Most horses don't peak until late 4yo or early 5yo season from what I've read. But in this sport, very few of the best are given that chance. Gun Runner and California Chrome are some recent examples, Zenyatta a little further back.

But at no point would I think the tables turn during a horse's 3yo year. The gap just gets less and less to the point more talented 3yos can win against older.

Yep, horses are not physically mature until 5 which accounts for CC and GR running better as they got closer to full maturity. It is not uncommon for show jumpers to be competitive as old as 10. Unfortunately the better race horses are usually retired well before reaching maturity weakening the ranks of the older horse crop relative to 3YOs. I recall one year when the top 3 finishers in the BC Classic were 3YOs as the best horses of the previous years crops were retired so some years (not all) there is a time late in the year when most of the better horses are 3YOs.

Aside from early retirement of the best ones, few race horses remain competitive as long as show jumpers due to the stresses of racing and, criminally, the effects of performance enhancing drugs. :( :mad:

Good Magic Retired
 

Lately, it seemed that with the retirement of the best horses at the end of their 3YO season, by Breeders Cup time the previous years crop had been weakened to the extent that the 3YOs had the advantage. However with the retirement of arguebly the 2nd best 3YsO (Good Magic) after the early retirement of Justify, the current 3YO crop is now also weakened even before the end of the year. I wonder if the older horses will thus regain their advantage come BC time.

Accurate interpretation of what I see on replays. When I'm going good it's because I'm reading clearly what I'm seeing as the horses run around the track.

I voted "experience".

After years of handicapping I have made my most money over the last several years by selecting a stable that also races their own horses. You get more information about the race than the write up in the form. At Kee. R10 Synchrony in the race at Arl. at the top to the stretch he lost his right front shoe. On 10/4 at Pid R7 their horse paid 37.40 to win.