Originally Posted by highnote

I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.

Originally Posted by PICSIX

When Trump wins just buy the dip :)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I agree. But I think the “dip” may be 2000 points in the Dow.

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

And as of 2:30 PM EST, the stock market finally starts the plunge....

• S&P 500
  2,100.46
  -25.69 (-1.21 %)
• Dow 30
  17,954.71
  -187.71 (-1.03 %)
• Nasdaq
  5,118.71
  -70.42 (-1.36 %)

Originally Posted by barahona44

Today's close

S&P. 2111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)
Dow. 18037.10 -105.32 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq. 5153.58 -35.56. (-0.69%)

Looks like the Apocalypse took an afternoon nap. :)

Originally Posted by reckless

We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

Originally Posted by reckless

We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living... :lol: :bang:

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.

Originally Posted by reckless

We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! :lol: Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign... would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless" ..those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in... :faint:

Originally Posted by reckless

I have noticed in my near 30-35 years of investing there are always doom and gloomers out there. The end of the world was always just this close and right around the corner. And the stock market is oh so near over too, just inching toward that cliff so hang on tight.

Originally Posted by reckless

Bought some more GILD today... 300 more shares since my very well-timed and prolific post of November 2 of a generational buying opportunity. My per share cost basis is now just under $75, not counting dividends, which I should count.

Yes, GILD hasn't really joined this rally but my time horizon is in years and not months or minutes. And I have been able to buy more shares of this extremely undervalued, growing company because of its current out-of-favor status.

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

Don't fight the tape! Bought some AMD at around $6.50, and hanging on for the ride.

Originally Posted by highnote

Back on July 11 the Zweig model I keep gave a major buy signal when the ratio of up stocks to down stocks over a 10 day period was greater than 2 to 1. This happens rarely, but when it does it signals momentum caused by heavy buying. The signal is usually good for 6 months and the average increase in the market is 15%.

The S&P was at 2137 that day. Today, it is at 2198 -- up about 3%. I don't see it going up 12% more by January 15, but the rally may extend longer than 6 months and eventually the S&P could hit 2457.

On October 27 there was a small sell signal when the Value Line Index fell 4% from a recent high. I think this was due to the uncertainty of the election.

On November 9, the day after the election, the Value Line Index had risen by 5% -- which was a buy signal. The market had time to pause and reflect and realized that Trump winning would not be the end of the world. The S&P is up 1.5% since the election.

I went to about 50% cash on the Oct 27 sell signal.

On Nov 7, two days before the election, I anticipated a rise in the market. I bought a bunch of shares in 4 different companies with very low prices that ranged from $1.27 per share to 4.30 per share. Those shares are up 5.1% since Nov 7.

1.) I think the market is going higher based on buying momentum and 2.) small stocks tend to outperform large stocks at the end of the year and into the new year due to tax loss selling.

I bought PDLI, CPSS, PACD, and STLY Nov 7 and bought more PDLI on Nov 16.

STLY has been a disappointment, but it only cost $1.27 per share. It's down to $1 now -- about a 21% loss.

PDLI is down 2%.

CPSS is up 9% and PACD is up 32%.

I'm happy with a low risk, 5% gain after only two weeks. My goal is to make 50% per year. Buffett says he could make 50% per year if he only had a small amount to invest.

A 5% gain in two weeks is about a 125% annualized gain.

Originally Posted by reckless

Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by reckless

Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by reckless

We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

Originally Posted by reckless

Highnote.... your stock investments seems to be of the speculative variety. Do you think that's the best way to go forward, especially since we are in a generational buying opportunity?

Originally Posted by reckless

The Trump presidency will prove to be a boom for all stocks, but most definitely very large capitalization companies plus well-entrenched and fiscally sound smaller and mid-cap companies sill truly benefit.

Originally Posted by reckless

Despite the run-up in (most) stock prices since my call on November 2 to begin buying unbelievably cheap common stocks, it's still quite far from being too late to build a long-term portfolio. This bull market has just begun actually.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by lamboguy

what about gold mining company's?

Originally Posted by pandy

But, aren't there uncertainties in today's market that didn't exist years ago? For instance, many American companies have greatly benefited from emerging markets in China, India, South America. Are those markets going to stay strong? The Fed used quantitative easing to artificially keep the stock market from falling. And for the past twenty years the market has gotten used to a very low prime interest rate. Once these new economic policies kick in, the Fed will almost surely have to continue to raise interest rates to protect against inflation. How will the market react to higher interest rates?

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Breaking out to all time highs on the S&P as I type this...viva Trump! :lol:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

My viva Trump was said in jest, thus the :lol:

I didn't think this multi-year rally had much legs left, but it's putting up a substantial appendage today, so far...

Originally Posted by highnote

They are not as speculative as you think. They have fairly sound fundamentals. They are just small companies with low stock prices. So I buy lots of shares. It doesn't take a big move to make 30 or 40 percent.

I bought PACD and CPSS at 3 and 4 dollars a month ago. They are up to 4 and 5 dollars now -- both have about 35% gains.

Also, these small stock trades are what Warren Buffett calls "cigar butts" -- mediocre companies at great prices. You find a cigar butt on the ground and can get one or two puffs for free, you make 50% per year with low risk. Charlie Munger came along and said they're great trades when your capital is limited, but the methodology is not scalable. So now Buffett buys great companies at reasonable prices.

Since I don't have the problem that Buffett has with having so much money it's hard to find places to invest, I can look for cigar butts.

Also, these cigar butts are only a fraction of my portfolio. My core holdings are Berkshire-Hathaway, Philip Morris and Weyerhouser. Those are up 8, 2, and 26 percent since I bought them 2 years ago this month. PM and WY yield about 4% in dividends.




Trump certainly hasn't hurt the market. But stocks have done very well under Obama, too, as the Fed has kept rates low. When he took office the S&P was at 1350. Today it is at 2225. That is a 65% gain. If Trump can do the same the S&P will be at 3671 in 8 years.

My near term target, based on the indicators I use, is 2350 to 2450 between Jan 2017 and Jan 2018.



My biggest "buy" indicator came back on July 12. I believe we are seeing the continuation of the bull market that was signaled back in July. On July 12, the ratio of the 10 day average of up stocks to down stocks on the NYSE was 2.18 to 1. That signaled huge momentum. It is a very rare indicator. It only happens once every several years. The last time it happened was back in March of 2009 -- just after Obama took office. Ironically, it also happened as he was just about to leave office. I will leave it to others to interpret that as they wish.

There were also signs at the end of June that a bull market was forming when the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume reached 9 to 1. That is big volume to the upside. And for the next 10 days people continued to buy which led to the 2 to 1 up stocks to down stocks ratio.

The trend is your friend. :)