Handicapping Turf Sprints
 

First day (and new thread) on Pace Advantage, but have been following for a couple years. Looking forward to interacting with you all.

Turf Sprints have become more common at my track over the past couple of years. I'm still trying to pinpoint why, but I struggle with these types of races. Could be because they include a variety of horse profiles (e.g., dirt sprinters switching to turf, turf cutbacks, horses off of long layoffs, etc.)

Any ideas that have worked for you all? Appreciate your insights!

Hi & Welcome

Some steps on handicapping.....you can do this with practically all races..

1) Look at replays or read charts for last 2 , 3 days....
See how races ran.....Early, Late, Presser...which is where did the winner come from what position.....also note speed duels, lone speed changes things

2) Read PP's.....look for races that comes close to todays race...
Dont be afraid to look deep in PP's
Note if horse can compete in todays class and has the style that is winning these type races....

If a horse is doing something NEW for the first time....thats the hardest to handicap and you should pass that horse or race

This is a start......

Mike

I like these ideas. Thanks, Mike!

I like to...

1) See if there is a class dropping E Type horse who may not be challenged up front.

2) look for E/P horses who ran well early (above par E2) in past races of this type and put up a LP rating close to or above Par for today's distance/class. (I use BRIS pp's).

If I can find 3 or 4 horses that meet these standards I will make them my contenders.

Here's an example for Race 9 at Gulfstream 6/30

PS. This is for 5 and 5.5 furlong turf races.

Got it. Thanks, Coach. Your advice seems to dovetail nicely with what Mike is saying. I'll focus on assessing class and style requirements (with a tilt towards early speed / presser and enough late punch to hold on).

Know who the turf sprint riders and trainers are at your track.
This is a good site -

http://partners.trackmaster.com/cgi-...=EQB&TRACK=bel

Know that 5.5F and 6-7F sprints are not the same - as Mike says, profile the winners and runners up.

Make sure you keep inner and main/outer surfaces separate.

Don't bet 5.5F at SA unless you use Timeform! :lol:

If you end up eating a lot of tickets, don't get upset - GREENS are good for you!

Thanks, Tom. Couple quick follow-ups:

If I don't have jockey turf sprint stats available, should I use jockey turf route or dirt sprint stats as a proxy? What is your view on this?

Is Timeform better in general than beyer for turf sprints? Or, is this just your observation for SA?

Given how how much green I've been eating on my turf sprint wagering, you'd think I could lose these 15 pounds I've gained over the past few months! :confused:

Thanks again!

Throw a dart and hope for the best, particularly at the inner turf oval at Woodbine where they continue to try and put a square peg in a round hole...Good Riddance to that play

quote:A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!

makes it FAR easier for the speed to triumph all card

once again...useless posts....

Another thing, horse who has already won more than one turf sprint at the same distance is a positive factor.

Winner...bet down to 4/5 odds.

Nice! Hope you cashed it!

I know at my home track(Keeneland) post position stats are very helpful,so you might incorporate some research on post position and results at that distance. I know that in 5.5 turf sprints here the 1 hole doesn't fare very well. Not an end all decision maker, just another piece of the puzzle.

A lot of info , like this, will be in Bris Utimate PP's.....