Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/index.php)
-   **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=22)
-   -   fastest accurately timed Preakness in history (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=160785)

dilanesp 10-03-2020 05:50 PM

fastest accurately timed Preakness in history
 
Bear in mind, Secretariat's "time" is political. He ran fast, but nobody knows for sure if he ran 1:53 flat. The DRF hand timers clocked him a little slower than that.

Monster effort for the filly.

Tom 10-03-2020 06:01 PM

A FILLY in the Preakness! :headbanger:

Ballsy ride by Robby. Great view of it from the helmet cam behind him.
Authentic never gave up.
The :9: looked like he got wiped out at the break.

The rest of them.....see y'all at Finger Lakes.

rastajenk 10-03-2020 06:49 PM

I didn't have the filly in the top spot, and I didn't have Jesus anywhere, but other than that, I was all over it. :liar:

Vinnie 10-03-2020 07:31 PM

Huge effort by the filly. Darn it, she knocked me out of my single in the P4 and the worst thing is she was my 2nd Pic. Now I don't feel as badly about getting beat!! What a Giant Effort by Swiss Skydiver.

Frost king 10-03-2020 11:36 PM

And that is the sad thing about the Derby, you will never see a filly anymore in that race. As there are too many obstacles, for the filly to get a spot. Maybe they should reserve a couple of spots for the top fillies to fight over. The top two fillies to qualify for the Oaks should have the option to try the boys on Saturday.

Onesome 10-04-2020 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frost king (Post 2658802)
And that is the sad thing about the Derby, you will never see a filly anymore in that race. As there are too many obstacles, for the filly to get a spot. Maybe they should reserve a couple of spots for the top fillies to fight over. The top two fillies to qualify for the Oaks should have the option to try the boys on Saturday.

Disagree, she was 2nd in the Blue Grass, that should have been enough points to qualify for the Derby in a normal year. Make sense that if connections want to run their filly in the Derby, it should be able to hang in one of the big preps.

how cliche 10-04-2020 03:41 AM

one helluva hose race, no doubt. two fast runners emboldening one another to try as hard as they're able, distancing themselves from the rest with every stride.

they gave us everything. we can expect them to be off form for several months now. shades of you vs carson hollow.

FenceBored 10-04-2020 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onesome (Post 2658808)
Disagree, she was 2nd in the Blue Grass, that should have been enough points to qualify for the Derby in a normal year. Make sense that if connections want to run their filly in the Derby, it should be able to hang in one of the big preps.




It was enough this year. She had 40 points which put her at #14 on the leaderboard.

cj 10-04-2020 11:30 AM

I timed the Secretariat Preakness from video a while back, the 1:53 flat is accurate give or take a hundredths.

Spalding No! 10-04-2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2658897)
I timed the Secretariat Preakness from video a while back, the 1:53 flat is accurate give or take a hundredths.

Between June and early October 1973, Secretariat had established 2 world records and a course record.

All other things being equal, could he have run even faster if it was an October Preakness with roughly 5 more months of maturity/progression under his belt?

cj 10-04-2020 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2658938)
Between June and early October 1973, Secretariat had established 2 world records and a course record.

All other things being equal, could he have run even faster if it was an October Preakness with roughly 5 more months of maturity/progression under his belt?

Sure, that is certainly a factor too.

Spalding No! 10-04-2020 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2658943)
Sure, that is certainly a factor too.

Another obvious factor is the relative speed of the course yesterday. However, the vast majority of races were on the turf so it might be hard to get a good sense of it. I'm not sure if there were even any other routes besides the Preakness and the Black Eyed Susan.

I remember that Brad Cox filly (too lazy to try and spell it) going 6f in 1:07+ last year on Preakness weekend. Did they tailor the track for fast times this year?

Then again, were they doing similar back in Secretariat's day?

dilanesp 10-04-2020 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2658897)
I timed the Secretariat Preakness from video a while back, the 1:53 flat is accurate give or take a hundredths.

Did you calibrate the frame speed of the analog tape machine or kinescope machine that made the recording? Because without doing this, it is impossible to know. Unlike modern digital recorders, 1970's equipment was not designed to get the fps precise because they didn't care if playback was slightly fast or slow.

At any rate, even Secretariat's fans at CBS and the DRF did not conclude he ran that fast.

JustRalph 10-04-2020 02:22 PM

Cj, how does this Preakness timing stand up?

Seem accurate to you?

classhandicapper 10-04-2020 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2658944)
Then again, were they doing similar back in Secretariat's day?

Secretariat is before my time as a handicapper, but guys that I've spoken to that are older said they used to really speed up the track for him and the cushions weren't as deep. I'm pretty sure they are deeper now than when I started getting serious in the mid to late 70s.

dilanesp 10-04-2020 06:45 PM

I've always assumed that Secretariat probably ran 1:53 2/5, for what that's worth. That's what the Daily Racing Form's backup hand timer got him in, and hand times were a bit more accurate back then because they still had a flagman who dropped the flag when they crossed the pole. Thus, a good timer in the press box near the finish line should have been able to get a pretty accurate time.

Further, that's what CBS got him in. CBS played Secretariat's videotape alongside Canonero's, and we know Canonero ran an electronically timed 1:54 flat. Secretariat "won" by about 3 lengths, giving him about a 1:53 2/5. See this story:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.c...&ct=clnk&gl=us

I don't think CBS's method was THAT valid, but at least they presumably used the same type of videotape machine (possibly a Sony 3/4 inch machine?) on their replay recordings in 1970 and 1973. So it's at least plausible that their frame per second rates were fairly close. And as I said, it's also what the DRF hand timer got.

Secretariat was given 1:53 flat because he had a lobby. Bear in mind, if it was any other horse other than Secretariat, nobody would have ever gone back and gifted him a retroactive track record. If someone ran back the tapes of Tank's Prospect's Preakness and found he ran 1:52 4/5, nobody would do anything about this. It was only because Secretariat had a lot of fans who couldn't bear to think that their hero may have not actually run the fastest Preakness ever that we even are in this mess.

The bottom line is, that was an actual stakes record performance by the filly yesterday. Whether Pimlico and Secretariat's fanbase ever admit it or not. There's not nearly enough evidence to assume Secretariat ran faster, and plenty of evidence he actually ran slower.

cj 10-04-2020 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659068)
I've always assumed that Secretariat probably ran 1:53 2/5, for what that's worth.

Not much really because it is easy to test now. I did it again today from two different replays. 1:53 flat is pretty darn close.

Spalding No! 10-04-2020 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659068)
It was only because Secretariat had a lot of fans who couldn't bear to think that their hero may have not actually run the fastest Preakness ever that we even are in this mess.

I think we are in this mess because the clocking system malfunctioned back in 1973 and COVID delayed the running of the Preakness until October in 2020.

Otherwise, Secretariat would have run the fastest Preakness ever and Swiss Skydiver would have been in England getting scratched in the post parade for the 1000 Guineas, not at Pimlico for the Preakness...

Afleet 10-04-2020 08:46 PM

of course I had her singled in the KY Oaks. Still can't believe she lost

Afleet 10-04-2020 08:51 PM

I didn't bet the Preakness this year (did play a contest that covered the whole card). The last time I didnt bet the Preakness was probably when I was in college-that was years ago.

jay68802 10-04-2020 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2658897)
I timed the Secretariat Preakness from video a while back, the 1:53 flat is accurate give or take a hundredths.

Both were performances that need to be respected.

cj 10-04-2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802 (Post 2659104)
Both were performances that need to be respected.

I'm just talking about timing the race in 1973. Comparing them doesn't mean anything to me.

dilanesp 10-05-2020 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2659071)
Not much really because it is easy to test now. I did it again today from two different replays. 1:53 flat is pretty darn close.

Again, cj, you are timing off a KINESCOPE. Have you ever looked at a Kinescope machine? Heck, do you ever watched old Kinescoped television shows? These machines ran fast or slow all the time. They weren't designed for timing and nobody in television really cared whether they ran fast or slow because viewers didn't care back then.

CBS' method wasn't great, but it's gonna be far more accurate than you with a Kinescope. Because at least CBS compared them on the same medium. And the racing form, which was there, got it in the same time CBS did.

dilanesp 10-05-2020 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2659073)
I think we are in this mess because the clocking system malfunctioned back in 1973 and COVID delayed the running of the Preakness until October in 2020.

Otherwise, Secretariat would have run the fastest Preakness ever and Swiss Skydiver would have been in England getting scratched in the post parade for the 1000 Guineas, not at Pimlico for the Preakness...

Sure, but races are moved on the calendar all the time and we still count stakes records.

cj 10-05-2020 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659134)
Again, cj, you are timing off a KINESCOPE. Have you ever looked at a Kinescope machine? Heck, do you ever watched old Kinescoped television shows? These machines ran fast or slow all the time. They weren't designed for timing and nobody in television really cared whether they ran fast or slow because viewers didn't care back then.

CBS' method wasn't great, but it's gonna be far more accurate than you with a Kinescope. Because at least CBS compared them on the same medium. And the racing form, which was there, got it in the same time CBS did.

Hand times are impossible even with a flag guy.

I've timed plenty old races and they match very close to the official times when the timer wasn't in question. Give it a try some time.

No, I don't have a kinescope lol.

dilanesp 10-05-2020 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2659138)
Hand times are impossible even with a flag guy.

I've timed plenty old races and they match very close to the official times when the timer wasn't in question. Give it a try some time.

No, I don't have a kinescope lol.

How do you explain CBS running the two videotapes and the difference being Canonero and Secretariat being 3 lengths? We know Canonero ran 1:54. The timer worked fine that day.

If your time is correct, it must mean that the frames per second on CBS's videotape machines were inaccurate. But if the frames per second on their videotape machines are inaccurate, than we can't trust times off video recordings from that era, which gets us back to square 1.

For what it's worth, I timed the 1970 and 1973 Preaknesses on youtube. I got Canonero in 1:56.44 gate to finish, and Secretariat in 1:55.76. So Secretariat's was 0.72 seconds faster, which means... either 3/5 or 4/5 of a second, which would mean he either ran 1:53 2/5 like the Racing Form said, or 1:53 1/5. He did not run 1:53.

He was given that record because he was Secretariat and his fans browbeat the Maryland authorities. You saw the real stakes record on Saturday.

Spalding No! 10-05-2020 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659135)
Sure, but races are moved on the calendar all the time and we still count stakes records.

The classics and major Grade 1s aren't moved on the calendar all the time.

cj 10-05-2020 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659189)
For what it's worth, I timed the 1970 and 1973 Preaknesses on youtube. I got Canonero in 1:56.44 gate to finish, and Secretariat in 1:55.76. So Secretariat's was 0.72 seconds faster, which means... either 3/5 or 4/5 of a second, which would mean he either ran 1:53 2/5 like the Racing Form said, or 1:53 1/5. He did not run 1:53.

He was given that record because he was Secretariat and his fans browbeat the Maryland authorities. You saw the real stakes record on Saturday.

I'll try to find some more time this week, but keep in mind a 1:53.19 would be a 1:53 flat. That is certainly within the margin of error from video timing. Proclaiming the race Saturday as 100% faster is being silly.

classhandicapper 10-05-2020 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Afleet (Post 2659094)
of course I had her singled in the KY Oaks. Still can't believe she lost

I'm not sure the inside was best place to be that day. She spent some time inside. It might have made a difference, but it wasn't one of those days where I thought the rail was clearly bad.

It's always easier after the fact, but that's typically the kind of horse I use.

My problem with the race was that I liked Art Collector going into the Derby for a similar reason, but I didn't want him at that price in the Preakness coming off a foot issue, shoe issue, missed training, and Authentic proving he could run that far in the Derby. So I wound up watching her win at a nice price. I don't feel too badly about it though because I probably would have used her with Art Collector more.

classhandicapper 10-05-2020 06:34 PM

I want to go on record saying I'm not sure who ran faster but I'm pretty sure Secretariat and Sham both would have beaten her. :lol:

MJC922 10-05-2020 08:29 PM

The ride in the Oaks maybe could've been better, the inside was left wide open headed to the half in almost 48 and the jock didn't want to go up and seize the opportunity deciding to sit the pocket. Of course it quickened from that point forward and the pocket then IMO is a rather significant disadvantage because then you're waiting for them to quicken first, only then can you quicken too so you're losing a step, it's a head-start most runners can't afford and many lose because of it, locked inside with the pace turning on and still trying to find a way out of there to assert your own class where you're most able to do it.

Eventually angling out was possible at the top of the stretch, and that doesn't hurt a bit when the fractions look like 46 and 112, however when it's 48 and 112 you're actually losing a step or two to even get out of the pocket, when you do finally get a clear run outside now there's some fatigue from the distance traveled and along with that fatigue you still have to lay down almost 23 flat to get up, this actually is not easy unless you're a very very strong finisher to begin with. So yea pace dynamics decides another race.

The nice thing about the Preakness was they left the inside open again while trying to logjam to the half in almost 48 but this time they didn't wait with her in the pocket, they seized the lead in 47-3 and went on with it from there. Getting a few pounds doesn't hurt while hitting the gas pedal either. :p

dilanesp 10-06-2020 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spalding No! (Post 2659198)
The classics and major Grade 1s aren't moved on the calendar all the time.

Spalding, a "classic" is just another horse race. At any rate, even they have been moved around if you go back long enough.

dilanesp 10-06-2020 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2659204)
I'll try to find some more time this week, but keep in mind a 1:53.19 would be a 1:53 flat. That is certainly within the margin of error from video timing. Proclaiming the race Saturday as 100% faster is being silly.

I never said 100 percent. Though mathematically, if Canonero ran 1:54.00, the fastest 1:54 flat, and timing old videos is accurate, Secretariat could not have done it.

What I did say is that Secretariat was gifted a record without any proof he ran that fast. Even his fans always said he ran 1:53 2/5, not 1:53 flat. Without an accurate time, there was no basis for giving him that time. Which should mean Swiss Skydiver holds the stakes record.

dilanesp 10-06-2020 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2659292)
I want to go on record saying I'm not sure who ran faster but I'm pretty sure Secretariat and Sham both would have beaten her. :lol:

Sure, but so would lots of Preakness winners. The Bid, Affirmed, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Curlin, etc. The point is she ran the fastest recorded Preakness time, and Secretariat's "record" is fake and political.

Tom 10-06-2020 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 2659292)
I want to go on record saying I'm not sure who ran faster but I'm pretty sure Secretariat and Sham both would have beaten her. :lol:

You're not still analyzing Big Red's Preakness performance, are you? :lol:

cj 10-06-2020 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659397)
Spalding, a "classic" is just another horse race. At any rate, even they have been moved around if you go back long enough.

By five months though? That is a big deal for a 3yo. If she did get the record it should have an asterisk. It is like saying a college student set the 100m record for high school.

dilanesp 10-06-2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj (Post 2659587)
By five months though? That is a big deal for a 3yo. If she did get the record it should have an asterisk. It is like saying a college student set the 100m record for high school.

The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.

Spalding No! 10-06-2020 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659620)
The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.

Inaugurated in 1979, the first 6 Pennsylvania Derbies were run near Memorial Day. All others have been run in September or October. 4 of those first 6 were Grade 3 or listed.

When the Hollywood Derby moved from April to November in 1981 it was also moved to the turf course.

cj 10-06-2020 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dilanesp (Post 2659620)
The Pennyslvania Derby and Hollywood Derby, among other 3 year old races, have been moved months. They still maintain stakes records. I see no need for asterisks.

The truth is stakes records are pretty meaningless, but especially for races like the Hollywood Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby. If there are three races where I guess they have some significance it would be the Triple Crown races. It would definitely get an * in my opinion if it was from a race when the horses had a five month advantage.

castaway01 10-07-2020 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom (Post 2659552)
You're not still analyzing Big Red's Preakness performance, are you? :lol:

He's ALMOST ready to declare him a good bet in the Belmont.


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:26 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:26 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.