RTY Trading Testbed #2 [Record = 1 for 12 | -70.10pts | -$3,505.00 per contract]
 

This is the new home of my RTY trading method.

Will stick 100% to the rules (that only I know...lol)

Hope to be trading this throughout the rest of the year.

These are the numbers from the original thread, minus the garbage I threw in there because I still lacked self-control (meaning, had I actually stuck 100% to my rules, this is what the original thread should have looked like...and it still includes the 21 trade losing streak):

63 trades
19 wins
30% win rate
Profit = +308.20 points or $15,410 per contract
21 trade losing streak from 1/11/23 - 2/23/23 included

I know, I know...the ACTUAL results in the ACTUAL thread are nowhere near that. I'm just telling you what should have been.

Now I am going to try and recreate that magic going forward, live in this thread.

THIS THREAD IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY - NOTHING IN THIS THREAD SHOULD BE TAKEN AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FUTURES CONTRACT - I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL - PLEASE CONSULT AltonKelsey IF YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW HOW TO TRADE

No trade this morning.

Someone asked me privately what I use. I use NinjaTrader

They also asked me what my method is here in this thread.

I'm not going to divulge the specifics...not because I think it's some amazing entry method...far from it...it actually doesn't make much sense to anyone who's been trading for any length of time.

And that got me thinking. I once read a study someone did that kind of proved your entry really doesn't matter. As long as it's something consistent.

What really matters is how you MANAGE a trade once you're in it.

I think that's where the secret lies.

Yes, you can have better results with better entries. But perfect entries aren't necessary to make money.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. My revelations lately have centered around me ceasing to obsess over exits...specifically, predetermined profit targets established at the time of entry.

Once I stopped submitting profit targets at the time of entry, I started to see things more clearly.

You should only exit a trade once the conditions for entering that trade have ceased to exist. Meaning, if you're going long and expect the market to rise, you stay in that trade until those expectations disappear.

That doesn't mean you don't use a stop loss. You most certainly do. That's what makes it easy. As long as your stop loss isn't hit, and the conditions remain which caused you to enter into the trade in the first place, you leave it alone and let it ride.

This is the way you keep your losses contained and on the smallish side, and you let those monster trades develop.

That way, you don't even need to be right 50% or 40% or even 30% of the time.

As retail traders, we're not going to be able to take 30-40-50 trades a day and make money scalping. Just not happening with slippage and commissions and our less than ideal trading platforms and setups.

The only way guys like me are going to beat the game are to make decent scores every once in a while while keeping losses contained.

This allows me to follow the old trading adage of "cut your losses, but let your winners ride"...or something like that.

You'll notice many of my trades in the prior thread had small stop losses. A few of you even said I should consider a wider stop so I don't get stopped out so often. I'm not sure I agree, and I'm going to use this thread to once again live test and see if I'm correct.

I'll add one more thing.

In addition to exiting "once the conditions no longer exist that caused you to enter in the first place," I have found that "time exits" also work well with certain trading methods.

My automated ES method always exits at end of day, no matter what.

That's not a terrible idea when you think about it. Each trading day tends to be different, and if you don't intend to hold for weeks and months, exiting at end of day can work well for a system you are developing and back testing and optimizing. You're always exiting at the same time in every trade that doesn't stop out on you. And you're usually exiting with a profit if you make it to end of day without getting stopped out.

Sure wish I had a long entry this morning...lol

Oh well.

Isn't it weird how the minute I post about regretting not being long...the market starts stalling and looking like it's setting up to go short? :lol:

Here is a link from someone discussing the above...there is more to the story then I remembered...

https://blog.jigsawtrading.com/random-entry-trading

Definite long trade coming up at some point this morning

Interesting that they've tested the 1890 level a bunch of times in RTY since Feb 21/22.

Same thing with the 3890 level on ES (but not as many times).

Will there be one more test in the next hour or so?

My long is on hold for a little bit until I see what happens...but the way this thread's method goes, there is definitely going to be a long at some point today.

LONG RTY @ 1904
STOP @ 1896.50

RTY showing a lot of relative strength vs. ES at the moment...interesting...

Was up all day until the very end...oh well

Stopped out @ 1896.50

Record = 0 for 1 | -7.50pts | -$375.00 per contract

Will be going long at some point this morning

LONG RTY @ 1911.40
STOP @ 1899.00

Not ideal...but going to have to get out of this trade earlier then planned...won't be in front of my screen for the next hour...and don't think holding over the weekend is a great idea given the propensity for this market to turn on a dime lately...

Exit Long @ 1930.70

Profit = +19.30

Record = 1 for 2 | +11.80pts | +$590.00 per contract