Previous race at Belmont
 

Didn't bet the race but an interesting factoid could possibly be actionable in the future. I believe only three starters in the BS had any race experience at all over the Belmont strip, 7-8-10. A $1-EXB gets you back $48.00. Not too shabby!!

Be Well,
fmhealth

Way too small a sample. However due to the size of the track, jockeys who have experience on the track have an advantage. Jockeys riding Big Sandy for the 1st time often move too early. Before his Belmont, Afleet Alex's trainer had Jeremy Rose ride as many races on the track as he could.

From 2010 to 2019 - just looking at the horses who ran first, second or third in the Peter Pan and the Dwyer prior to that (when the Dwyer, now run in July, was run four weeks before the Belmont), the record is pretty good.

There have been 14 horses who fit that criteria and their record in the Belmont is 3-2-0. The winners were Drosselmeyer, Tonalist and now Sir Winston.

I also saw an angle where the highest last out Brisnet won about 25% of the Belmont renewals. Sir Winston fit that bill. Only plunked $10 on him however but walked away with an extra $100 in pocket after all the wagering.

Here's where one has to be careful with these race specific based angles. I don't see anything unique about a particular 12 furlong race that would favor a highest last race figure over the same angle in any other race. Without a basis these do not hold up over larger samples. That 25% win figure is not much different than most horses with highest last race figure.

I don't disagree. At the end of the day, the fastest horse per Brisnet last out won the race. There is nothing new there. Handicapping 101 and at 10-1 odds. But, if that type of horse never won the race then I'd at least question the utility of speed transferring to the distance.

Right. Which brings me back to my original degree of skepticism about a horse stretching out or duplicating a top figure, though I'd be a little more forgiving than demanding a win before making this a big negative factor.
In this case the fact that Sir Winston's Peter Pan Beyer was only 1 point below the top 3YO figure this year made him look pretty good for at least an Exacta box with Tacitus.

In 1977 I was in my first year doing speed figures and Coastal's win in the Peter Pan was off the charts. Much faster than Spectacular Bid's Derby and Preakness. Coastal won in 1:47 flat by 13 lengths!

Well, I made a large bet on Coastal --$20 on the nose; I 18 or so at the time. I was nervous as hell considering Bid was a mortal lock to win the Triple Crown.

Coastal paid $11 that day.

Needless to say, I never bought the Bid 'stepping on a pin' excuse by Buddy Delp.

Ever since, I always looked at the Peter Pan for my Belmont Stakes hopefuls.

1979. :)

Coastal is underrated. I vaguely remember him having some kind of eye issue that made him want to race along the inside. I thought racing inside cost him in a couple of his races against Affirmed and Bid. That was back in the day when the inside was often bad at Belmont.

Thanks CJ, I appreciate even small errors being corrected. I'll use old age as an excuse -- was that really 40 years ago!! I 'forgot' how long that was. :)