Quote:
Originally Posted by Triopstor
(Post 2873222)
1. Why is recouping with longshots flawed? That surprises me.
2. It may become poison but I'll have fun for a while.
Appreciate your comments on RPM headhawg.
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I said the above words BUT I wish to qualify what I meant in an Example for our readers.
THE PLAN
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STEP 1. To wager $2.00 on the best horse in each race that you choose. Not necessarily the favorite. Maybe pass maiden races though. Wager No more than $2.00 though on each of them. Always $2.00.
STEP 2. Total the losses of step 1. Where the $2.00 bet failed in a race. Don't include the winners in this total.
STEP 3. Recover all or just a bit say 50% Losses on Longshot Overlays as opportunity presents itself AND when there are Losses.
For Example:
RACE WAGER HORSE RESULTS
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1. $2.00 on :1: Dingo Dingo Lost
2. $2.00 on :4: My Treasure and try to recover the loss of race 1 on a longshot overlay. There is none so just $2.00 on 4 My Treasure in this second race and the horse loses.
3. $2.00 on :6: Pete's Rocket. Found an Overlay Longshot in a bad post :12: Little Pappi So I try to recover a $4.00 loss on that horse at 10-1 odds. $2.00 only needed on Little Pappi. My selection of Pete's Rocket comes second so this is a $2.00 loss. And Little Pappi comes 4th. So I lose $4.00 on this race.
4. $2.00 on :5: Hope's River at 9-1 odds and I think this is the best horse. And it also is an Overlay. So far we have lost $8.00. So we wager an extra
$2.00 on Hope's River. We have $4.00 on Hope's River to win. The horse won by one length at the wire!
5. $2.00 on what I think is the best horse :1: The Earl There is a longshot
overlay :9: Sally's Girl. But there is no need to wager a longshot overlay because the losses were cleared in race 4. So just $2.00 on The Earl. The Earl wins at 4/5 odds as he was the favorite. And I also thought he was the best horse before the race 5 began.
6. I think the best horse is :2:The Gatherer at 4-1 odds but this is not the favorite. I wager only as the system describes. $2.00 on The Gatherer.
It wins. Pays $10.80. We have no loses accumulated so no other wager this race.
7. I think the best horse is :8: Beautiful Home. Wager $2.00 and the horse
loses. We now have a $2.00 loss to recover next race. There was a longshot overlay in this race but there was no need to wager that horse yet as there is no outstanding debt.
8. I think the best horse in this race 8 is number :9: at 5-1 which is not the favorite. We have a $2.00 loss outstanding from race 7 and there is an overlay longshot :10: at 21 to 1. We wager $2.00 each on 9 and 10 for a total of $4.00. They both lose.
9. The horse :2b: is our choice as best horse. And there is an longshot overlay of 15-1 which is horse :6: We wager $2.00 on both. One wager on the best horse 2b and $2.00 on horse 6 the longshot overlay to recover an outstanding $6.00 loss from races 7 and 8. Both the choice horse and the longshot overlay loses. We lost $4.00 on this race 9. We need to recover $10 on the longshot overlay in the 10th race.
10. We have :5: Together In Peace as the top selection at 4-1. This is not an overlay but is on par. Another horse in this turf race :12: is a longshot overlay of 10-1 Peas In A Pod. So we wager $2.00 minimum on the selection Together In Peace and only wager $2.00 to recovery our top selection and longshot overlay losses from race 7, 8, 9 - which is $10.00. Peas In A Pod wins! We recovered our previous losses with a $2.00 bet on 12. And we lose $2.00 on number 5 Together In Peace.
11. All our losses have been recovered except Together In Peace from the previous race 10. We wager $2.00 on a horse we think is the best in this race 11 - :4: Slim To Win. And we would wager $2.00 to recover on a longshot overlay but there is none in this race. Number 4 Slim To Win loses and our racing day is over. We come back tomorrow with an outstanding debt of $4.00 to recover on a longshot overlay if there is one.
I think the longshot overlay should be 8-1 odds or more. Need a database of thousand and thousand of races to figure this out. If there is 13 or more horses running in the field then maybe put a PLACE bet instead of a WIN bet. It's up to you. Or pass races that have 13+ horses in CANADIAN/USA races.
