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-   -   Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=142423)

CSR 05-03-2018 01:51 PM

Was on the :6: in the 3rd at Churchill. Was 3-1 but the low price on the double. Sure enough he drops to 9-5 during the load.

trifecta 05-03-2018 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSR (Post 2310971)
Was on the :6: in the 3rd at Churchill. Was 3-1 but the low price on the double. Sure enough he drops to 9-5 during the load.

I followed the betting action from the time they loaded until 4 or 5 strides after the gates opened. Here's what I documented (I took cell phone pictures of the TwinSpires feed):

As first horse was entering the gate:
total win pool amount $142,383
#1 - $21,889 15.4% of pool 4/1 odds
#2 - $44,457 31.2% of pool 8/5
#3 - scratched
#4 - $12,737 8.9% of pool 8/1
#5 - $5,678 4.0% of pool 20/1
#6 - $27,919 19.6% of pool 3/1
#7 - $29,700 20.9% of pool 5/2

After last horse entered the gate:
total win pool $154,951
#1 - $23,537 15.2% 4/1
#2 - $49,591 32.0% 3/2
#3 - scratched
#4 - $13,315 8.6% 8/1
#5 - $5,821 3.8% 20/1
#6 - $30,349 19.6% 3/1
#7 - $32,335 20.9% 5/2

4 to 5 strides after the gate opened (and the final pool):
total win pool $196,490
#1 - $25,792 13.1% 5/1 (up from 4/1) (broke 6th and last)
#2 - $59,284 30.2% 8/5 (up from 3/2) (broke 3rd)
#3 - scratched
#4 - $14,274 7.3% 10/1 (up from 8/1) (broke 4th)
#5 - $6,177 3.1% 25/1 (up from 20/1) (broke 1st)
#6 - $55,113 28.0% 9/5 (down from 3/1) (broke 2nd)
#7 - $35,850 18.2% 7/2 (up from 5/2) (broke 5th)

Percentage of final win pool incremental increase that was bet on each horse:
Last pool increased $41,539 (from $154,951 to $196,490).
#1 - 5.4%
#2 - 23.3%
#3 - scratched
#4 - 2.3%
#5 - 0.9%
#6 - 59.6%
#7 - 8.5%

Change in each horse's percentage of pool from the time they loaded the first horse in the gate up until the time they had completed 4 or 5 strides out of the gate:
#1 - down 14.9% (from 15.4% to 13.1%) (decrease of 2.3 divided by 15.4)
#2 - down 3.2% (from 31.2% to 30.2%)
#3 - n/a
#4 - down 18.0% (from 8.9% to 7.3%)
#5 - down 22.5% (from 4.0% to 3.1%)
#6 - up 42.9% (from 19.6% to 28.0%)
#7 - down 12.9% (from 20.9% to 18.2%)

alhattab 05-04-2018 03:04 PM

Interesting read on a successful computer bettor with access to the Hong Kong pools

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

Pensacola Pete 05-04-2018 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alhattab (Post 2311579)
Interesting read on a successful computer bettor with access to the Hong Kong pools

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

A whole thread about this:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=144634


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