S&P top?
 

I’ll start. I say we are at a top or at least a short term correction.

S & P off 0.2 % today blamed on Flynn's guilty plea.:confused: I'd hate to see what will happens if a few big companies miss their earnings forecasts.

I agree with you.A lame excuse like that to explain an off-day might be a bad sign.

a lot have people have lost their shirts calling for a top from 15k.

Bond yields are not signaling a recession. I understand the urge to find a reason to hate a market that has gone up for 8 years but I think you’ll see better earnings and possibly even some more p/e expansion over the next 4 quarters.

I’m not a trader but you might see a short term drop when tax reform is signed (selling the news). But otherwise I’ll wait for an inverted yield curve before I get worried. It could come next year if the Fed keeps raising short term rates. But historically the market has run up for quite a while even after the curve inverts.

the yield curve has been flattening, the 30 year is only 40 basis points more than the 10 year now. in the past that has signaled a recession is on the horizon. today i don't know what it means, because there is no such thing as conventional wisdom in the markets now.

On the other hand, E-Trade’s current “Don’t get mad, get even” ads do remind me a little bit too much of their 2000 campaign:


Maybe Tape Reader has a point.

Hi Lambo.

The traditional yield curve has the 3 month, 6 month, 2 year, and 30 year as data points. The difference between the 10 year and the 30 is probably as important as the difference between the 3 month and 6 month. What you want to look at is when an actual short term rate exceeds the yield on an actual long term rate. You don’t want to compare one long term rate with one even longer term rate.

A flattening yield curve doesn’t always signal a recession. Half the time it signals you are coming out of a recession (when it’s flattening out from being inverted).

But thanks for sharing. Always enjoy your input.

I will bump this thread. What say you?

I think we concluding this correction, which began on Monday(?), Tuesday(?) of this week.

Today's down market is the blow-off. You could start buying now.

But what do I know?

If 1/22 was a real top, there really should have been a lot more volume...it was an average volume day at best...tough to believe that was the top that indicated a massive correction is coming.

FWIW, since no one really cares ...

I bought some Apple, Discovery Communications, Viacom, Sinclair Broadcasting, Tegna, and General Electric late this afternoon.

We'll know by Wednesday afternoon if this was a good idea ... :lol:

the precious metals are going for the program as well today.

I thought this was an interesting post, so I went back to market peaks from two past cycles (mid to late March 2000 and early October 2007). Volume did not spike at those junctures. I'm using S&P 500 volume in both instances. Perhaps Nasdaq volume spiked in March 2000. I'll need to check that.

If the long bond moves from roughly 2.8% (currently) to 4%, I'm not sure how that's equity friendly. MV=PQ. The Fed and other central banks have ramped "M" significantly over the past 10 years, and that ramp resulted in almost no inflationary pressures. Why? V (i.e., animal spirits [confidence] were absent). What if V now returns and starts to translate into a higher P (price/inflation). Year-over-year wage growth was 2.9% last month, the highest since 2009. Nominal GDP is arguably running at 5% to 6%. Given those two data points, a 4% long bond doesn't seem crazy to me.

Big bounce Monday?

The market can go down some more and I still won't be blinking an eye...it hasn't even touched the halfway mark of the run-up that started in November of 2016. The S&P has to drop another 160+ points for that to happen...and that would erase only half of what's happened in the last year plus...

So again, this current drop is pretty much nothing...and on zero extra volume to boot...

I fear tomorrow will be another big downward slide:pout::pout::pout:

I haven't had a trade in a week...how does my automated trading strategy seem to miss the juiciest moves? I know the answer to this question...and I'm not complaining since it's been profitable for years now...but I'd love to catch just one of these moves the last few trading days...:lol:

The answer is...for the curious...opening gaps tend to negate any chance of a trade for me, for the most part...that's why...and strong down-trending markets tend to have opening gaps...

Brutal, unrelenting drop these past few days...who saw this coming?

Even I'm starting to believe a little while watching today's action...

Too bad I've been sitting on my hands in cash since last Monday....:pout:

Should be a pretty big volume day today, judging by the futures action....

Down 600+ points on the DOW again...been trading for almost 20 years now, and seems so long since we've seen days like these...:headbanger:

1,000 point drop on the DOW today? Lookin more and more like it...

Holy shit...there is NOBODY on the bid/ask in the S&P futures at the moment...well, virtually nobody

Buyers coming back after it dropped almost 300 points in the last 5 minutes....WOW

Now they're gone again....this thing is going NUTS

This is like the old days baby....god damn I wish I was in this...

BTW, all those debating me that they don't have BOTS that drive the market crazy like they do in horse racing, take a look at today...

Pure speculation, but I believe there was a large incorrect trade placed on the TLT around the time of your comment here -- it freaked people out. Please see one-minute chart of TLT.

VIX at 30+ right now....WOW

Haven't seen a VIX this high since I don't know when...wasn't even this high when the market had that mini-attack back in August '15

Heading back down and sensing a close at the low? What will that do to the open tomorrow...holy smokerinos....

Even worse than I thought.

Closed near the low...and futures went down another 20 points (or close to 200 DOW points) after the close...tomorrow should be pretty interesting as well...

Still 8 minutes of after-the-bell trading to go on the futures before they close for a break

I knew it.....we're all gonna die!!!

We are almost down to 2,600 on the S&P futures....we were at 2,700 about 45 minutes ago...

Same here. I was on the floor in 1987 ... that was scary. This is ... unbelievable.

Futures closed at 2,607.50.

At 4pm they were at 2,650 or so....

Why? The market's had a huge run over the past 15 months. Even with this modest correction, the S&P 500 trades at 17.4x 2018 estimated earnings (using the higher top down #s). If you think rates will stay here for the next few years, I guess that multiple makes sense. If you think rates might move up 100 to 150 bps, the market still seems fully valued. I realize you buy individual names, so none of this may matter to you.

As big as this drop has been the last couple of days...everyone needs to realize just how much this market has gone up...forget about since November 2016...how about the last how many years?

Markets always go down faster than they go up...and the more they go up, the bigger those drops are going to seem...

But in reality...all we did was erase the gains for 2018...that's right...2018...which is barely a month old.

To put this move in perspective...it's still basically nothing.

I'm still pissed after closing my 401k account in 2013 when the Dow was at 13,000 and the "experts" said we were due for a Market collapse.:rant:

They say by percentage , this is the 25th largest drop.

The bid/ask stack was ridiculous for a while. I hadn't logged in since early morning, saw the late PM dump and decided to ride a bounce - not knowing how thin it really was. D'oh! Got in and out of a couple trades for a quick dime, and then watched the plunge continue. Should not have gone into the pool. So much for the machines providing "liquidity". I guess only when they want it.

The only other day I've seen like this since 2008 was when Brexit passed, and ThinkorSwim jammed up tight.

S&P futures plunged to 2595.75 coming out of lock up, and now are around 2620 when trading resumes in 20 mins, which is right around the little dip from early December. Not sure where it will be tomorrow morning, but I suspect we'll see an overnight bounce up. Will take some gonads to be long in the morning....

Or not.

Futures currently down 50 on the S&P (~2%) around 2555. The bid/ask numbers about 1/10th of normal. Staying out of the pool.

Here's a post by Karl Denninger on the carnage, implying the HFT machines are turned off. If the futes are lock-limit down in the morning, it'll be curious what Trump will be tweeting.....

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/...ww?post=232923