R9 Keeneland: G3 Pin Oak 10/19/18
 

14 Fillies will look to take to the gate in the bit quirky 1 1/16th Mile distance on the turf at Keeneland.

:1: Reversethedecision: Her last wasn't horrible last time stepping up to Graded Stakes company. Getting some 'class' relief, and you do have Chad Brown and Castellano. She has shown some promise, just not sure she is ready yet.

:2: Kabella: Since changing barns she has been dreadful. At least the connections will have good seats.


:3: Daddy Is a Legend: Gotta love the name of this filly, and she has been solid thus far. Her last 5 or 6 are more than good enough to compete in here. Can she get better is the real question now.


:4: Mighty Scarlett: Really interesting Brown/Ortiz entry that has never ran less than the distance she'll run today. Always bet,and always in the mix. Doubt we get the 8/1 ML.

:5: Cool Beans: Front-runner will get some class upgrade here. Would likely need really soft fractions, but if there is a guy that can pull it off on this track, then Geroux is your man. Somewhat interesting in that she'll almost assuredly have the lead at the 3 furlong pole.

:6: Beach Waltz: A for sure bomber that will need a hectic pace up front to have any kind of chance. Even then, she'll struggle to pass many (if any) of these.


:7: Colonia: Fantastic breeding, but she launches from well back. has managed decently thus far, and a yielding course is likely what she wants. Not sure she is better than most of these from what she has shown thus far. Interesting tote watch.


:8: Goodthingstaketime: Has been more than competitive against similar in her last 5 outings. Could obviously be due for a decent trip, and a change to Santana could be what the doctor ordered. 1 for 10 lifetime thus far, but not without a shot.

:9: More Fun Again: Won her last two and looked to kind of grow up in her last out. Would need even more massive improvement, but could excite some bottom end exotics.

:10: High Tech: This gal is flat out getting better each time out. At 45/1, she more than beat the :6: last out, and if she keeps moving forward could be a massive bomber. Can't discount, even on top at what should be a month making price.

:11: Sirenusa: 4 for 6 lifetime, and been put through the ringer a bit. Really tough read, and not sold she fits in here.


:12: Get Explicit: Shipper from Woodbine has ran well here before. Hard knocking gal has 3 wins and 7 board finishes in 11 starts. Obviously not the best looking entry on paper, but will be another massive price that isn't without a shot with a bit of imagination in a field like this.


:13: Poetic Charm: Shipper from across the pond gets Mike Smith. Sensing massive underlay on a horse that should be 4th or 5th favorite.



:14: Chipotla: If you are looking for the foreigner, this is the one. She ran really well in the G1 Belmont Oaks, and if she takes a step or two forward, she is more than dangerous in here. Wouldn't be surprised if she is the post time favorite.

:15: Mutabaahyia (AE): Could get in, but is a massive shot.



SUMMARY: I don't see a commodity in here that you can really trust, so I'll just box an Ex and Tri and look for a bomber.


WP: :12:
EX Box: :3::10::12::14:
Tri Box: :3::4::10::12::14:

:1: Reversethedecision: Best races have come on a yielding track. Last running line is strange, might contend, but others are better here.

:2: Kabella: Trainer has proven that he has no clue what to do with this horse.

:3: Daddy Is a Legend: Always has run her race and shows the best figure at the distance. Gets a good stalking position and can contend.

:4: Mighty Scarlett: Improving filly is dangerous off the bench. 8-1 is a pipe dream, but will still be a solid price. The pick.

:5: Cool Beans: Looks to be the lone front runner here and means contender. Can she hang on? Doubtful.

:6: Beach Waltz: Has been bested by a couple others in here. But can turn the table on those, ran lifetime best off the bench in last and shows a solid last workout. Worth a shot at the likely price.

:7: Colonia: Get a so-so feeling about this one. Exotics only.

:8: Goodthingstaketime: Chaser needs the speed to stop and the closers not to run to have a shot here. No thanks.

:9: More Fun Again: For a 30-1 you can't complain about the form. Class is the question. Good play in small quantities.

:10: High Tech: Not a bad horse, just not good enough for this race.

:11: Sirenusa: 4 of 6 lifetime is nice to see. From the outside needs to get a good position early, unlike the last race. See others in side with the same style and will be wide. Not the best spot.

:12: Get Explicit: Best figure I see is at 1 1/2 M. Other figures are not standing out. Also-ran is in the future for this one.

:13: Poetic Charm: Overseas competition at this level proved to much for her. But all off these would be that way. Money Mike is up and that is enough for me. Playable.

:14: Chipotla: Always seems to make a run, and always seems to come up short. Bad draw and does not get a hot pace. No Thanks.

:15: Mutabaahyia (AE): Should scratch even if there is a opening.

:16: HuskersGetTheirFirstWin: The pick of the day.;)

:4: / :3::6::9::13:

:1: Reversethedecision: Always makes up ground but coming from the 1 hole will need an absolute Dream trip to win here.

:3: Daddy Is a Legend: seems to make her own trip and is good enough to win it, just going to make a stand against her in the win spot today.

:4: Mighty Scarlett: My pick. Improving, should like the cut back in distance.

:7: Colonia: Deep closer, could improve slightly and get a piece.

:8: Goodthingstaketime: I think she will get a good stalking position but just isn't good enough to get it done.

:9: More Fun Again: Should be on/near the lead. Looks to be improving, gotta use at a price.

:10: High Tech: see comments on :9:

:13: Poetic Charm: Hate horses like this in these races haha. Money Mike and the horses pedigree is enough to warrant respect. Gotta use because I'll kick myself if leaving her off a ticket beats me.

Ex and tri
:4:
:3::9::10::13:
:1::3::7::8::9::10::13:

Singling the :13: Smith wouldn't be traveling unless the horse is the real deal...1st time lasix seals it although the post does scare me...:5: could be tough on the lead

Pick: four...:1::2::3::4::7:::9::10::11:/:4:/:13:/:2::3::4::8: for 1 dollar...good luck to all

Smith is at keenland for tomorrows Raven Run and Moonshine Memories.

Tough race :13: is a bet against for me, should be overbet from a bad post. Ill take a flyer with :11::12: at big odds.

Betting the :1: to win. Terrible ride last time. Gets a good ground saving post.

May use the :5:. Pace edge and last race was sneaky good (staved off two pace challenges to hold on) and the :8: had a terrible trip last time but I don't like the jock change much. :11: had a really wide run last time could factor in the exotics despite the post.

Against the :7: too much travel and too many great rides thus far. :3: another beneficiary of good trips.

:3::8::10: ex box. :4:with:8::10: ex box. tri box:3::4::8::10: w/p:10:

LDH that was a great call on the :12:

Nice pick

LDH, Nice one!

Amen to that! Bet the race early before leaving to hang out with some company, and used the :7: up and down with all the horses you mentioned on your ticket for the huge exacta. TY