| letswastemoney |
07-13-2018 10:17 PM |
Los Alamitos Derby discussion
First of all, I know the value in this race is non-existent. Who wants to discuss it anyway?
:1: Draft Pick (3-1) - Decent horse won the Affirmed Stakes over Solomini. Maybe that is not quite such an accomplishment though? He likes to stalk, so he will need another horse to soften up Ax Man up front. His speed figures are kind of average, although there is room to move forward. Some things to like
:2: Blended Citizen (9/5) - What happened in the Belmont Stakes? He just never tried in the second part. If he runs back to the Peter Pan effort, he can win in this spot. His best TimeformUS Speed Figure is a lot faster than Draft Pick (122, 109). Like Draft Pick though, he will need one of the other runners to soften up Ax Man. Maybe stablemate King Cause?
:3: Ax Man (6/5) - Pace Projector believes he will hold an uncontested lead. Stamina is a question. This is a half to Indian Blessing, who stretched her speed as far as 1 1/16 miles when she won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, but really looked more comfortable sprinting. But maybe this field is soft enough that it will not matter. Sometimes horses with stamina issues go farther on an easy lead.
:4: Once On Whiskey (6-1) - Stablemate of Ax Man. Is he here to play bodyguard for Ax Man? Just kidding. Anyways, his numbers resemble Draft Pick, and he only owns three starts at sprint distances, so this will be his first time going long. The dam raced 18 times, 16 of them in sprints. This is a hard read.
:5: King Cause (20-1) - Sprinter. The Laz Barrera effort at seven furlongs is decent, despite finishing fifth. But he regressed speed-figure wise in the Affirmed, losing by 10 lengths. No chance to win.
Conclusion
Ax Man is a talented horse, and he can prove my doubts about his stamina wrong. But I'm leaning towards :1: Draft Pick.
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