know much about it. but with the proliferation of an underground economy and drug money, wouldn't that horse betting markets be an ideal mechanism?

How can it be bridge-jumpers when they would be betting to show rather than to win?

Tampa
 

I watched this race last weekend. He loaded at 1-5 and went to 1-9 when the gate opened. lol,

61K in the win pool. Maybe a late 10,000 would take him 1-5 to 1-9 in a jump?

This is my weed math.

Place and show ROI are a little better than win: 0.88 and 0.89 respectively.

pretty sure most of the overseas rebate shops don't rebate place and show so that's probably why they are betting to win

I know betonline.ag doesn't rebate place and show

Do syndicates even bother with 1-9's?

My first instinct was just some mad bomber throwin down stacks