Ray---In looking over the picks it looks like that Chatworth guys had there computer buzzing. They had a VERY nice day. The battle is ON. :)

Don't ever count out RDT. He has always been (like most of his picks) a solid closer.

Welcome aboard Augie!
 

Welcome aboard Augie!

MIssed again
 

Got all caught up in the Pens/Habs matchup today that I forgot the post time was a matinee....still have yet to see a race live....no good.

Great job mel and mirror, I hope these are right, I'll correct them tomorrow if not.

GREAT SELECTIONS
 

Both Mel and TM had some nice calls today! great job.

Hi
 

Where does Chatsworth give their picks? Sometimes they're very good, sometimes not. I guess you can say that about everyone's picks. Mark

Hi Bob
 

Bet you enjoyed this weekend's contest. You did a very good job, as always. Mark

They are available on Trackmaster for a fee. I think they are fairly good picks. I find they have some sneaky-good choices.

..only downhill from here
 

Thanks for the kudos :ThmbUp:
Busy past two days and just logged on from yesterday.
I'll bore you guys with the details.
Had to work from 6AM to 12 yesterday. Got home made my picks and submitted to PA.
My wife and I arrived at Tioga about 3:30 had the BBQ buffet which was excellent. Got to to talk to Jason Settlemoir a little bit he was very busy and commended him on the lower takeouts.
I want to say here that the track personnel did a terrific job with such a large crowd. They made the day at the races very enjoyable. I did get shut out on a bunch of races but it was mostly my fault for waiting too long to bet.
After the racing was over we made our usual trip to Coasters bar and got to see many drivers and trainers that we had not talked to since last year and stayed way to late.
We then woke up way to early today and drove from Endicott to New Rochelle and back. (about 6 hours of driving) My son honored at an awards dinner at Iona College had to be there for that :jump: I missed my picks for today :(

Some of you had a great weekend at Tioga :ThmbUp:

I will be joining you next week! Was taking notes this week and creating myself a nice little "Track Model".

If some of you keep hitting like this, we may see some nice ROI's from this site!

My mistake.
 

I forgot Race 5 when I put the info in. Sorry

Great Opening Night! What A crowd
 

Had over 15,000 people Saturday night at Tioga Downs. It was a fabulous night. My picks did ok also. So all in all a good night. I will be the guest Handicapper Next Saturday Night(John) at Tioga Downs So watch me Live!


Have a great week.

Clarification
 

I understand that tracking all the various possible wagers is a pain. Have you arrived at some standard strategy so that comparisons are of apples and oranges? For example, what counts and what doesn't?

If three selections are provided for each race, I assume the top choice is the win position, and the second and third are place position for exactas, or in sequence for trifectas? That is, trifectas only count if the picks are in correct order A==>B==>C? Or are box exacta and box trifecta wagers allowed? Also, is there a facility to calculate reverse exactas (second to first)?

All of this is going to become increasingly important as the meet progresses, because different entrants have different wagering strategies, and keeping track of them all can be a chore.

Specifically, if the implementation strategy is specific for each entrant, in each race, or even for each racing card, monitoring and comparing results is going to be very, very time consuming, and involve a LOT of calculations by hand.

Traynor,

I am not speaking for Ray, but will explain my understanding of it. For 1, it does help his math. This is a fun contest and it would be very wrong for Ray to have to do all the different calculations for every persons specific wagers.

2nd is in my opinion "Boxing" wagers diminishes handicapping ability. A person able to spend $4 a race, and make consistent profits A on top of BC shows true handicapping superiority.

That is my personal understanding of the issue. if incorrect, can somebody please explain lol.

Sorry for that Forgot race 5
 

should have been this for saturday night

r1-197
r2-375
r3-514
r4-1679

r6-682
r7-3421
r8-175
r9-142
r10-9451

Cool!!!! Good luck.

Sorry traynor, I accidentally left you out of the standings.

Code:

---

       
Contest Standings as of May 3, 2010       
 
Race                Win        Win        Win        Win        Exacta        Exacta        Exacta
Summary                Bets        Hits        Return        ROI        Bets        Return        ROI
 
tone3                10        5        $47.90        140%        20        $156.40        291%
Mirror Image        23        5        $73.20        59%        0        $0.00        -
tamaharbor        23        6        $69.60        51%        45        $152.50        69%
TM Chatsworth        23        5        $69.50        51%        45        $162.90        81%
Mel                23        7        $62.10        35%        46        $196.00        113%
Morning Line        23        8        $57.30        25%        46        $109.50        19%
traynor                21        6        $44.10        5%        42        $88.60        5%
Beaucap                13        4        $21.70        -17%        26        $17.40        -67%
JFGHarness        9        2        $14.00        -22%        17        $0.00        -100%
Bobby Z                23        6        $32.00        -30%        46        $8.10        -91%
Augie16                13        2        $11.00        -58%        26        $0.00        -100%
Rays Robot        23        3        $16.10        -65%        45        $8.10        -91%
markgoldie        10        2        $6.30        -69%        8        $0.00        -100%

---

I may have to go to posting the data as an image. (non members won't see it but I can't figure out how to preserve spacing inside HTML code

ABC Response (or a reasonable facsimile thereof)...
 

First, thanks to all who have shown interest in the Tioga races, particularly those taking the time to play the contest and specifically Ray, Mel & Bobby.

It was a great opening day, maybe 10-12,000 people passed through the doors and a good crowd stayed for the live. Handle was pretty much on par with 2009. Sunday's handle was $151,000 all sources, again on par with 2009. The distraction in KY and day-after-swoon considered...OK numbers.

Now...let me try to address the ABC system and our reason for implementing it this season, my opinions. First difference between now and then, almost no trainers drive their own horses anymore. The catch drivers are not gonna sit on one for three or four weeks, with very rare exceptions, not enough of a factor to dissuade us. Then, the pools at our tracks would not support trainers making up the difference by that avenue, again 97% of the time. I am convinced the incidence of class management racing is no more prevalant with the ABC than it is in the NW races. And...if I see a guy that I feel has raced in a fashion that he feels will keep him in a class (late charge to just miss) if the horse merits it he goes up just like the winner.

Then, the racing biz is far more mobile than it used to be. So, we have horses in and out every week (particularly Tioga, where the races are comprised of 70-75% ship-ins each week) and their last five starts swing with the purses offered where they have been racing. We get the horses that are getting beat up at Pocono and Yonkers and are looking for relief, then some MR, BR & STGA shippers to go with our locals. More often than not, a horse coming from YR or PCD that's down to, say NW 2500 L5 will choke a BR/MR/TD/VD horse that meets the same money class. We can now place the horses where they face their own ilk, in our opinion.

Another issue we always face is a shortage of pacing mares. Both places, it has been a struggle to fill mare races for the past few years. To get a race filled, we would have to manipulate conditions to the point that it often looked like we're writing a specific horse into a race...usually it was done just to get enough to go. At Vernon (where I am working this summer) we have four pacing mare classification races this Thursday, more than there has been for a long time.

So far as the favor to shippers and trainers that help you fill a class, I tend to protect the locals more than romance the shippers, personally, and it is difficult to keep a guy in a class that he feels is too high for the horse, and a lot of times they are right. And the dilemma on when to drop and exchanges is a difficult proposition. But...I've been doing this for 10 years and those same situations exist with money classes too...they always have and always will.

It's been my experience that the guys with fairly large stables and years of experience know their horses capabilities...the horse is gonna race 30 times in a year, he's gonna win 6-7-8 races, he's gonna make $45k, he's gonna be in good spots 10X, he's gonna be in 4 or 5 great spots and he's gonna be in deep the same number. That's just how it goes...the smart ones know that.

Yeah, it puts the onus squarely on the race office, and believe me, I could certainly live without the scrutiny. But...I think it can work better than $$$ classes and we are willing to try and judge the results.

That's my story...

Fair enough "Tioga"....A very nice explanation of what the thinking is these days, up there on 17....I will be watching with renewed enthusiasm this year...

I wish you a smashing success this season....You guys have done a good thing with the lowering of the take, and I hope, in time, that the people will catch on, and learn that by getting a better shake at the races, their money will go a lot further....

I hope to get some of "that kash" too...

best,

Do you have more or less simulcasting outlets this year?

The Tioga team
 

Did Tioga have to go up against the Derby last year for opening night? Like what you guys are trying to do.

Update on the contest et al, at the blog.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation....agination.html

Hey Dean, good, good ,good....

best,

Looks like a good weekend of racing at Tioga.
13 races on Friday, 12 on Saturday and 13 on Sunday :jump: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: .

Mirror


They haven't taken down entries for Friday 2009 at their site.

Racing resumes Saturday I believe.

A suggestion to the TIOGA TEAM:

--I saw this idea being used by ELLIS PARK a few years ago. On their website, they had a title something like this:

'OUR ADW PARTNERS'

--They listed all the ADWS where online bettors could send in their bets to their track. I thought it was a great idea. Instead of handicappers trying to search all over the place for an ADW to bet the TIOGA DOWNS races, why not make it easier for bettors, and list the ADWS right on your website?

T2W

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
~"There are these two things you can have in life, REASONS or RESULTS.....REASONS DON'T COUNT."

--Dr. Robert Anthony

Thanks for the accolades, gang. Glad to help out. Especially for a racetrack like TIOGA DOWNS trying to do something positive to help bettors, via the lower takeouts.

T2W

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
~“You have not lived a perfect day, even though you have earned your money, unless you have done something for someone who will never be able to repay you.”

--Ruth Smeltzer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wow thanks Ray, I just clicked on those 3 days and never looked at
the dates :blush: I blame it on the heat:D . USTA site has 12 races listed for Sat.
nothing up for Sunday yet.

Thanks T2W
 

Word of your good deed has been circulated amongus...much appreciated.

It is looking good for a page dedicated to handicapping off our site...have a look over the next day or two and log in the feedback.
http://www.tiogadowns.com/index.htm

Should have the contest info and expert selections up there (as they should be) for the coming weekend's racing.

Twelve pretty good looking (for us, anyway) races Saturday and Sunday is always our strongest. The Saturday quality is much improved over last week, I think.

Bet some winners,
Nick

Is there going to be a new thread for this weeks selections or just post in this thread?

Will, I think Ray should start a new one for each week....This thread is so long as it is....I believe that it will get very confusing after awhile..

"HEY RAY" are you listening....???....What do you think ???

best,

willphorse
Lottakash
and others

Just continuing this thread to a new one wouldn't be helpful, but I would like to see a thread for just Tioga contest(s) picks and standings, so I'll start one later today. Any other thoughts and comments on Tioga's take-out, fan friendliness, wagering (other than contest related) can be posted wherever you all think is best.

Well, Ray,

Takeout for 1 is very helpful, and I wish them luck with it. The way thoroughbreds are going, Some Thoro-cappers may come to the "dark side" if they see a continuing trend in lowering takeout.

Fans are always friendly both on and off. There is 1 handicapper that goes to Tioga I cant stand. I will not mention any names, as I know a few are from the area... but this guy walks around like VIP, and shrugs everybody off like he's "The Man", yet If you see him wager, or see him at the track, HORRIBLE lol. But I guess you get that at every track. Other than that 1 persons "Snub" attitude, seems to me like not just Tioga fans, but most Harness Racing fans are very acceptable! :ThmbUp: Hope it continues.

And 3rd, about the contest. I like the way you're running it Ray. You are out to prove WINNER handicapping talent. Exacta Boxes are much easier to handicap, but a handicapper having to KEY a horse on top of 2 others and hit an exacta, that takes skill. Not only to do, but to make a profit doing it!

Phenomenal Idea!

Also, a quick question for ya Ray. I know you use your "Bot". Do you use universal settings for all tracks, or do you adjust based on track?

As Always Good Luck, and Good Racing :ThmbUp: :jump:

will

The "Bot" adjusts for individual tracks using this table of speed rating adjustments found in reply #6 at


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=64718


and adjusts for post position bias similar to TrackMaster post bias numbers found in their programs under the saddle number. I use all of the races for the past year, I think TM uses only the last 30 days.

Puter Wiz :jump: :jump: HAHA

BTW, Good Luck in the Software Development Challenge! You will be tough to beat!

Yeah Ray, GL with the SDC....

Ray decided many moons ago to develop his software so that he doesn't have to spend his precious time handicapping the races all day, by using his brain.....He uses that to dull all his senses by sipping Amaretto all day....And when he is not sipping, he is usually repairing his Snow-Blower...:jump:

best,

Contest Day 3 Selections (May 8th)
 

1. 6,1,2
2. 2,8,9
3. 3,6,4
4. 1,4,5
5. 2,3,7
6. 8,6,7
7. 4,2,6
8. 5,6,4
9. 2,7,5
10. 5,4,1 entry
11. 3,8,1
12. 6,5,3

Contest Day 3 Selections (May 8th)
rtd
(aka bobby z)

That's good to use the other thread Ray just for picks! Nice idea. I will ask if we can make that a sticky.

A couple of updates:

Tioga's website will have the picks and standings up soon.

As well, Tioga has added $100 to the pot for the challenge. So that brings $300 donated to the Standardbred Adoption Society of the winners choice (mike from Pace $100, HANA $100 and Tioga $100).

Good luck and we hope to see some of you on the live blog/picks for Saturday night harness racing. We'll be starting at 6:50PM. Tioga races will be on tap, of course. Also on tap for Saturday, the Diplomat Final, with NA Cup and Meadowlands Pace eligibles, and the return of 2YO pacer of the year Nebupannezar at Woodbine, and the big one of the evening the $220k Berrys Creek Final at the Meadowlands.

Dean T
 

Where is the live/blog? thanks.